This Is The Real Reason For A Market Bounce

 Please everyone- stay safe. Don't be cavalier like some and think you are above it all.

See "Original post" below the chart.

Update 3/15/20: 8:00pm EST. Global Focus Signal: Exhibiting 'Concern' so far. ('Concern' may encourage a low price in ES to print somewhere either higher or lower)

Let's think about the market status in terms that do not require any concerns over events outside the market. We agree that anxiety, panic, fear and more importantly- the desire to go forward in a profitable motion all play their part. Currently fear and uncertainty will be creating the log-jam. Most likely, the majority of the decline has been connected to a 'no bid' situation where prices keep falling to the next bid level in free fall. Once a bid zone shows up, prices should park somewhere in it. We may be closing in on confirming that area but it is not for the faint-hearted. As in a real log-jam, the pressure behind it has to reach a level enough to cause small movements that begin to amplify until full run-away mode kicks in and a surge in price occurs. We've already had one. The next one will most likely go further. This is assuming that the lows are in. We will comment on what we believe the vectors are indicating at that time. 

Short selling restrictions and market circuit breaker events have taken control effectively making the market go in and out of the dark for a while. -As was projected on a recent post.

If the low is already in, these are potential projections- (Warning: the charts are strongly indicating "down"). Somewhere at or above 3000, assuming this leg makes it that far, extreme danger will be the status near where 'celebrations begin'.

Original post

Seems like everyone becomes a market analyst when there is blood in the water but calmer hands are on the tiller here. The truth is that these moves can be seen to be coming just by using all the brilliant tools provided to us by some remarkable mathematicians and data analysts throughout the years. We should always acknowledge them. There are many. If there was no access to charts there would be no observations to post on- simple. The crew here are regular humans (and a few machines thank you very much). The market is a monetary-driven creature nothing else. It has no intrinsic awareness of viruses or relief packages despite what it looks like. Nor does it have any opinion. The moment we forget that- well the road is littered with failed trader apprentices. When you see the train coming, either get off the tracks and sleep nights (recommended) or find an appropriate place to try and jump on (apologies to our railroad friends). Here is the real view that's all we need to look at-

Check back this weekend- we will be posting the latest price moves analysis.

"Biggest 1-day rise in the whole of human history" -in two weeks time- ""biggest 2-day drop in the market...ditto.. etc.." the hyperbole by the popular press is totally useless in this market. The scale settings no longer work. Just zoom out enough until the current candles are the same size as those near the top were when you zoom in up there but be aware of the threat or benefit (if you are on the right side) to the portfolio when you do that. It has been stated here right from the post "Big is About to Get even Bigger" on 3/3/20 so readers of this blog got the 'heads-up' on what was about to happen. There is no 'normalize' button for charting neither is there one for the market itself! Use the Average True Range or Standard Deviation to be aware of where the price swings are. Please. Don't get wiped out. 

An article was written recently by some investor entitled "How I Doubled-down on VXX shorts",- he had begun shorting VXX some weeks ago prior to it moving up around 100%! Either he was only in cash or the margin call would have destroyed the trade. Either way- that was entirely a fool-hardy move. Didn't see a follow-up article. There will be better set ups coming. Only when everything aligns does anyone want to pull the trigger in this environment. Don't get drawn in easily. For those with bravery- you might want to trade at more risk-appropriate opportunities this year. The chance of the market actually becoming a part-time live venture in the near future looks entirely likely. Not sure how that will work but it will need to happen to enable price discovery and prevent (slow down) the implosion that will be coming. Hope the charts are being misread but so far, that looks to be a forlorn hope as they continue confirming the projections.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here

See Important Long-Term VIX Study

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)

..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/6/20, 3/9/20,    ?   } x 3**

This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.

Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report 

Daily and weekly positive divergences abound: note the future drop and bigger up move that is projected. And when we say 'projected' it is the charts that provided the compass not us. If the retrace goes deeper, it will require a re-analysis at that time. Even though there was a large, timely up-move that even seemed to align with fib impulse down extensions, there may need to be better form in some of our analytical criteria before we are convinced it is sustainable. It could be that that last move is all that there is before a new low is hit even a fractionally lower one. That would inflate the positive divergence even more. Or- the low may hold but a close retest may be required, bounce #4? The charts in the past would have had some subtlety now they are screaming 'down'. Much better to not jump before looking twice in this environment.

Here's what was posted previously- from 3/3/20. This chart did not 'know' that a virus would hit hard nor that a relief bill would be passed. Unless it 'knew' the future. hmm.. Alternate explanations anyone? (btw- other charts and data were used in conjunction with this info prior to the projection being published. Never use anything in isolation. Put in all the work necessary first until all data 'agrees' or supports the conclusion. It is all about statistics and historical examples. Even then- double check and triple check and try to debate the conclusion, If it passes those tests well odds probably just tipped in your favor)