Monday, August 23, 2021

Volatility Derivatives Are Confirming The Turn Up Signal [Market May Correct]]

EOD: ES cash gap is now filled. If a turn up signal in volatility is setting-up, most likely it will print in the next few sessions or near the week ending close [on Fri. or before/after]. So far all the vectors look as expected. A departure from expectations will require a new analysis.

The weekly turn up signal in volatility that printed at the close on Fri. 8/20/21 may be confirming with today's action. A few more sessions may produce a daily turn up signal in volatility that would be a 'heads up' to watch for a near-term decline. After that completes-new highs will most likely print in either a pivot or a terminal top [later this year perhaps]. If this analysis is premature, the pattern may be more closely resembling that on 6/14/21 with new highs to come in SVXY almost immediately which would negate the negative divergence shown so far. Data as of today is leaning with the turn up signal in volatility. Keeping watch on SVXY behavior,

5-months of daily MACD below looks intimidating.
 
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