EOD: ES poked above and closed below 4417 zone and VXX hit a few cents below 29.32 target zone but closed above that price. Overall, the volatility 'derivatives stress' ratio showed a reading supporting the market move up so more could be on tap tomorrow or a small pullback could ensue.
10:52am EST: VXX 29.35 price zone is hitting where 29.32 +/- was a fib ext. tgt. so we will have to see if that has any significance going into the close today. While not being the typical extension price of 28.09 shown, it could produce a minor resistance bounce while on it's way to the lower target zone.
ES 4417 zone was preliminary projected during March 2021 and here we are. At best it is most likely a first target of at least two long-term projections. Currently the vectors are aligning with target zones projected from 3/23/20 so some action is expected going forward.
Comment: Headlines and Fed speak etc. will mislead many looking at the market. The only thing that matters regarding direction is what the market tells us it is doing at specific degrees & time frames often requiring historically demonstrable evidence of the kind attempted here in studies and analyses. That's all we got...
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Can you elaborate a little, current ES top can be a pivot top, followed by small decline and terminal top? OR forming a terminal top can take few months?
ReplyDeleteAnother question I had was, whenever terminal top occurs do you have vector projections for decline with respect to time and price?
Varun, Thank you for your question. A top even at this price level in ES [4417 zone] has yet to confirm. Quite likely, a pivot [mostly a modest top] will ensue soon. A terminal top should come later. Probably weeks not months but the market will decide. There will be updates as we see it unfolding. A terminal top looks like it may start out dramatically and then retrace somewhat before completing. Not expecting it to be over quickly but these projections can be difficult over longer time frames. We go with local signals as well as larger degree expectations to better gauge the movements. In all cases. the timing is likely to be larger because of the relative size of the advanced nature of the vectors from the 1929 top. Stuart.
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