Corrective Is The Near-Term Word / Updated Projections

9:46am EST: There is a 3-day positive divergence developing on inverse-VIX with today being day 4 if it continues. Upside is still limited based on the current set up but buyers are buoyed by the vacuum that's being filled above.

Original post-
Very little outside the time and amplitude waves / frequency cycles that drive celestial and earth-bound events matter inside the trading fraternity. Think of these 'cycles' as very reliable influences if that makes for better understanding and acceptance. It's not even a 'market' decision. We each make a choice in regard to buying and selling but only as a reaction to the master forces driving nature and human events. Understanding the barometers and thermometers that tell us what is likely happening with the weather inside is key. Even a country with the largest land-mass in the west or east has little to no effect on waves already set in place apart from short-term whipsaws. Stick with discerning the data. It's what we've got.

If the analysis is still on track, it looks like a structure is still in it's early stages and hasn't yet 'taken-off' to the downside or anywhere else really- whether a diamond is building or not. The next decline could give the structure a bottom [of an apex?]. Expectation is for this structure to get even larger. A terminal top may appear at or slightly above the all-time highs later in the year / early-mid '23?. That is, according to the wavelengths from pre-1995. There is no other magic [or sadly, invasion] involved.

What we've got right now is mostly air rushing back in to fill the vacuum left by the steady unwinding from big players. They aren't done yet in either direction.

A target high estimate date is for Friday 3/4/22 +/- 1. It could also be a low or an event. As it closes in, a better understanding will probably become clearer from VVIX movements at that time. Increasing VVIX will be a heads-up for a potential retrace top especially if an adjacent turn signal prints [market down] in either an index or a volatility instrument. The next potential high date window after that is 3/23/22 +/- 1.

Expect the news to change and be tied to market events as the week proceeds- apart from knee-jerk whipsaws, not much to write home about while trying very hard to draw that connection. You could be studying the waves from inside a cave with no news feed whatsoever and perform respectable analyses. There are also war cycles proceeding as separate entities although that is a horrible concept and sometimes they overlap with market cycles where the phases get close - peak to trough, peak to peak, other alignments at various degrees etc. This is often how the 'cause-effect' in the general consensus is created.

Technical comment: A potential fourth hard leg 'g' down is being assessed - [7-wave corrective a-b-c-d-e-f-g decline] OR: [readers will know we push the envelope out if data supports it even 50% = moving to 'b' or 'd' - 'd' may have the edge.]:

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More Indicator Ammo - Could Be Huge

See latest post 2/28/22 Corrective is the word

2/27/22 8:32am EST: Just a quick heads-up on the move up that has occurred from the recent calculated mkt low / 4hr frequency count number [9+1] posted here: the very short-term dates 2/28 thru 3/2/22 +/-1 are potential event date zones so a pullback might fit either zone which do overlap each other given date tolerances. Lots of compacted date alignments are in focus reflecting the current volatility [mkt up or down]. In consideration of more downside pending according to current analysis, caution is advised on this retrace. More likely, a bit more time will be needed to create a meaningful position for any decline to begin, if that is the intent of the developing patterns.

Original post-
VVIX index or 'volatility of VIX' may at first seem redundant but when used in context with target estimates either dates or price levels, it can flag a strong response in proximity to those locations and also during those impulsive days. It acts almost like an accelerometer flagging sudden changes in positions- not usually a positive at extremes. See recent patterns. Not convinced that a terminal top has arrived yet but everything is looking like a **'medium'-sized generational top is about to print perhaps in the fall [early-mid '23?]. A high degree wave 3 top that possibly corrects moves up from the 2007/2008 high. The current moves are likely part of the unwinding of positions that leads towards that scenario. 

**'medium' as being considered relative to wave 5 being the end of a major up leg from a very deep starting position in the stock market wherever that may be [somewhere prior to 1995].

Looking at the very bottom chart note the lower panel SVXY daily / weekly, odds are that when that pops above it's current highs later on there will be a reckoning. That is typically how it has behaved at every degree level.

