Thursday, July 8, 2021

Volatility Derivatives Setting Up

10:58am EST:  Breadth is looking oversold but may continue to print a weekly negative histo bar by tomorrow which, if it holds, will print a fourth negative bar on the NYAD MACD. A consecutive four negative weekly histo bars demonstrates downward pressure increasing that will eventually break new highs and produce a market decline. Another one or two will likely do it as far as a pivot decline to commence. A terminal top is highly likely subsequent to a pivot move especially if the NYAD red signal line breaks below zero on the weekly chart. Could well be a relatively slow grind to ES 4391.50 target zone.

Comment: more than a few 'bullish' comments beginning to take hold in the blogs. Optimism typically increases into tops not necessarily supported by good evidence so let's see how that works out.

Original post:
VXX bounced from the intermediate target zone of 28.08 [28.07 actual low]. This action is likely preliminary to the pivot high about to arrive when VXX takes out it's recent lows. Could be more than a few whipsaws in this market first.

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