Accepting that historical patterns can often compare favorably with similar market moves going forward, the possibility of a top similar to 2015 has increasingly appeared on the radar. Both the summation index and multiple market index moves vs. volatility derivatives can focus down to likely projections when sufficient data has printed in all supporting criteria. The advanced state of this market is flashing some interesting signals as can be seen.
The projection going forward may or may not materialize as expected though likely a final dip-buying attempt to go higher is underway as turn signals down in volatility have occurred on 9/21 [medium] and 10/1 [small] = <market up>. A subsequent turn signal up in volatility = <market down> anywhere near here at a daily close could be terminal so watching daily for that. Opposing signals do not normally show up frequently but the volatility in the current set up is very noisy.
Tops usually require less volatility to appear than what we currently have even if market indexes are in the process of topping ahead or behind one another. Likely there will be at least one more attempt to enter the top zone for one or more indexes similar to 2015. Time may be running out.
Upper chart: 2015 vs. 2021 comparison of weekly SVXY overlay on summation index MACD / STOCH. There is often a very close relationship between this indicator and market extremes especially using a volatility derivative. The volatility top occurred on 8/19/15 approximately 8 trading sessions from the date of the 2015 chart date [8/7/15].
Lower chart: 2015 vs. 2021 comparison of daily [SVXY / SPX / INDU ] with BOLLINGER BANDS. The MACD for SVXY is also displayed.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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