2:40 pm EST: If there is a pullback near here, looks like more downside is setting up.
1:12pm EST: The structure is beginning to fit more with a pivot rather than anything deeper immediate-term. Pivots generally accelerate breadth in a negative weekly move and that has occurred. If week ending breadth [weekly NYAD] 50ma 'tail-down' prints anywhere near where it is right now then the terminal top zone has most definitely come into focus. Pivots pre-empt a move to new highs and likely a terminal top [an end-of-year rally, no less- 'Santa?' !!]. Keeping that on reserve for now. Only timeline developments and signals will make that decision. Perhaps taking it into late '21 / early '22. The volatility full span time-line and vector target is also fitting that scenario.
11:02pm EST: SVXY has indeed printed a lower low which is entirely acceptable to fulfill expectations. Volatility and/or indexes often lead/lag each other.
Original post:
ES has lower options and UPRO may need to catch up at a lower price = lower favored [UPRO has a relationship with SVXY]. The structure overall has likely not concluded medium term. A retrace next week should not be accompanied by a turn signal [market-up] if the structure going forward is as anticipated according to the timeline now in place. A 50% retrace or thereabouts should initiate more downside moves if the structure remains valid.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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Friday, December 3, 2021
Lower Options Favored
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