Saturday, September 25, 2021

Potential Incomplete Bottoming Process

9/26/21 Update: Lower Chart- Bollinger Band study on SVXY + DOW overlay from 2020 top and current. Two big take-aways are: a] the SVXY MACD is pretty much at the same numerical level for both years turning down b] volatility turn signals <up> have printed on multiple occasions in the last two months. Normally an average of one every 12-18+ months has printed. This set up looks like it's about to get extremely interesting.

Commentary: it has been noted in the past close to tops that there are some 'crash' concern articles suddenly appearing followed a time later by 'going to the moon' analyses. That is being observed currently. Just a behavior observation, not a flag. Some distance to go yet but may not be huge to the upside. We shall have to see.

Original post-
The ratio of price difference in the spread across high and low ranges of indexes and instruments in the overall picture may be giving a clue. The daily closing prices are mostly inside the bounded boxes shown. Look at the ratio across all the highs together and then the lows together as groups and the geometry of the box they land in at their lows prior to the 2020 top. Now look at a geometric box surrounding the recent pullback here in 2021. The obvious size and ratio difference may well be a clue to why the terminal top is some distance away. There likely needs to be a tighter ratio on indexes and derivatives at the lows. Whether the bounding box will be lower may not be relevant just so long as it can be seen to approach a percentage closer to what is considered normal. Of course, this could not have any meaning but it should be pointed out as it does fit with more recent analyses.

If there is a price acceleration in either direction that takes out the range quickly then a new analysis will be required.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
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