After a closer look, the Bollinger Bands are indicating the strong likelihood that the chart is further along and that the correction highlighted in Sept 1998 is 'wave pattern aligned' with the correction that already bottomed in March 2020. Of course, the degree is much larger but the alignment holds merit. This would put the progress closer to a historical wave pattern alignment in mid 1999 and closer to a leg high (top). The more realistic 50ma take-off dates are in 1995 (wave A) and 2018 (wave C)- 2.75 years and 2.25 years (approx) respectively between 50 ma take-off and a correction low clearly visible on a weekly chart. Keeping in mind volatility and degree inflation- it looks like a similar candidate fit. See 2nd chart. Bear in mind, if the compliment is correct at a mid-1999 alignment, then VIX could continue on a weekly penetration move that persists more or less for a few weeks in total. That did occur in mid-1999.
original post-
The study here was done to try and estimate the general market progression. The main take away using VIX is regarding the 50 and 200 moving average patterns as they are often very successful at identifying a set up. As can be seen using waves 'A' and "C' , there are striking similarities in action comparing 1996 to today. A VIX print just penetrated the 200 ma and is unusual as far as what that may mean in it's general isolation. Since we have been expecting a correction at some degree and disregarding any subjective bias, this evidence certainly looks compelling.
It is not anticipated that this will produce anything more than a relatively minor corrective but at these levels of degree, it may look impressive.
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