Lower Chart: 10:23am EST: UVXY target @ 4.27 so far looks like a clean hit. A week-ending breadth decline of some value is required before any more analysis can be formulated. A 'preliminary pivot' would imply a price advance slow down / slight reversal that precludes a rollover peak printing on the summation index. The first attempt on the NASDAQ some weeks ago would be similar to a preliminary pivot though that particular decline looks more substantial in nature but it conveys the idea.
Upper Chart: A reader pointed out that the NASDAQ summation index had rolled over. The study below demonstrates how that fits with the pivot criteria we employ. Is a pivot required to create a top? The main elements do need to be present even if the pivot action is not exact every time. As can be seen in the NASDAQ chart below- some weeks prior, a deep target zone was hit [a] and there was a negative breath component that fit in the advance-decline MACD [c], but a rollover [b] did not materialize.
Regarding current weekly action: There is a rollover attempt that looks promising and it is in the deep target zone. However on this occasion, the breadth component looks insufficient. Again, there is a missing element so either a stall or a longer delay is about to occur. Even if a 'double-top' is pending, a deeper breadth histogram component will most likely still be required. In that event, the pivot structure will possibly be flat rather than looking like a check mark [somewhat like the top in late 2018].
Lower Chart: Current ES projection.
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