Wall of Worry - What Does The Data Say?

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Top Chart:
Put/call weekly moving averages: Lots of catch-phrases are often bandied around in the market analytical sphere. Sometimes they do sum things up due to repeated historical observation tied to a certain logic that also makes sense. However, it is more prudent to abandon these worn out labels and stick to reading data for better insight. For example- for many years the 'wall of worry' has and continues to be promoted as the reason for the market's climb. That is less than an objective observation even if it appears accurate in it's description of market behavior. What does it actually mean?

A simple and time-tested method of finding out more accurately is to look at the money! Where is it going and to what degree? How much worry is there in actuality? Can we measure it? Fortunately one of the reporting tools that is made available tells us where the money is going in regards to 'worry' when puts or calls are purchased one more than the other. Bottom line- money usually 'talks'. Something is assuredly happening with the 'wall' as is evident in the weekly put/call moving averages shown below.

Bottom chart:
Summation index: Cutting through the details- looks very much like a rollover on the weekly 50ma may be about to print in the coming weeks. Could be in a second system with a third yet to unfold. The 'Pi time' overlay is referencing a period of 8.6 yrs / 2. This time increment (8.6 yrs) has been well studied and used as a predictor of turning points. It is based on a number of calendar days divided by the Pi constant (3.1416) when it produces a whole round number (1000). We refer to it occasionally for reference only. It is not a primary criteria within our system but a potential supporting parameter. Note the 50ma horizontal channel that so far may contain an A-B-C pattern with the 'C' potentially about to print.

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