Saturday, January 16, 2021

Looking For Continuation Down To Target Zone

See potential retrace targets from 1/18/21 movement on 15 min chart at bottom.

Several vectors are pointing to lower market targets for next week. Expectation for VXX to climb higher before getting slapped back down to fill it's lower targets.. Weekly breadth chart at bottom will look better with a negative 'signal' print prior to a concluding intra-month temporary top on this leg from March 23 2020.

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Friday, January 15, 2021

3 Waves Down So Far Intra-day

EOD: Orange label leg down could be targeting below the current low (iii- optimal).

Update 3:20 pm EST: could measure 3 waves back up to  ES 3777.75.

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Vix Rising Support On Lower Trend Line Hit

Looks like the green leg has stalled or completed. Yellow leg is still in play, A rising lower trend line on VIX was hit at point 'A' as weakness was already showing so we will have to see how that plays out inside the yellow label leg. VVIX (vix volatility) is 19% above it's lower trend line at pre-open. Still looking at Feb 7 2021 window for a turning point- most likely a top.

REMEMBER: Daily moves have very little to do with any stimulus news event, up or down, other than a cycle confluence if it exists- Weakness was pointed out 3 trading sessions prior.

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Wednesday, January 13, 2021

ES Futures Stalled Inside Targets

Update 10:58am EST: Could be doing some very short-term 'gap-up' filling in volatility VIX and VVIX. (market heads up temporarily). Still looking at 2/7/21 for a Pi date high or low price zone. Odds favor a high so the market has to kill some time before then.

ES Futures may be showing weakness.

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Monday, January 11, 2021

ES 3858-3881 Targets In Focus

Also see previous post

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Saturday, January 9, 2021

Heading Into Next Upper Targets

Megaphone is still the preferred structure so it could print a 'top' anywhere near the targets (potential large white 'C' at the 'iii-c' label upper chart). We still do not see any larger degree decline whenever it occurs taking out the March 23 2020 low. A smaller degree top may be more likely as other parameters and vectors are not shouting 'topped'. It might attempt a pullback inside the daily megaphone a small amount before striking higher even taking out the projected targets shown.

As per usual VXX will give the most reliable signal when it declines into it's target area along with prices at new highs.

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Friday, January 8, 2021

Daily Wave Three Targets From 9/24/20 On Schedule

Update 1:13pm EST:  Breadth is heading more negative intraday.

Update 11:28am EST:
 Could be pausing at resistance price zone ES 3817.75- breadth is unimpressive intra-day.

The daily breadth MACD is in negative territory and has been slowly climbing since 12/23/20 so it could breach the zero datum and move back into positive territory. Sometimes this is a precursor to a short term pullback when the market hits a target price level. It isn't, however, usually more than that. VXX is still range bound and has not accelerated much in any direction since it hit it's low on 12/9/20. 'Limbo mode' would be a good descriptor for now regarding real volatility which could precursor a pending small top (possibly a daily wave 'iv-d' pullback later after 'iii-c' confirms?).

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 Review Here
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