Sunday, October 24, 2021

Watching This Space

MACD indicators on some supporting criteria need to roll-over so that leaves the time alignment in question on that basis. Prices, particularly in volatility instruments may stay range-bound while main indexes print potential small degree tops. Either way, a respectable sized turn signal print may imply a decline move to May '21 prices described. A terminal move later on is the next likely event.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report


Friday, October 22, 2021

Volatility Instruments Declining With Breadth - Look Out!

EOD: VXX squeezed a few cents lower and breadth reversed intra-day and finished only slightly positive but broke lower on it's MACD below the daily 'red' signal parameter. The weekly breadth has been below the red signal parameter for 7 consecutive weeks and printed a total parameter sum of negative [-]251 today at the close. There is not much more room for VXX to move as it's historical 'x-over vector point' is now within only a few cents away from a reference point [statistically it sits right on top of it] that printed on 5/26/21 and is a key location for a potential medium size pullback into prices that printed in May '21 [SP-500 4196, VXX 35.90] . Let's see if a turn signal prints next week.

11:36am: Intra-day breadth reversal right on cue around 11:00am time slot [typical if it holds into the close]. Watching to see if it sets up a turn signal at the close. It is more likely to be a bump with a turn signal to materialize next week.

Original post-
Chart is ES futures. The concern is critical long-term vector alignments occurring as breadth MACD is declining together with volatility instruments. Historically this always creates a top in the market at various degrees. Given the advancing nature this could be a pending first leg down or just a pivot down-up. Odds are against a small top overall but it could begin that way. A turn signal [market down] is now required to print. Most likely next week. There is an early November +/- time frame topping target on the radar. 

Note: VXX and VIX histograms are diverging positively from their prices. Breadth MACD has printed lower high #2 so one or two more lower highs likely to come until volatility instruments find their final levels [matching highs (ex.SVXY) vs lows (ex. VXX, VIX)]

Comment: McClellan Financial Publications has a very timely report.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report


Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Current Dow Structure / Projection

Turn signal [down] watch effective. Summation index [daily] moving towards top of range- weekly may show that a bottom has printed [or maybe it is still printing] as it is beginning to roll up [but it is still in a low range]. The November time-frame is a key target zone at the moment as it is aligning with two 'half-wave' [VectorSpike indicator] increments. Volatility instruments look like they are nearing their low targets which could indicate a move up in volatility soon.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report


Friday, October 15, 2021

Dow Head-And-Shoulders Potential - Updated Analysis

10/17/21 Additional study- Effective volume of advancing stocks is diminishing dramatically.

Original post:
Dow prices printing now are the most likely fit for this structure out of all the market indexes. It was also the structure for the 2015 top though quite a bit smaller and only fit at the daily degree.  The current set up also fits inside a weekly closing degree pattern so a much larger potential applies. Preliminary timing suggests an early November decline [to a neckline?]. Most likely finishing up the 'head' structure currently. Prices could move up the sloping 'potential resistance' [see label] line or print clear through that a lot higher up. If a h/s pattern is invalid, that will be apparent probably by November.

Lower chart: Breadth pattern supports a similar structure to 2015 top zone but a much larger formation and across the potential h/s rather than preliminary to it as in 2015. Does not matter as similar results can be expected to price movements. Note the inverse SVXY pattern [3 arrows up] looks to fit the possible projection. After the third arrow up concludes in the future, a dramatic re-emergence of SVXY bullish pattern should begin. A new leg up in the market. That is a much longer term expectation from here.

Commentary: ..and of course some main stream analysts are claiming the start of a new bull leg up in the market citing economic and all kinds of factors. Right on time- these debates often gain momentum around top zones. They may be a few years premature. We will see. Actually- it is always a bull market- that is the easiest 'always correct' prediction, just don't get caught in high degree corrections. The market has never taken out the low from when it first began! [yet]. You can claim to be correct always predicting a bull market but that could be risky if you are advising derivative and leveraged instrument holders and they go belly-up in corrective moves [like XIV in 2018 etc].