Live environment -
The short term leg decline count did conclude where expected albeit right up to the edge. There is a deficiency on the larger degree decline count which is why there seems to be more downside to complete it successfully. The depth can be estimated using fibonacci extensions.

Tech note: top target >= turn signal [mkt dn] date zones: Wed 3/9 - Sat 3/12/22 [+/-1, range: Tue 3/8 - Mon 3/14/22] OR SOONER..watch is active- index or volatility t.s.

See also higher degree pattern / likely unfolding diamond structure

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More Downside Likely On Tap

The short term leg decline count did conclude where expected albeit right up to the edge. There is a deficiency on the larger degree decline count which is why there seems to be more downside to complete it successfully. The depth can be estimated using fibonacci extensions.

Tech note: top target >= turn signal [mkt dn] date zones: Wed 3/9 - Sat 3/12/22 [+/-1, range: Tue 3/8 - Mon 3/14/22] OR SOONER..watch is active- index or volatility t.s.

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More Targets

2:14pm EST: A long-term and local time frame wavelength study is indicating the retrace could top around 3/4/22 +/- 1 [to be determined] date zone and continue to decline into 3/21/22 [to be determined by a wave count in the current down leg]. Turn signals may print at the end of this retrace leg up but this far down the structural decline may not print a clean market up signal until after the final bottom prints.

12:11pm EST: Double-checking the wavelength using the formula for a market low date is calculating to today's date +/-1 so that leaves tomorrow for a technical completion. A turn signal up in the market will be expected to follow soon after. Other critical indicators seem to be supporting. This leg is one of several in the sequence of the diamond and more structure is likely to print going forward. If a successful turn signal materializes, the next leg up could move towards the center zone of the diamond or more. A difficult turn is required to occur first. The threat of more downside is likely even with a retrace up.

The projection marches on unhindered. Technically it is now count #10 of 9 on the waves [ 9 +/- 1 tolerance = 10 still valid]. Signs of continuing into weekly closing through Friday. Breadth on weekly may be showing a leaning towards positive divergence as new low prices print. Likewise, inverse vix is showing a developing positive divergence. A turn signal [mkt up] somewhere near here is still expected. A longer time-frame through Sept '22 / mid-'23? is still in focus. Major tops take a very long time to unwind. Put-call ratio is not showing distress beyond an elevated status which is not a positive in this set-up yet.

See this post for original longer term projection regarding the diamond pattern. [lower chart on page that opens]

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Still No Turn Signal

The projection marches on unhindered. Technically it is now count #10 of 9 on the waves [ 9 +/- 1 tolerance = 10 still valid].

See this post for original longer term projection regarding the diamond pattern. [lower chart on page that opens]

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Close But Upside Not Verifying

EOD: A fibonacci full span has alignments printing at 0.0 / 0.38/ 0.76/ 1.0 [1.0=4178.50 is pending]. Count #9 of 9 looks to be printing after hours which technically makes it count #10 [#9 +1]. The fib span laid out has failed so the next plot lower is ES 4112 zone which is a vector extension wave 3 from the leg that commenced on 2/22.

12:00 PM EST: Mid-session aligns with count #9 of 9 so there could be a reaction.

Upper Live chart: [ES] Option for one more down move to finish is 50%. No turn signal [market up] has printed yet. Maybe today. However, even a correct strength index/volatility turn signal is not yet sustainable for very long as the v.spike indicator is very low and not favorable for upside to continue for longer than short term at these levels. Also- the larger down leg frequency does not appear to have concluded [start 1/3/22 or sooner] at it's wavelength target date or decline count.

This could be in a stealth 3-leg decline with part [ii of iii] of the second leg about to print and the final third leg [parts] yet to come. Perhaps then a trip higher into Sept '22. It would certainly fit with the market situation at a larger degree akin to a major topping process. Mood and put-call suggests protracted correction prior to a major terminal top which could be a long way off but more relative short-term declines to come before a turn-around upwards of any real strength. Likely many big participants are unwinding overdue long term positions. 3/27/22 has been a long term target date zone for a while now and alignments could be heading towards fulfilling that event date- either a high/accelerated decline/low. Better focus will come as that date gets closer.

