Monday, February 24, 2020

2/24/20 More Big Moves Possible- Target Levels

The vectors are indicating a deep retrace is possible unless there is a substantial downward continuation from somewhere near here. This development would fit a large structure scenario. The moves may be at a higher degree. If the analytics seen thus far are pointing to this scenario, we will soon find out so for now best to stay open to large moves that fit well with target zones.

A retrace from 3214.25 will target the price level areas shown using the green arrow up. If a final move similar to the white arrows occurs, it will require a new projection calculation.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/24/20 Larger Structure Already Here

Update:
2/24/20 01:40pm ES The leg below the gap down has alignments matching fib extensions from the red arrow (so far). Statistically- the 3213.75 low is in close proximity to the 'c' leg of an a-b-c down that was eluded to earlier (-0.3%) so watching that for a possible retrace back up.
Chart update 03:00 EST.








Update:
2/24/20 11:00am EST ES May have formed/be forming an a-b-c (1-2-3?) down at the 3223.5 target zone. The lower white arrow x 2.6 extension ends at 3223.5 and might be more consistent with a 'c' leg down of an a-b-c at this juncture. The white (incomplete) horizontal line at the lower left of the chart (3/c proximity) is the overlap of the megaphone center line from a previous structural analysis so that might have some significance short-term.
Global Trading Signal: Moving towards 'Optimism'

Original Post:
2/24/20 07:25am EST Looks like the market did not want to wait and the completion scenario is jumping ahead to the 'larger structure' referred to in the previous post. An assessment of likely new short-term target zones is shown below. There is a possibility that the price pattern is fulfilling a degree size at the weekly level which would be a very significant call- that scenario was briefly looked at last week (not yet posted) but may now require a more in-depth look.

Global Trading Signal: Looks 'Neutral/Optimistic' - in the face of declining prices that could be indicating more downside to come as fear may not be showing up right away at least in a significant percent of short-term trading decisions. Let's see if that aspect changes today.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

Saturday, February 22, 2020

2/22/20 Downside Price Completion Track

UPDATE!: 2/24/20 06:00am EST Looks like the market did not want to wait and the completion scenario is jumping ahead to the 'larger structure' referred to in the original post below. An assessment of likely new short-term targets is underway. There is a possibility that the price pattern is fulfilling a degree size at the weekly level which would be a very significant call- that scenario was briefly looked at last week but may now require a more in-depth analysis.

Global Trading Signal: Looks 'Neutral/Optimistic' - in the face of declining prices that could be indicating more downside to come as fear may not be showing up right away. Let's see if that aspect changes today.


Original Post:
The top flag is a low value orange so not as strong as the previous top on 1/25/20. By itself, it may complete sooner rather than later- however there is evidence to suggest these flags are part of a larger structure that is unfolding due to their frequency and also that they are contained in a very strong down-leg on the weekly advance-decline (nyad) MACD plot (see bottom chart)- so expectations going forward are for a fairly significant development but there are not enough fully formed patterns yet to effectively estimate conditions for a likely major (multi-year) top.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing








































Friday, February 21, 2020

2/21/20 Top Flag And Related Price Plots

2/21/20 03:30pm EST. Global Trading Signal: 'Optimism/Neutral'

Note: With the frequency of orange tops in this recent (6-9 month) run-up in prices, the analytics are narrowing in on a possible large event coming up but perhaps not before some more upside in the market. It may be that the weekly advance-decline scenario is going to require a longer time-frame to complete and this will fit a much more substantial top being produced- if it goes in that direction. A better assessment will be facilitated after the current weekly print on the advance-decline (nyad) MACD today.

2/21/20 11:20am EST.  So far today there is follow-through to the downside and still showing some optimism in the global trading signal so not much fear in that indicator yet. The lower target zone at 3318.0 looks to still be a possibility sooner or later with the developments so far:

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

2/20/20 Top Just Flagged!

