Friday, October 2, 2020

It's Not The News- It's The Pattern Progression

EOD: Print is still on target for a "B' wave down to complete in the next few sessions. Weekly breadth signal line came up but held a little below the '0' datum. We anticipate additional downside as the vectors filled opening gaps although SP-500 may need more upside.

update: 12:20pm EST:  Vectors are most likely filling gaps created at the open. At the commencement of a more serious move, gaps are often left behind so full or partial filling like this could fit with our multi-day 'B' wave - down scenario with today's daily candle potentially being the longest overall in the candle group that will eventually terminate the wave near the target zone. Assuming this is indeed the 'B' wave and not a shorter and faster (white lettering) wave 'iv' down, of course.

Ok- headlines has a news event driving the market overnight once again. We will continue to reinforce the idea that this is never what is happening- never. How did we know a news event would take the market overnight to the price zone area we postulated yesterday? We did not. We still maintain the time window given in the last post to next week for completion for the small 'B' wave down if that is what it turns out to be. We could still be off but let's see how closely it tracks. One of the most difficult concepts to understand is the disconnection between the market and news that definitely exists no matter what it looks like. For example-we projected a large decline potential immediately prior to covid arriving in the USA. We asked the same question then- since the news was fussing that the market was hit by the virus, and if true, how did we know the future of the virus hitting? (nonsense, right?). Statistically large moves happen more often with no apparent news event in the proximity. At this point, this is not even a large move relatively speaking.

Back to price movements- notice the contracting right triangle forming as a right shoulder to a head-and-shoulder pattern miles ahead of the news event that happened later. Also there is a 'Pi' daily time divisor that just 'happened' to coincide timing-wise. A similar move happened on the previous day at that time but no one made a big fuss over it. Let's not get over-excited just yet. There is still ample time for patterns to print their intentions.

From yesterday's post: "B' target potentially 3280 price zone." -Once 'B' completes, a  'C' move up could finish this short/medium-term top. After a subsequent decline completes from this next terminal top, very likely off to new all-time-highs.

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