Bottom Chart: These target calculations will continue to be reviewed as advancing patterns develop. There is also a long term target into June '23 but it is unclear what that event might be [terminal/other high, or a low]. Several experienced analysts are projecting this year for the terminal top [including here] - contrarian thinking often wipes the table clean of all these ideas first so it may need to wait for 'everyone' to give up on that idea first whether Sep '22 or June '23.

"Excessive fear and paranoia tend to drive out useful judgement."

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Potential Big Picture Timeline / Targets

Latest deep review on all time scales [long. medium, local] looking at wavelength criteria / formulae is pointing towards Sept '22 for a final top to print. Coincident with that wavelength target date shows an alignment with the 8.6 yr cycle x 1.75 from 2007 top. Quarter cycles are also points where events can and do occur frequently so this conjunction should be noted. 

These target calculations will continue to be reviewed as advancing patterns develop.

Live chart: lower targets are in focus from 2/18 chart layout. Weekly breadth is showing a positive divergence so this next low in the target zone could create a large response upwards. The current diamond lower trend line is approaching and that also supports the bounce scenario. After the bounce, possibly a new apex low could print creating another take-off point for the expanding diamond structure. This is likely to go on for a while.

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Retrace Likely To Commence - Watch Active For A Turn Signal Down

See latest post 2/21/22

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ES About To Enter High Target Zone - Projection

EOD: Testing triangle / lows. No closing 'next-higher-degree leg' turn signal [mkt down] in either the index or volatility instruments yet but probably getting closer. Possible more down tomorrow according to closing signals: a-b-c down completed today.

10:35pm EST: About to test the triangle center at 'b'. Previous triangle backtest on 2/8/22 at 'b'  broke up and then failed. It then created this current triangle on 2/14/22. That particular date aligns with a frequency target so there could be a reaction [new leg starting up or turn signal market down]

Once the high target zone is entered, a turn signal [mkt down] is expected. In a second study, the potential for the diamond apex to print lower is being looked at. Evidence is definitely pointing to that as a possible scenario. [see bottom chart- looks a tad outrageous but that never stopped us before- more data is beginning to show up in favor]. Either way, the diamond looks to be holding it's trend lines.

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Potential Directional Change Target Area

EOD: Nominal/marginal continuation [mkt up] signal printed at the close. The volatility instrument components were strongest but values for the index signals were less convincing so upside has limits. This fits with a nearing high target date referred to below.

3:29pm EST: A local session span frequency is targeting a high date for tomorrow 2/17/22H +/-1 [1/3/22H>1/26/22L<2/17/22LH]. This could stretch to Fri 2/18/22. A turn signal [mkt up/down] watch will be in effect. Odds favor a turn signal [mkt down] from high date frequency targets that confirm with new highs on or near the target date.

Update 2/16/22: The small continuation down attempt signal that printed on 2/14/22 could be a heads-up which has an equal chance of setting up a decline to a cash bottom in the SP-500 diamond print. That signal could begin to set up from a market high today, 2/16/22 [pre-open?] followed by a small decline / retrace up - then the signal [mkt down]- or yesterday's cash high was it and a signal [mkt down] prints at today's close or later. The timing 'looks' right as far as maintaining diamond structure symmetry. 

The recent thought was that the symmetry cannot continue to print so precisely and yet the market seems to be inclined towards that objective so far. Volatility over-reacted yesterday so a little retrace up in the market is on tap.

Less favorable odds:
Potential pullback [mkt lower] could set up a turn signal [mkt up] most likely from the gap close in the cash market. UPRO price 59.38 / 59.13 are fib extensions that would close it's gap.

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Set Up To Initiate A Turn Signal- Projected Targets

Update 2/16/22: The alternate small continuation down attempt signal that printed on 2/14/22 [which is a target event date] could be a heads-up which has an equal chance of setting up a decline to a cash bottom in the SP-500 diamond print. That signal could begin to set up from a market high today, 2/16/22 followed by a small decline / retrace up - then the signal [mkt down].

Original post:
Potential pullback could set up a turn signal [mkt up] most likely from the gap close in the cash market. UPRO price 59.38 / 59.13 are fib extensions that would close it's gap.

