3/11/20 Any Clues What's Happening Beyond Price Action?

3/11/20 10:35am EST. Update: Timing should provide a break up or down soon. The longer prices remain in a tight range (even a big one) with a positive divergence building and no breakdown, the more reliable the move, if it occurs, in the divergence direction. A breakdown could be equally as significant because of the overall nature of the market currently (deeply red) but may equate to a larger positive divergence going forward after lows are hit. Anything can and will probably happen in the current environment

Expectation should not preclude movement especially when all signs point South so any 'bounce' will likely appear and feel like a relief but most likely will not go as planned compared to recent history. Only when the print hits the lower end of the megaphone and looks to create a daily divergence up are the conditions going to be more promising. The market right now can rip the face of early longs. Also mis-timed shorts can be a concern. However-

Volatility looks like it is resolving in a triangle which could break either way. There is geometry indicating a break lower in volatility could occur more easily (market should go up). That would fit with the positive divergence that's building.

Global Trading Signal: (GTS) Oddly, the signal has not shown any regular long periods of extremes of 'Agitation' compared to how the market prices have performed recently. There may be an explanation for that in some of the background data that is being looked at. If a result of the study looks valid- there will be a connected report forthcoming. Currently it looks to be printing a longer than usual 'Extreme Agitation' status so maybe the market is getting closer to a bottom/turn.

Members here are definitely not prone to exaggeration, bragging or thoughtless flights of fancy so please consider that the following study wasn't published easily and not until after a year or two of hard slog, looking and aligning various structures and studying the connectivity between them for a clue. It sounds like it's promoting a 'snake oil' solution with a kind of sales pitch but nothing is being sold. We would rather a bull market just keep going without interruption but better to know what might be happening in the 'deep market' - apologies for using that particular term. Could it be incorrect? Of course- no one is infallible. The market itself can never 'be' wrong. It can go too far one way or the other but that is only a reflection of group participation. There is no market master-controller sitting behind a curtain somewhere doing anyone's bidding. There are powerful forces that can influence moves but overall the group dynamic is a huge Titanic of finances. Sorry about that reference too.

For the next several years- before, during and after every 'big news' item is attributed as a cause of market moves, this chart may proffer a more aligned reason -
Forget everything else (sort of) the most important chart for an explanation of current and future market direction could be-   Here

See Important Long-Term VIX Study

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)

..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , 3/6/20-void, 3/9/20

Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

Chart print: 3:30pmEST. One more try- 3:41pm EST. -Well ok then! note-it took 6hrs of solid 'Extreme Agitation' to try and bust this move. Are we done? We will see. Volatility is still within a mini-triangle but has had three top-touches on the trend line- could still break any direction after this move but more likely lower after three top touches and extreme readings on the GTS. Average true range on 4hr chart finally broke below 50 -it hadn't been there for 4 days through today so that might be encouraging.