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report


Thursday, October 14, 2021

Volatility Down - Indexes Printing Potential Right Shoulder

EOD: Volatility signal [lower] suggests more upside to come in the market. SP-500 is approaching the first thin blue neckline around 4440 - 4450 but that does not look like a realistic neckline. Better candidates are lower down if this is a head-and-shoulders formation.

1:00pm EST:
 Dow Industrials has the best form currently for a daily closings price head-and-shoulder structure. It should not matter which index fits more or less as in the 2015 top, the Dow Industrials had the better form at that time also. Symmetry could use a little more time- perhaps up until early November 2021 for the pattern to look better.

Original post-
The possible H/S symmetry needs more index right shoulder formation [brown line projection] and so far, that appears to be the intent as the price action seems constrained to that particular zone for now. Breadth is printing overbought numbers and [market] upside turn signals have been less than impressive.


Chart is from 10/13/21-

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report



Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Structure Has 67% Chance Historically- Supporting Criteria Is Printing

EOD: A small turn signal down in volatility implies that the market will move up from here which then complies with the summation index which has been moving up so it may simply confirm a continuation to a retrace high somewhere above in the markets. Volatility derivatives are already at extremes so this does not indicate a directional change in volatility futures just more in the same direction until a low in volatility is printed as the summation index ascends and potentially rolls over inside the right shoulder.

1:41pm EST:
 A turn signal down in volatility [market up] is trying to print intra-day so the closing numbers will be important. Note these small turn signals in volatility are happening very rapidly but the summation index is printing a move up and has been for a while which implies it is looking for a top. When it does roll over the turn signals become valid as far as support from that indicator. That likely will occur when a retrace up is completing. Anything other than that will become apparent.

Original post-
After careful analysis, there appears to be a Head-And-Shoulders formation that has merit given the current market set up. These formations are typically unreliable at only 67% chance of completing however, it needs to be considered as demonstrated in the chart for the SP-500. There are potentially three necklines with the smallest likely near or having completed. If the retrace currently shown in brown materializes and does not take out the small neckline [thin blue line] it could be headed for lower targets. Another turn signal up in volatility [market decline] will be needed if that is to happen somewhere in the retrace. Volatility currently appears to be trying to find a bottom which would be expected at this juncture inside a possible right shoulder pattern.

Charts are daily on the left and weekly on the right hand side. Lower chart demonstrates the potential across multiple instruments in the general market. This set up could cause quite a stir but may not be a terminal top yet. Negativity in the blog sphere does not support a terminal top just yet though there was exuberance in the preceding weeks around the potential 'head' so watching closely for signals and developing patterns. SP-500 pivot drops between 9 to 12% have happened since 2000 at major topping zones prior to the actual terminal tops in a few high degree price tops so the proposed move would not be out of place as described.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report




Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Short Term Bias Is A Retrace Up

10:21am EST: Sentiment turns a little sour today, so up the market goes: still in whipsaw territory but leaning towards a mini-top on a retrace up to potentially create a wave down from there. SP-500 is likely closing a lower gap first.

Original post-
Overnight the triangle center was tested in ES and at pre-open ES is back at the 4355 zone which is about where cash closed yesterday. However- there was a small turn signal up in volatility at the close which puts the bias back into the short-term topping mode. There could have been a wave [i] down to the center of the triangle in ES and now a retrace back up may be underway. This also fits with a projection earlier that explored the potential for a retest of the lows before a larger turn signal down in volatility transpires [market goes up later]. A triangle break up failure looks more likely now as ES pierced into the triangle instead of bouncing immediately at the trend line even though cash may well do that.

Daily Summation Index is continuing upwards but below it's typical highs and may well be seeking the top of a small degree retrace up in the market [or something higher]. That is where the bias comes in currently. Likely the market will settle into a direction soon at least in the short-term. It was mentioned yesterday that many blogger analysts were quickly getting more optimistic but without the presentation of multiple criteria using historically proven indicators of more than a couple of formulations in support of it. A terminal high may well be at higher market prices overall yet to come but the situation is far from certain currently. In this whipsaw environment, multiple criteria supported turn signals will likely be key.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Chart from Thurs 10/7/21: