Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Volatility Hitting Targets

Pre-open: Still anticipating a larger decline to a low and then sling shot from there to new highs [from a pivot low.] It could consolidate in a range for a while as a significant unwind in breadth still needs to occur and that may take time to accomplish perhaps in a stealth-like fashion so as not to scare everyone.

VXX did hit an adjusted live target this morning at 39.01 and may be trying to bounce higher from there. Lower targets still wait to clear as shown on the chart posted.

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Monday, May 17, 2021

Sunday, May 16, 2021

Summation Rollover Getting Closer

Weekly summation index 50ma has provided good signals historically at these levels and the current development may be telling. It looks to be coinciding at price levels well into a potential high degree fifth wave (or 'C' or 'Z' or whatever label assignments are preferred). It may take another week of consolidating around the highs in ES before there are confirming signs it will continue to roll. After that, expect new all-time terminal highs to print.

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Thursday, May 13, 2021

Long, Drawn Out Pivot Targets- ES Cash

EOD:


So far, a good impression of a slightly bigger than 'normal' pivot in keeping with what we expect this leg to be in this highly changeable market- (a high degree wave 5 can move dramatically). Otherwise, a whipsaw will fly out the top quickly to start the real pivot higher up. Could still be a large retrace when you look at the cash gaps above and the volatility gaps (VXX). The 5-6% decline that was indicated in a prior post looks achievable. Then off to all-time highs to finish the high degree wave 5 leg. Breadth and price was very much overbought going into this potential pivot beginning April 1 2021. If a pivot structure is unfolding, those price levels likely will be tested/taken out (lowest cash gap in that time window at 6% decline).

Also note that VXX daily MACD is ready to test the (-)1.2 level [thicker, green line]. Once it settles above that value, all bets are off as wave 5 top is the next and final target together with a stronger VXX set up that very likely will be positioned to pounce on the VXX target low currently in the 30.00 zone about 18% below the current low. A long way to go before we get there.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Anticipated Decline On Target

Likely in a pivot but still an outside chance of a whipsaw that will make new highs to be followed by the real pivot. Breadth weekly NYAD MACD red signal line is well above the zero datum and is not usually the place where pivots commence so we shall see. It isn't a rule necessarily especially given the nature of this market.

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Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Pivot Targets - Decline + New Highs

EOD: The projected low at 4100 zone (wave 'v') could be it for the week's low or it could be retested/taken out a small amount. If a whipsaw takes over then new highs will be quickly following and we will wait for the pivot to begin somewhere higher up.

11:35 am EST:
 Some relief on the oversold breadth intraday so we will see if this is simply a whipsaw or if there will be a two week persistence producing an overall breadth and market decline [aka 'pivot']. Not a major decline according to the vectors so far which gives credence to a pivot structure unfolding. Could even extend to three weeks as there is a lot of ground to cover regarding an unwind of the market and the associated parameters. There are volatility gaps that likely require filling which should also drive a bounce/range bound moves. A first week ending decline around (-)1% to (-)1.5 % in the market could be expected inside a pivot structure.

11:10 am EST: If this decline recovers to new highs in a matter of days, then likely a whipsaw and the pivot is yet still to come. Breadth is looking at daily oversold numbers so could be a bounce looming.
So far behavior is supportive of a pivot action- not a major decline. Main take away is to achieve 1) weekly breadth decline for at least two consecutive weeks on the histo bars for NYAD MACD 2) a summation weekly rollover with a market decline and then 3) new highs [similar action to a wave iv / wave v topping]. Let's see if that continues. The proximity to a large degree wave 5 terminating looks promising.

Commentary: A note on abstract 'reasoning' and how it fits trading strategies: 'catch-phrase' ideas do not necessarily fit well with reality when it comes to trading. Trading is primarily about agreement between parties to buy and sell whatever is being peddled and the only barometer is what the data says. Nothing more. So ideas like 'sell in May', 'it's a bubble', 'wall of worry' etc. can be stated after some repeated observations but give no real clue as to what you should trade and when. The real work that has to be done involves investing time, analyzing data correctly and throwing out any distractions that do not involve demonstrable results over time. Hopefully, we can keep that goal in front of us as we navigate the machinery of trading behaviors.

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Monday, May 10, 2021

Pivot Potential On-Going Targets

EOD: 4172 low price zone looks like a wave 'iii' down so could continue up from there.

1% decline could prelude a 3% decline to a pivot low. Downside follow-through needed.Vectors have been aligning for a week now. Not 'the' top yet. New ath later on- [large degree wave 5]
 
See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
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