(aka: is this completely out of the realm of possibility- are we really going here?)
See EOD retrace target update here.
Update 3/2/20 12:15am: ES 3035.0 zone could be a 'nested leg' resistance area which should be at a lower price than if it were a 'full leg' resistance target. Let's see how the price reacts. (3045.0 / 3098.0 are 'full leg' first / second resistance target zones)
Update 3/2/20 11:30am:
ES is prodding above the '1/a' label at 3006.0 and reaching for the 38.2% retrace line (3060.0 area)
Global Trading Signal: 'Agitation'- will most likely support the bounce at least for today and a continuation up is expected.
See the explanatory long-term descriptions lower down the page-
Quick note on Friday's closing action- the low held at (ES) 2852.0/2853.0 zone and hit 2996.0 briefly which surpassed label 4/d so watching to see if a retrace gains some traction and then focus on waiting for the next top flag as the expectation is high that more downside is yet to come.
Short-term picture:
Decided to republish the following chart under a new heading and add some notes because it probably explains a lot of what is happening and we think it is important to present it for review. The price action this week that has confused many commentators fits almost perfectly with the current leg (small B to C) that is underway on the SVXY megaphone described (lower right hand corner of chart immediately below). Larger and larger moves are printing as the structure expands and we are at a much bigger scale than in 2015 assuming the 'pattern box' also applies now. Small B-C has more to go and might be followed by small C-D up. The final 'exit' move should be the largest in price and time in this scenario. That move could be another 12-18 months away.
There also remains the question- will SVXY be destroyed in the large B-C leg down in a similar fashion to XIV in the deep "A-down" move in early 2018? SVXY has been modified to use a x -0.5 multiplier which is less than the previous x -1.0 but there is still the mathematical possibility that an extreme move (vix super-spike) could inflict a mortal wound. Let's hope not.
The silver lining could be that another huge leg up somewhere post-exit of box 2 occurs. Interestingly- this scenario could also fit quite closely with what the well-respected Elliott Wave statistician Glenn Neely is presently forecasting for the market (the 'view video' registration request on the link that opens is not ours, it's Glenn's). He has projected higher ultimate highs towards 3500 for the S&P in the current leg. This would fit the SVXY megaphone small D higher target. The prognosis is then for a larger correction ('exit' from box 2?- EW 4) followed by a very strong leg up** to a final grand supercycle top!- EW 5 (or whatever EW people label that wave)- that would be the recovery 'arrow' up after the exit from the box. Phew! Got all that? Not necessarily all bad news! A final huge up leg to arrive somewhere in the future after a correction. Let's stay sharp (in survival mode) until then.
** note that since early 2016, we are probably experiencing a similar type of thrust to the one that might be coming 3-4 years from now- only expected to be much larger! All based on the current prognosis working out of course so keeping that hope alive for now. (could be a 15-20 year up-move from the 'exit' move bottom when that arrives based on simple timing boxes). As always- there will be a report update when some change in outlook needs to be addressed so check back.
Check back for Signals:
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing
The original post can be seen here.
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