Thursday, April 8, 2021

These 4 And 9 Year Charts Are Painting A Picture Worth More Than Any Analysis

11:19am: Breadth remains unimpressive so far today but that can reverse on a dime as buyers are still jumping in anywhere at anytime at least until the spigot starts turning to the 'closed' setting. At this point, closings are short-term and temporary but a reality check can bite at these levels. Buyers who came in early in the leg should be ok for a few more weeks but late-comers may be tested.

Time to step back and recap. Weekly breadth is very obviously getting larger in MACD histogram bars (top chart) and a repeating overall height pattern has emerged. Can it change? Of course it can but we don't see an overwhelming argument for it just yet. Chart two is referring to leveraged inverse volatility derivatives. Weekly VIX has inflated but has not yet reached heights seen in 2009 so it could be argued that more upside in actual volatility is available based on known historical ranges for it.

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