Overnight 7/8/2021: High so far is ES 4352.25. ES 4353.25 was a target from 6/1/2021 for a wave 'v' high so let's see if that begins a pivot process. [right hand side square box on chart below]
Intra-day update: watching now for this to develop:
Original post:
As readers of this blog will be aware, VectorSpike is not shy when it comes to plugging in evidence-based scenarios. Going with the VIX weekly chart pattern from 2000, an estimated similar stream of VIX aligned waves may have brought us to the current 'e' location. [yellow square border, next chart, bottom right]. This is of course a very highly speculative projection and the unfolding pattern going forward could potentially vary or be much more complex given the advanced nature of the market since the wave 1 up in the DOW Industrials from 1929. The Dow has now penetrated the significant 86 yr cycle period as can be seen from the confirmed alignment dates at the bottom of next chart. SVXY is shown on the inset at the bottom as some time alignments are very significant with regard to volatility derivative price moves as well as to the market price moves. Note the first dramatic drop in SVXY occurred almost exactly on 1929.75 + 86 yrs = 2015.75!. Subsequent moves have aligned with *2.15 yr increments since then. Pure chance? Seems unlikely with this much evidence now in the rear view mirror. *[(86 /10) / 4 = 2.15]
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UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
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Breath indicators are going down, followed by yields and oil tumbling too. Signal coming deflation and maybe double dip recession. For stocks, are you looking for 2020 style crash or per current post, a large pivot and dragging inevitable crash to 2022?
ReplyDeleteVarun: Thank you for your comments. It would be easy to say a 2020 style decline is going to happen except, it may be of a sufficient size overall that it likely will exceed the 2020 decline as far as a volatility spike (in VXX) and it may require two or more 'new lows/partial retrace' legs to reach a final bottom target. It is difficult to know exactly how the pattern will play out. One thing does look certain- it will be like nothing seen recently. It may even require another new leg up to additional all time highs and it may well take years for the pattern to complete. We will be calling the legs as best we see them as they occur. A Pivot is expected to happen next prior to the actual top. The pivot could be dramatic in keeping with the overall expectation for a major decline. Stuart
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