On the current leg down, a small retrace / pause has begun but the overall pressure is down so volatility derivatives likely will move only slightly lower than where they closed while SP-500 may move over a few days, then resume the track down. VIX moved a lot higher just prior to the close before pulling back slightly so that telegraphs more downside pending.
Readers of this blog will note all of the patterns posted on in several areas: breadth, half-span time targets, turn signals, ARMS index 200ma moves, ADLINENYA index and SUMMATION index [shown below]. All of these are currently supporting a nearing-top scenario- [the VIX overlay is spiking a large amount indicating more downside after a small pause]. Dates 12/7 through 12/9 are printing for highs or movements to resume. The 50ma may need to move up higher to print a top but it isn't a requirement.
The VIX overlay shows an accelerating spike that completes during August 2007 and has similar pattern characteristics to the current close on 12/3/21, however, the current move in VIX is much further on down the 50/200 ma's than the comparable one in late July 2007. This leaves the option for a pivot to morph quite quickly into something larger. A turn signal up in the market [down in volatility] at these levels would be an important signal that prices need to go higher.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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