Thursday, March 5, 2020

3/5/20 If A Bull Flag Prints -It Will Heave It Right Up To The Edge

Update #2 to original post:
3/6/20 Looks like Global Trading Signal is printing 'Extreme Agitation'  which will likely result in a second higher 'bounce/bottom' - if completes, that might do it for the consolidation.

Update #1 to original post:
EOD: so far, so good. VXX printed close to where it's price 'credit' (VIX futures) predicted. It may be done which will leave the market free to move up and out through the flag that appeared to print today. Also- VXX has printed 3 daily higher highs for 3 higher lows on the S&P which is a negative divergence. 

One caveat though- if the break out of the triangle moves up and does not go very far- watch out for a reversal and continuation down. In this market the upside is limited and anything can happen to take out the long trades.

Original post-
If the leg down to ES 2853.25 was the end of a large-degree move there might need to be a very deep retest then off to test the highs. Alternative is ES continues going down from near here. These two seem to be the least likely scenarios according to several analytics. It is entirely possible that ES is currently printing a consolidation before pressing on to the full retrace level. If that happens, there will be quite a view from up there and probably a warning notice too! A top flag watch will initiate at those elevations.

The market is definitely in wild terrain so hold on tight to the handrail. As always- watch for signals. Timing and patience are ever more crucial. Launch the lifeboat too soon and the wave momentum may swamp it- too late and the drop will wreck it. Somewhat calmer waters should show up closer to the crest of this move. The standard deviation is through the stratosphere right now. The brave will surf it but the rest of us like to sleep nights.

The crucial foothold is at the recent low of 2853.25 - "bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20)"

Additionally- VXX may be building a double-negative divergence on the 4 hour chart while it finishes printing it's high - this would support the continued move upwards of the market if it completes within it's current range.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

Chart printed 08:36am EST.

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