Update: 3/30/20 11:00am EST. ES 2634.50 (June 20 futures) needs to be exceeded to confirm an up leg is still occurring.
Pull Back Likely Completing
Just in from cnbc: 3/29/20, (analysts are giving up)
"The Market Is So Haywire......" Note- we have not given up, (yet)
Even Glenn Neely who is an award-winning analyst is finding challenges with the current moves. (note: when the link opens, the email request is not ours)
"JP Morgan says the market rout is probably past it's worst now" .. hope they are right but would like to see the chart set-up they are looking at.
Post-
The detailed analysis that is being done at VectorSpike is solely based on historical and current data, patterns and estimates (with some boldness required in the decision to publish). Wherever an opinion has overreached into data, the data directive always comes back with the correct result (as long as there are no data errors, mis-reads etc.) So going on that premise, which is the intended direction of this blog, another bold projection possibility is now showing up on the radar and should be presented for review no matter what our opinion may be. Is it infallible? -nothing ever is that but it is a possibility when looking at alignments supporting the idea:
The supposition is based on a unique-looking structural formation (internal vectors pattern) that was observed over a period of 2 or 3 days starting on 2/28/20 ('small 'A'). The formation extended to 3/4/20 (small 'B' top). Then a strong continuation down trend ensued.
A very similar and much larger (3 times the size) formation has been spotted beginning 3/23/20 (smaller 'C' to 'D'). It may be trying to complete somewhere above 3/28/20 closing prices (small 'D', large 'B'). If the pattern completes in a similar fashion (so far it is), then the possibility of a strong continuation of the down-trend also rears it's head.
Those who follow the blog will have seen the projection presented on 3/2/20 which was positing that the 2019 low could be taken out quickly. It was not a light decision to publish that idea. The actual speed with which it did take out lows surprised even us. Again- it was not an opinion but a proposal based on an analysis of collected patterns and data. The current proposal has been completed using a similar approach.
Motley Fool just published an article recommending buying the down market now- referencing how the opportunity was right to 'make a million'. This is foolish (not just 'Motley Fool'-ish) and reckless advice to the general public. Even if a long-term bottom had printed, there needs to be an appropriate period of time for the bearish leveraged etf's to demonstrate a MACD that has printed a crossover down and preferably below it's daily chart zero line. VXX has just now crossed over on the daily but is extremely high and miles away from it's zero. An unsafe environment for anyone not experienced to go long. The weekly on VXX is even more dangerous for anyone considering a long term long investment. It is elevated so high it is even giving us a nose bleed and a long way from looking like turning or even pausing.
Having said that- the likelihood of a huge move back up after the current leg down does conclude is in the outlook. Expectation is that that move could hit between ES 3500-3700+. - This possibility is now under scrutiny in view of the current size of moves so we are reassessing the macro patterns to see if it still fits. That does not matter too much at the moment as the prevailing pointer is down and until a conclusion at a lower price level occurs, it is not an immediate priority only a possibility.
As has been stated here repeatedly- the moves are going to be like no one has ever seen before. Look at the length of the daily candles in the current environment- many are longer than previous total monthly moves. Various MACDs are having some difficulty staying relevant right now using default settings- that may become more difficult going forward which is why a more meaningful analysis along with empirical-based strategies comes into play. The signals employed here are of an empirical nature so the scale has had very little negative effect on the basic premise used. We have had to expand one or two parameters to accommodate larger values but otherwise they are behaving as they do in a more 'normal' scale market so the hope is that it continues to keep us all on the right side.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
See Important Long-Term VIX Study
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
The alternate scenario is that a small 'E' terminates the move somewhere just below the small 'C' and that position also becomes the large 'A'.
The alternate scenario is that a small 'E' terminates the move somewhere just below the small 'C' and that position also becomes the large 'A'.
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