Thursday, March 12, 2020

Megaphone Bottoms Hit! Look For Strong Bounce


EOD: Exact Fib Alignment may have been required:  Note- the '0.38' alignment often occurs in a zone anywhere between 0.40 and 0.42 which is where the previous chart posted had it located. About 50% of the time the market seems to require it to be exact.We will see what the-follow through does at weekly closing before it can be called with any credibility. The market is living up to the statement that was posted-  "usual tool parameters not working in 'normal' ranges that everyone is accustomed to". Also, we now have a possible bounce zone #3 of 3? (or is 4 [or more] required this time?) 

See alternate chart below this. The Global Trading Signal does not look disturbed- there may need to be more downside before it registers a bottom. Plus the megaphones appear to be busting out of their lower trend lines. HOWEVER SVXY hit a fib alignment at 32.6 which pushed the trend line out a wee bit. Exact hits on megaphone trend lines are a rarity as we mentioned a few weeks ago when the first megaphone was being analyzed. It is entirely likely that the trend line did require to be inflated outward. That has been seen many times before so we remain open to that possibility. (A similar fib alignment situation in the megaphone may exist in SPX)  Note: 2448 target zone extends to 2432 using tool alignment tolerances







Original post
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
See Important Long-Term VIX Study

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/6/20, 3/9/20,    ?   } x 3**
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report 

Critical Target Zones Hit On Megaphones: Note that a 'strong bounce' in this market may only consist of a low hanging bear flag. It may even be printing as we post. In fact SVXY looks to be penetrating it's lower trend line. There is a bigger megaphone waiting. See below.

The Global Trading Signal continues to not show any real disturbance (fear) - no matter what the headlines say regarding panic, the data does not lie and at a very fundamental level there appears to be a disconnect between sustained fear in the signal and price moves. So much so in fact that we have been doubting the signal and were proven wrong as the drop persisted until it budged somewhat. The McClellan summation index remains at fairly reasonable moving average levels even though there is a rapidly descending component. This may be where the disconnect has it's origins, in part. There isn't any real conviction yet that these market price moves have any meaningful purpose (up or down). This may be a manifestation of basic attitude at the height of a super-cycle wave 3. Perhaps the 'experts' have thoughts on the subject. Regardless, this lack of deep level concern in the signal leaves the door wide open for continued market drops going forward until there is a better response in the signal.









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