See latest post 2/8/21
Update: A Final Thought: (bottom charts)..there could be an outside chance of a d4 wave pullback in both ES and SVXY followed by an e5 longer up move in SVXY that then confirms the leg up with a rise in inverse volatility. Even with this, a completed leg up from Feb 1 looks likely.
(upper chart): We have re-published the SP-500 monthly as an overview.
original post:
Looks like a statistical hit close or at the long-term ES target from several posts ago. SP-500 may need a cash closing high but it is not required. The ES target was anticipated to be close to a top on this leg but breadth and other vectors suggest more upside. HOWEVER, lack of confirmation in VIX derivative movements (VXX and SVXY) are a cause for concern especially given the price location long-term. The potential for one or more pullbacks prior to this leg finally topping is possible.
Please note that on a one - two week increment, the pre-top move in 2018- 50 and 200 NYAD ma's are parallel both pointing up (3rd chart). The divergence comment relates to the monthly print in the current situation which is leaning bullish looking at the 50ma. This is why we are considering that two pre-top situations may be ensuing, (or one large pre-top) in other words- two consecutive peaks/pullbacks may be required until the 50 ma shows a weekly declining trend (with the exception of the overall level being much lower on the 50ma today).
The 200ma level is just about identical today with 2018 pre-top- by itself, probably not significant, but given everything else, could be significant.. caution is warranted as we may still be in the 'ups and downs' of a megaphone. SP-500 is printing what could be it's third wave up since 2021 began (weekly, see 3rd chart) and may not be done yet. A pullback to it's centerline or lower could show up. There is still a potential 'C' target on SVXY lower- see this post (square border labels: A-B-C down: bottom chart on the highlighted post).
Please be aware: correct detailed analysis requires the necessary amount of 'work'. Statements like "market shrugs off.. (event)" and "market rises on.. (event)" invariably do not demonstrate correct analysis. They may announce confluence or coincidence within other cycles that are in phase or close to in-phase with the market. Cycles control and influence everything which is a difficult concept until you see it happening at different degrees over time. If the calculation is correct on the 'Pi constant' (cycle) date, then a window has just hit: 2/6/21 (2/5/ - 2/7/ cash tradable dates). This may be an important structural marker. That would be another important demonstration of this particular type of time-cycle. We have posted on these previously mostly with greater success, sometimes less. We shall see.
Top chart shows comparison with expectation developed around 1/16/21 and current weekly print. The MACD is the NYAD print vs. weekly SP-500.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
No comments:
Post a Comment