Update: 11:07am EST: ES 4232.50 +/- is a measured extension wave [iii] down. Looks likely bouncing at ES 4231.25 - close enough to complete a wave [iii] down. Let's see how it closes the day.
Open update: the whole leg from 7/8/2020 in ES has been taken out. A slightly lower extension target will most likely form a bounce support zone. Daily breadth is way over-sold. Check back later for an extension calculation analysis. Thursday's expected pattern [7/15/20] looks likely to be playing out..[from the red dot].. The 'mkt top' comment is only a low degree top but likely will include some drama. For example- the low from 5/12/2021 will likely be targeted on the next top signal. [VXX below takes out 48.00]
Original post-
The market blog world is getting excited over the last pull back... and here we go again reading tea leaves right on cue.. pick any one from a few- "Delta variant..blah..blah" [of course it's the pandemic rising once again]. Sorry, it gets so old seeing knee-jerk reactions that are absolutely meaningless in terms of sensible analysis and trading prognoses. The pandemic was with us from 3/23/2020 and look at the market rise from there. That is conveniently dismissed or somehow 'reasoned away' with another one from the list- a constant reminder of how difficult proper market analysis can be without a data-based grounding that repeatedly works over time
Upper chart [first one below] describes a modest retrace that was proposed could occur prior to a new up leg taking off. ES 4391.50 zone was shown as a target area in a prior post and a pull back occurred just a few cents from that number.
A new leg up [when it occurs] will likely target the 'old' extensions already in place. [ES 4417 already identified + new highs likely short-term]. This phenomena has occurred frequently as readers will have noted. Not until weekly breadth [NYAD MACD] prints negative signal values [9-period ema] at the end of completed weeks [Fri. - Tues. nominally] can a meaningful correction commence.
If we have missed a signal in the near-term pattern sequence, that will become apparent fairly soon and we will complete a new analysis. It is not expected to vary greatly at the higher degree expectation however.
Lower chart [at very bottom] is a longer-term analysis based on a very detailed look at the progression of volatility vectors from 1995 to today. The development criteria is not shown as it is quite involved and is somewhat experimental but is based on historical observations. We thought to roll it out anyway at least as a possibility. Perhaps we are being reckless again. We shall see eventually. Yes- those are nominally 1,500 - 2,000 point moves overall in the SP-500 - a maximum -45% +/- corrective. Note: we just had an approximate -34% corrective move down to 3/23/2020 and this market is likely just getting started.
It was noted in prior posts that the breadth pattern [NYAD MACD] was 'floating' with little in the way of a stable transition print and the result would be short-term instability that would scare more than a few: 7/9/2021 post. Looks like that may be about to play out.
See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
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