2/21/20 11:20am EST.  A deeper study may be pointing to something significant occurring. So far today there is follow-through to the downside and still showing some optimism in the global trading signal so not much fear in that indicator yet.

2/21/20 07:46am EST.
Waiting for the market to confirm the top flag or otherwise (see the price charts lower down).

Global Trading Signal: signal is reading 'Elevated Optimism' (buying the dip with high expectation for a big move up now)

Another look at the weekly advance-decline for some perspective-

The MACD signal at -165 ('A') is very close to the value on 12 Nov 2018 (cursor cross-hairs) and most other critical values ('B') are at a similar juncture except the price decline at 'C' may not quite fit so far.

2/20/20 04:58pm EST. (corrected at 06:25pm)
The ES chart may be telling- the retrace so far has stopped a whisker short of the red arrow low and there may be another target pending at 3318.0 zone.

2/20/20 03:40pm EST.
Potential 'retrace' targets S&P 500: If the first leg down has completed, it could take more than a day or two to complete a deep retrace.
2/20/20 02:40pm EST.
Global Trading Signal: likely moving towards 'Optimism' which would support buying the dip but may only produce a retrace top. We will see how it plays out.

2/20/20 01:14pm EST.
Retrace has begun. Typically there would be a deep retrace of the first leg down. Anything more may invalidate the flag.

2/20/20 02:11pm EST. S&P Chart: (lower target zone hit- first leg?)

2/20/20 12:27pm EST.
Global Trading Signal: is changing aspect from 'Max Optimism' earlier today. (Less optimism often revolves around a short-term bottom)

2/20/20: 11:40am EST. Top flagged- strength is orange level 1 (previous top on 1/25/20 was orange level 2). Red flag is strongest.
The signal triggered after the 3396.75 zone mentioned below from 2/19/20 showed resistance.
A deep retrace up might be expected after the first leg down hits a target (as yet unknown).

2/20/20 10:00am EST. Market Open Update:
Global Trading Signal: 'Elevated Optimism' - patterns may be signaling the first phase of a 'Max Optimism' condition. ('Max Optimism' is required to establish a top)

Original post-
2/19/20 09:50pm EST.  Potential price alignments..

Notes on chart figures:

3396.75 zone - is the value from the daily plot (lower chart). Looks like that zone is creating some temporary resistance overnight. The remaining values are from using the up arrow (cyan) fib extensions terminating with 3412.00 zone. Let's see if they have any real meaning by the end of this week. Referring back to the advance-decline effect mentioned earlier- possibility of down or flat day today and then an up move tomorrow or next week (or sooner?) into a final price somewhere higher (3412.00 or more?).

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing




2/19/20 Advancing Prices Developing

12:20pm EST. 
The advance-decline (nyad) MACD is heading up on the daily/weekly so far. Targets are developing with that move. The effect was discussed in the prior post.

Global Trading Signal: 'Neutral'

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

2/18/20 Top Possibly Setting Up

Update: 2/19/20 08:30am EST.
Revisiting the weekly advance-decline (nyad) MACD chart may be indicating that more up movement is required for the current weekly 'tail' to finish higher in comparison to the historical sample from 2016. This would support higher prices going forward on a weekly basis while waiting for a top detection signal to trigger. At open- moving in the direction of the 'more up' arrow.

ES has moved up into it's 4hr chart gap zone that begins at 3379.0

Global Trading Signal:  'Neutral' turned to 'Optimism' at open



Original Post-

This post is a heads-up on what has already been discussed.
If there is follow-through, the scenario looks like an imminent move down:

Global Trading Signal:  02:10pm EST. moving from 'Agitated' to 'Optimism'. 
(In the face of declining prices acute periods of optimism are required to maintain the decline. Watch for down-side follow-through after 'Optimism' has produced a retrace up of some degree)

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

Chart update: 07:42pm EST. If no downside follow-through then:
Chart update: 04:29pm EST. (retrace targets. or more?)
Chart update: 03:34pm EST.
Global Trading Signal:  continues printing 'Optimism'.