Waiting for Four x 5th Waves To Complete

EOD:  Not quite there. Another test of the throw-over (cyan) trend line. ES 3485.5 extension matches a 5th wave down. More up to follow soon.

A total of four x 5th waves at various degrees are now coming into range while breadth continues to decline. VXX may well have hit it's low price (daily chart on right). The Dow still has to fill it's gap and is heading in that direction.

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Everyone Getting Quite Bullish- Targets Say Maybe, Yes

Update: 11:23am EST.  ES 3480.75 was a small (iii) down from the overnight high. Most likely it will be bought [we've seen small 3rd waves down do this repeatedly]. That location was also a retest of the diagonal throw-over trend line top (cyan).

The small leg that was referred to yesterday had more to go to finish it's ('v') - when that hits, a better mid-level correction may begin. The market has more to go and will keep rising until targets are completed so we will see how much. VXX is getting interesting as breadth is steadily declining and close to printing a negative signal line on the weekly.

See a revised speculative chart at bottom.

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Into Throw-Over Territory- ES 3525.0 Next Target

EOD: Potentially- the leg up from 8/20 may have printed a top at 3498.50. A correction of that leg may now be likely. A 38% correction would take it to 3439.0 area prior to popping back up to new highs. (A 23% correction actually occurred a/h.)

Ultimately,  ES 3539.0 is a possible nominal measured target at a higher degree.

Original post-

Higher ES targets will continue to print as each dip is bought. VXX is accumulating relative strength so that a future low hit will potentially have sufficient positive divergence to catapult the market lower.

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Throw-Over To ES 3518 Zone About To Commence?

Update: 12:24pm EST:  ES 3449.00 zone could be top of a small 3rd wave (iii) that originated from a 2nd wave (ii) low on 8/21 at ES 3355 zone

Staying open to the possibility of the cyan trend line being a leading diagonal. A throw-over might give a clue to it being an ending diagonal which seems more likely given all markers that are showing presently.

Dow has a higher gap and SVXY has more upside to go.

Lower chart shows larger scale view.

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Action Continues In Up Leg Targeting ES 3448 - 3517 Zones

Dow and SVXY still have a gaps to fill but the instruments are now starting to move in that direction. VXX may be holding ground for now. It would not be untypical to see VXX hold it's low zone price as we get very close to final targets in the other instruments. Potentially one or two more hits there are likely. Pre-open vectors are indicating another potential low hit on VXX but could be adjacent to the target zone or a new low.

Also note that the daily RSI on VXX (low hits) took seven days between the first and second (higher low) hit [8/10 - 8/18] and we are now into five days from 8/18 so could be approaching the time symmetry window on VXX RSI. Fisher transform is indicating general upward price movement strength for several days since 8/10.

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Right hand inset shows VXX prices

Small Wave 5 Up Extended Target Projections

Update 1:43pm EST.  Above 3320 (iv) still in an up-leg.

Update 10:43am EST. The hourly chart at a higher degree is more likely to show clearer target extensions.

The wave 5 target projections from the previous post have been hit and a pullback from there was bought producing a potential 7 wave megaphone leg to new highs. (the rest of the megaphone is at a slightly higher degree than the chart shows).

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Current Leg Targeting ES 3400+ Zone

see latest post 8/24/20

.. and, of course, who would ever imagine that area would be a price magnet? Also note that rotation into Dow Industrials may have begun. It has a gap overhead. S&P could find it's top soon while the Dow fills it's gap.

See the lower chart for a medium-term projection. There is the possibility that we are in an expanding flat corrective having completed "a" down and trying to complete a "b" up now. If so, then a "c" down could follow which will take out the previous lows before heading to ES 3800 or so. The 300 x Pi elapsed days since 1/22/18 top gives us cause to consider we might be very close to another important leg timing position which might infer this scenario.

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Trying To Finalize The Move

ES 3393.50 is a measured extension on a potential small 5th wave in current leg. The leg is still active until better downside follow-through occurs. A nibble into the VXX low zone is still an option. 

There still is no negative value on the signal line on the weekly NYAD although it is getting closer at +34.6. Likely- any meaningful downward acceleration may not occur until NYAD weekly signal line starts printing values below zero. Negative divergence has been in place since June 15 on that line. It has declined 74% relative to the zero datum since June 15 prior to today's closing week ending print, wherever that ends up.

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Descending Fib Targets

EOD:

Above ES 3342.25 could be a wave 4 up in the descending structure or a re-test of the highs. Wave 3 down hit at 3344.75. VXX has hit target and moved from there with some follow-through. Dow still has a gap to fill so perhaps that will happen if investor's rotate to safety from the S&P as it meanders around a topping scenario.

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Small 5 of 5 up to Finish- VXX At Target Zone

Update 8/19/20 12:15pm EST.  There is resistance at 3395.75 but there is still more to go lower on VXX so not done yet.

VXX is within 1% of Target Price. ES Futures could go higher after VXX hits target or VXX could hit target after ES futures hits it's 5 of 5 up. Note the positive daily divergence now showing on VXX. Regardless of which hit's first, a market follow-through should confirm if the calculations are correct. The Dow still has an open gap and it would add confidence to the above projection description if it were to fill. Let's see what happens if VXX hits the 'Y' target.

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Getting Very Close- Final Projection Zone

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Wave 4 of 5 Completing- Targets In Focus

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Final Run-In Targets As Expected

Getting down to the nitty-gritty now. Most likely a deeper low in VXX no matter wherever ES futures falls at that point, should be off to the races as far as a market reversal. Expectation is for tomorrow or early next week to create a final print

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Topping Targets- So Far: On Point

EOD: Looks like resistance at the 3382.25 zone. Should not be a problem for a run to new highs in the next sessions.

Update 3:46pm EST.  Fifth waves can and often do take miscellaneous forms- zig-zags, megaphones, diagonals even a-b-c's so that looks appropriate for the current print. Still expecting VXX to make a new low somewhere.

Update- 1:26pm EST.  An alternate count puts C/3 at the high of 3377.75. Either way, more upside should be forthcoming.

Original post-

One or two more lower lows in VXX along with it's positive divergence should create a reaction in the market.

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Initial Bounce Target In VXX- More To Come

See latest post

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Targets- VXX Now Pegging In Low Territory

At these levels, we might expect a cash pullback and for VXX (volatility) to form some positive price divergences on it's RSI and/or Fisher transform prior to a final top printing.

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Throw-Over Happening Now: Targets

At least one pullback in cash needs to occur prior to the final throw-over as per 'normal' behavior unless typical behavior is not going to happen this time- (it's different?). Market will do exactly what it needs. A little more patience will be required.

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