12:36pm EST: If the vectors continue as they are so far into the close, there is the possibility of a retest of the low range in the coming sessions before the continuation up restores. This is somewhat supported by the data on the summation index [daily] that is still printing 'bottoming' values and needs to yet gain upward traction and it's own rollover later on that typically flags a potential top.
Commentary: "Investors Ignoring Fed Tapering". The "ignoring" part is hardly an endorsement for charging ahead say in the case of ignoring gravity while approaching a cliff edge. Regarding the Fed- those decisions are already made for them by conditions. The same conditions exist in the trading environment. When one tapers, the other may also 'taper'- however the speed of the other 'taper' may approach super-sonic under the right conditions.
Original post-
ARMS index is not typically looked at but that doesn't negate looking at it another way. Readers of this blog will appreciate the way an index can be displayed by using only a moving average and discerning a pattern of behavior over the long haul.
The 200ma on the ARMS index is plotted below and the overlay is the summation index / sp-500 moving ratio. This is an unconventional approach but the repeating pattern of continuous shrinking right triangles is unmistakable. That pattern is not a 'quirk' of data alone- it appears to have consistency related to the market situation that all other large studies agree with.
For example- since 2013 the 200ma on the summation weekly has dropped 15% while SP-500 has increased 119% so a 'shrinkage' in [summ. / SP-500 ] is expected but cannot all be accounted for solely on the increase in SP-500. In the case of a sole increase in SP-500 with a level summation index, the last triangle should be of larger amplitude and the top closer to 1145 - 1150 not 1125 which may not sound like much but is statistically relevant to the decline that's on-going currently at a larger degree.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
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