12/2/21 Pre-open update: The turn signal that printed on 11/22/21 [the high in SP-500] is looking like the valid top as far as the current decline that is underway. It is not looking like a terminal top but it could be the anticipated decline heading towards May '21 prices. A pullback might be expected soon and the decline to continue from there. No other turn signals are to be anticipated except the one to confirm the decline has concluded.
Evening Update: 12/9/21+/- time window is next up after the 12/3/21 target on Friday. This may fit better as the market may need more space between all the excitement and a quieter high even if it's a lower one.
EOD: Tentative closing numbers are not confirming a turn signal in either direction and breadth collapsed again after a rousing start. A double-check did indicate a decline possibility for today on a local half-span increment target so that leaves Fri 12/3/21 still on the agenda for an interim high to print [one of two- with the second next week?]. Hopefully that one will print after all the recent ruckus has quieted down and everyone feels comfortable again. UPRO did descend into the close which needed to happen even though SVXY also descended. A turn up in the market is now a more likely short-term possibility. A turn signal failure at these levels is rare so remaining watchful for that to print in the coming sessions in either direction.
Daily summation index has declined even more with the weekly looking ominous. ARMS index daily 200ma is threatening to take out it's lows not seen since Sept '21 decline. Once that occurs a likely declining escalation will be on tap given all the remaining criteria positions.
3:46pm EST: Turn signal up in volatility may print tonight. If it does, market decline most likely to continue and potentially accelerate from here. Need to wait for closing numbers to confirm. Price volatility is all over the map. Everyone is jumping at shadows. Need a stable analysis done in the quiet of the after-market evening. Media is freaking out over everything. Not conducive to real tops. UPRO is finally descending which is what needed to happen to stabilize the movement so a clear decision can come more into focus.
2:46pm EST: Breadth is collapsing again.
12:58pm EST: Oddly enough, conditions may be leaning favorably towards a turn signal up in the market. This would not be a surprise as a temporary capitulation may have created more buyers than sellers. However, UPRO still does not look favorable as far as a capitulation so downside continuation does still holds the odds in the coming days. Fri 12/3/21 may print a resulting high from this move up. This could be one of two where the next one shows up next week.
Original post-
Target date 11/22/21 [2 x half-span] still holding SP-500 high. Market declining from there. Noticing some comments that equate the correction to a 'Santa-Rally' prelude. Contrarian thinking will be at odds with that idea. The timeline will decide. If 'crash-talk' creeps in then contrarian thinking will likely support highs into next week. The timeline has room for both scenarios. A timely turn signal will be the final guide unless one does not materialize. A non-appearance of a turn signal rarely happens on medium degree declines...12:40pm EST: NYAD spike trying to fade.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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