Possible Fade In The Wall & Summation Index Has Potential

EOD: Closed almost at ES 4168 and certainly within margin of error. Also note that VIX recently completed 3 x pre-open 'mini-crushes' between 4/9 and today (4/15)- usually a sign that a juncture may be at hand, in this case, perhaps a small one but could be a pointer.

Update: 10:10am EST: ES 4168 has fib extension targets that coincide a) from 'DD' (wave ii low projection) and b) lower degree projection from 4/6 (small 'iv'). That zone looks like a reasonable candidate for a reaction- possibly a summation pivot point to commence. Still no top without the summation weekly 50 ma rolling over.

Also from post on 4/12: "On a monthly closing basis, there is a gap on the VIX at 15.47 that is very likely an attractant. Most likely- either a daily/weekly/monthly close needs to happen below VIX 15.47. At least that may give us another target zone we can hang a hat on for now.."

original post:

Upper Chart: Much talk for many years regarding climbing the 'Wall of Worry' and indeed that appears to be true looking at the CPC (put/call) data (weekly moving average plots). The optimism of year 2000 has not been revisited since then. Technically, it could be observed that this condition still exists and a few are outright continuing to tout a chronic 'melt-up' scenario because all are worried. Well, we like to see supporting data- that's all we've really got folks when it comes down to it. So, while we are still more or less close to the 'Wall of Worry' range since 2009, you can see a break down in 2017 commence at fibonacci '+8' years that also is a fibonacci '+13' years from the 50ma retest of the 200ma around 2005-2006. The take-away is that perhaps the wall may now be exposed to larger market corrections even if temporary. Sure looks like a possibility.

Lower Chart: Looks like the overall market is waiting on the DOW among others - they need to hit their highs. If the summation index 50ma peaks on the weekly (approx. two weeks until the peak if current status estimate is accurate)- a top could print up to 3 weeks after that. Time frame is from historical samples +/-. This behavior has been observed all the way back to 2000 so the historical reference has a good track record. Technical: note that the current MACD expectation is unclear regarding whether it rolls over or turns up in a prolonged move as occurred at the top in early 2018 in which case a good deal more time will be added to the whole process.

See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
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