Original post-
Some posts ago it was eluded to how 'normal' trading indicators will no longer fit parameters in quite the same way as everyone is used to. The spate of market circuit breakers tripping is going to become the new 'normal' unless market makers etc. decide to completely pull the plug at various spots which they can also do. It will reach a point in the not-too-far future where some redesign will no doubt have to be introduced as it will look and feel like a crash every few weeks- and the moves will get bigger! (If the long-term outlook proves correct)
There is an excellent article (courtesy etf.com) on the subject- details here
On the hopeful side- there should be temporary relief medium-term when the current leg hits it's lower target in the megaphone and a run up will then be expected to reach for S&P 3500 or thereabouts. After that occurs- watch out again as it could be off to new lows not seen for a long time. Please read all the links below if you haven't already.
Is a multi-year top coming? - see very last analysis update at bottom of page.
See Important Long-Term VIX Study
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , 3/6/20-void, 3/9/20
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing
Today's Price Action- and target zones: Positive divergence on the advance-decline (nyad) daily MACD that began yesterday followed through today. Could be a bear flag just as easily in this market! Regardless, there will most likely be a downward continuation soon enough. The market has to eat to survive and perhaps the easy pickins are immediately overhead at least for a little while. We will see.
Today's Price Action- and target zones: Positive divergence on the advance-decline (nyad) daily MACD that began yesterday followed through today. Could be a bear flag just as easily in this market! Regardless, there will most likely be a downward continuation soon enough. The market has to eat to survive and perhaps the easy pickins are immediately overhead at least for a little while. We will see.
Referencing the mega-structure shown below:
The prior low 38.12 (2018) was taken out (35.56) and currently 40.31, Just like in 2015 and 2018- a huge spike in volatility in a matter of days that is retracing a swath of prices in volatility derivatives and to a more or less extent in market prices that took a year(s) to establish. A vivid example of 'reversion'. Even if you don't subscribe to Elliott Wave theory- it can best be described as looking like a high degree set-up and Neely and some others would have us believe it is a super-cycle degree wave 3 that is ending with a corrective leg up at it's termination which is why it has formed a megaphone essentially. Oddly enough, it possibly has not finished printing it's all-time highs yet (later- of course). That event will probably be enough to totally confuse everyone who is not fully aware of the potential set-up.
It is also best to not assume that the market cannot morph any which way it may choose going forward. The market has to be analyzed using all the items that have shown to contain substance both historically and currently. It is required to put in the work necessary to see the bigger waves coming. They do display a warning sign. Never use opinion. This method mostly has worked reasonably well to date. Taking your eyes off the data, even for a short while can smack you up side of the head. It is best to let the market control the moving pen in the game of 'pictionary'. The successful observer is able to hold close to the individual turns as they arrive and respond appropriately- not in a knee-jerk fashion but like riding a surf board way- always watching where that next significant wave action is coming from. Hopefully the posts will help to keep some sense in all of it.
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