EOD: VXX ended the day with an oversold ratio of 1.17- anything over 1.0 often means that the closing value is 'pegged' for a little while so we will see if a small pullback in the market begins.
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VIX gap closed today. September by seasonality is weak for stocks, same as March. End of quarter months. I wanted to understand your thought process, are you looking for 4600 as pivot or even pre-pivot top?
ReplyDeleteSecond question, NYSE summation index is below 3000 mark. You can looking for NYAD 50 DMA to have tail down to somewhere near 250? Apart from this indicator, what other indicators are you looking for?
Varun, Thank you for you question. ES 4600 price zone is a calculated target fib extension. About 80% of the time these targets are met or exceeded in the time frame from the leg up commencement. Sometimes they fail to complete at a higher degree. Regardless, the expectation is that the terminal top is likely not due to arrive for some time so any significant decline near here is likely a larger pivot. The 'tail down' requirement at higher degree tops in the NYAD WEEKLY 50MA print is based on several historical examples. At that time in the future [terminal top likely pending] it will require looking at movements in places like the summation index MACD and STOCHASTIC indicators at the weekly and daily levels. Specifically looking for a rollover down either just starting or nearing a low zone. Keeping an eye on VIX levels daily and weekly is also critical. VIX should be advancing after dipping to lows while the market is also advancing. Hope this helps. Stuart.
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