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New Special Pivot Has Printed

Bottom Chart: More confirming data shows the likely approaching large degree event. Which ever way it goes, it is likely to not be small. Not the end of the market- that will only occur at the end of life on the planet as we know it. The diamond has a reversal aspect to it at the moment [market top]. A new higher Apex top would change the aspect to positive [continuation up likely].

Live mkt: A turn signal [mkt up] has not yet printed to confirm a bottom in this leg. That should be close from everything that's showing at the moment.

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New Diamond Offspring Or Larger Failure Of Symmetry

Looks like a new, positive-oriented diamond offspring is being shed inside the mother. This already occurred once before but on the negative side just prior to the apex drop. If the analysis is mis-read, that will soon become apparent.

ES 4353 fib target has been near-enough hit pre-open. First stop for a low to have completed printing is 2/16/22 so there is short-term wiggle room for more decline if required but the largest bite in this mini-leg could already have happened. Next target date from the high-dates frequency calculation is Tues. 2/22/22 +/-1 where an event might occur [new local high or other event]. 

Blog-sphere looks somewhat 'doom-ish' - however the Fourier transform [frequencies] pay no attention as they dance merrily on their way.

Side technical note: clearly demonstrates how functions using Pi constant can drive what is seen in market patterns via frequency components. This is a simple fractal example. What we have is more complex made up of several frequency patterns underneath that create a unique enclosing envelope. Pragmatically, it isn't necessary to find them all, just the resultant impulse frequency that creates the higher amplitude moves at any given time like the center of the diamond [just printed]- it began and ended with index turn signal combinations that told us where we were most probably in the pattern development.

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Friday 2/11/22 Chart notes- The decline from 'e' is overlapping a few points on the first low vs the third decline origin [4520]. The decline so far could be an 'a through e' down unless a higher degree decline is occurring and it's at '3' out of '4' down.

Diamond Pattern Precisely Moves On - Note This Set-Up

A lack of a volatility turn signal in the face of index turn signals looks like more diamond construction. A higher degree break lower could still happen but odds favor a volatility turn signal first. Perhaps another retrace attempt towards another volatility low. The width of the diamond looks like more is required if the apex just printed. Caution is urged especially if a volatility turn signal prints sooner rather than later.

If a high degree top is setting up, a span of 7.5 months is nominally how long the top developed in 2000. The current diamond structure span of about 3.5 months is on a par with a top at a little lower degree than 2000 of a total span say, of 5.5 months [terminating April '22] or 63% in now [close to a fib golden ratio value and an event printing coincident with that estimate].

Potentially a new leg up is starting with the break-up printing part of the new leg and a pullback to the previous existing trend line to base it at a higher Apex low. Meanwhile, index turn signals are driving what appears to be a whipsaw but technically, that does not seem to qualify now.

A potential 'event' date zone calculates to *2/14 and 2/21 - 2/22/22 whatever occurs, if anything. Put-call ratio finally reacted today at 1.12.

*Note- a 2/14 +/-1 event could already have occurred on Fri 2/11 [2/14-1day]. If not, that leaves Mon 2/14 or Tues 2/15 [+1] for the real primary event to occur, if it hasn't already done so.

An index or volatility turn signal [market up] will need to print to confirm that this recent decline has completed otherwise a new bottom needs to print or the structure is done and the terminal move is underway. As can be seen from the inset on the bottom chart, bullish volume vs volume during drops is still at a good level so far. The higher volume level overall also supports the criteria associated with a typical diamond structure. Succeeding higher degree tops are built on solid bullish momentum until the tipping point arrives.

Second chart down: Lots of options on the diamond where the 'X' could either be printing in the apex leg that has not yet bottomed or it is at alt.1 or alt.2. Data supports some more to go whichever option is trying to print. A volatility turn signal [market down] is the most likely terminal key at this point.

Bottom chart strongly supports a low is close, whatever the state of the declining leg happens to be relative to the bigger structure.

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Chart notes- The decline from 'e' is overlapping a few points on the first low vs the third decline origin [4520]. The decline so far could be an 'a through e' down unless a higher degree decline is occurring and it's at '3' out of '4' down.

