Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Wave 'V' of 'A' Up Looks Complete

Update 10/7/20 10:00am: Retrace up targets at 3395.75, 3396.5, 3399, 3404.75, 3409. 

After hours: A fast i-ii-iii down has printed which could be setting up for the wave 'B' down complement to the 'A' up shown in the chart. Overnight it has already retraced approximately 48% up off it's low. Typical would be a large bounce soon after it bottoms ('C' wave up to create the leg completion) not necessarily to a new all-time high but could challenge the highs. VIX daily has accelerated up 5.4% and often leads VXX which only moved 1.4% so there is some upward divergence forming on VXX suggesting more short-term daily downside candles forming in the market probably with lots of overlap in prices.

Interesting that VXX seems to have a (concrete?) bottom formed since 8/26/20. That is quite unusual without a chronic accelerated decline in the market. It has not hit it's tipping point in time or it either: needs to make another low hit or take out it's current bottom. One or both could happen most likely when a weekly low put-call prints. Could be getting close when we see new, larger highs ('C' wave up). The end game seems to be in process- now just a matter of waiting and tracking criteria parameters.

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