Long term volatility 'turn ratio' has flagged a bottom in volatility & ES futures levels are likely flashing a 'heads up' moment. The previous 'turn ratio' that flagged a bottom at this degree was a few weeks prior to the 2020 top in the market- this is not a signal that shows up with any frequency. The date of the current signal is Fri. 7/9/21. A daily turn ratio and associated parameter criteria needs to trip next. The potential for some dramatic price corrective moves exists inside the set up that is printing to date.
Additionally- on trading week ending Fri. 3/20/20 volatility turn ration flagged a top. Typically the volatility acceleration on a strong down move lags the actual bottom in volatility derivatives due to the speed of daily moves.
See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
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I agree on the commentary. I believe, this time it will be climate change. Number of events of floods, typhoon, hurricane have increased dramatically and affecting all part of the world simultaneously. So far, I haven't seen financial media discussing or weighing climate change on economical impact. Maybe a catastrophic climate event to conincide with a terminal top.
ReplyDeleteVarun- Thank you for your response. We try to remain open-minded regarding events but there are unmistakable patterns that do occur. Hopefully, they remain within human 'control' as far as possible. It is not possible to know beforehand when something serious is about to transpire. The financial markets are anything if not persistent in their forward progress as is human nature generally speaking and the markets reflect that thankfully. Stuart.
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