Lows Likely To Complete At Targets Very Soon

EOD: Looks like more diamond construction. Potentially a new leg up is starting with the break up to print part of the new leg and a pullback to the previous existing trend line to base it.  Meanwhile, index turn signals are driving what appears to be a whipsaw but technically, that does not seem to qualify now. Once again, strange behavior in this structure looks very much contrived and quite deliberate. Large operatives may be unwinding a lot of inventory. Not a positive outlook.

original post-
All the whipsawing needs to go away so resuming up moves towards a retrace high at date zone 2/21 - 2/22/22 should help. Since there is little upside 'left' and several days to the possible retrace high, the market will likely be in a slow or range-bound overlapping movement until then.

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Whipsaw Low Target Date 2/11/22

ES 4460 and 4443 are lower fib extensions. The triangle has probably failed the retest and a low could print 2/11/22. A wavelength low target has come into focus for tomorrow. The diagonal 'a' through 'e' will most likely be completely retraced. The lows of the last 5 sessions may well be challenged. The low today bounced off the lower triangle projected trend line [4475 zone].

UPRO pulled back more in keeping with parity after it advanced too far more than 2.5:1 compared to SVXY yesterday. An index-based turn signal printed but no volatility turn signal - only a continuation ratio printed. The index-based turn signals are getting numerous in these whipsaws in both directions nixing the criteria normally used to create a baseline for reliable directional resolution short-term. 

The whipsaws are not creating topping conditions- those need to be much quieter so the 2/14/22 target looks to be some other event for now. A second more likely target is estimating to come in around 2/21/22 zone. That could be the retrace high somewhere closer to the top of the diamond.

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Triangle Breakout Retest Likely - Updated Projections

EOD: Retraced almost the whole of the diagonal 'a' through 'e' which is also a likely bounce zone. An index-based turn signal did print on SPXU so hard to say with this amount of whipsaw and no volatility turn signal yet so better to wait this out until date targets get closer. There could be a deeper test to come because of the index-based turn signal down. Not much of a reaction in the put-call ratio so far. ES 4464 and 4447 are lower fib extensions. The triangle has probably failed the retest and a low could print tomorrow.

3:44pm EST: Looks like the triangle center is being tested. That is also a typical spot for a bounce if that's what is occurring. Anything else should give us a turn signal at today's close or soon. 

original post-
A typical triangle breakout retest occurs as the break up hits 0.62+/- fib high of the triangle widest hi/lo vector (vector is light blue) and then tries to get back into the triangle. If it is any more than that, a turn signal most likely needs to print soon and it will fail the retest of the triangle but that happens very rarely. The retest could continue into tomorrow at the fib target shown [4503 zone]. In addition, the diagonal up 'a' through 'e' typically pulls back almost 76% before continuing up. So the two structures are sharing similarities in pullback amplitudes.

The date targets for next week to print a bigger event are still valid until then. The 2.5:1 UPRO/SVXY intra-day advancing ratio mentioned yesterday was a short term 'heads-up' that the market was stretched. There was also lots of cooing over the Dow advancing in the media. Today/tomorrow is likely a clearing out of those complacencies.

All this action is likely to cause immunity to cries of  'the sky is falling' so that the actual higher degree decline will also be bought creating more targets for the squeeze inventory. Unfortunate for many caught on that side.

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Struggling Towards A Retrace Level

EOD: Looking for a '3/c' target. More to run... note that since the huge drop in 2018 of volatility products, UPRO now accelerates above SVXY by 2.5:1 or more typically near tops. That is currently happening.

1:57pm EST: See updated ES chart below -[bottom chart]. Getting very tight towards the retrace targets.

A turn signal up in inverse volatility ['38', 37min] with supporting positive moves in index instruments printed yesterday at the close-

After the gap up today, not much more than a nominal move up in inverse volatility instruments. Index instruments are showing better upside at almost 3:1 over them. Still early but breadth has little more room to go up. Likely heading for a retrace level of very nominal size by early/mid next week while volatility instruments may hit their target lows setting up the decline to test the diamond apex low from 1/24/22 zone.

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