EOD: Closing ratios look like the decline has max'd out. Let's see if it retests tomorrow or goes even lower. Overall, the decline so far has been timid with VXX accumulating +20% compared to VIX moving up +50-60% o/all. Could be done for now. Most likely falls under the category of part whiplash / part signal
Update: 2:55pm EST: There were two back-to-back daily turn signals - one at the close on 8/16 and one at the close on 8/17. The second turn signal was valid and not marginal like the first on 8/16 that was posted on. The second was not looked at unfortunately so that apparently made up for the fact that there wasn't a crossover up on the VXX MACD short term. At least it was spotted eventually. In this case, possibly the decline that is underway will continue until a turn signal in the other direction [up] displays.
However, the unconventional nature of these patterns beyond 'normal' make that difficult to predict. More care will be taken in future monitoring closing signals even when one shows up since the back-to-back signals on weekly and daily are now starting to appear short-term. Perhaps as a way to burn off excess over-bought prices rather than the dramatic down move that was expected as a result of the weekly hard drop in the NYAD MACD recently posted on.
Original post-
Regarding the turn signal announcement on Mon. 8/16/21 after the close- the higher daily MACD print requirement may have been partially fulfilled without a crossover owing to the fact that this was #3 daily higher print over a period of four months with prior lower crossovers up on 4/19/21 and 7/1/21 which created a growing positive divergence in VXX and perhaps some of that required 'burning off' prior to something larger setting up. Also of note- the weekly VXX MACD retested and crossed back up above the signal line on 6/14/21 after hitting and sustainably moving up from a 2-year low previously.
Emphasis is also on the 7/1/21 crossover up time window as two weekly turn ratios back to back printed immediately after. However it cannot easily be discounted that a crossover up and a filling of the VIX gap is typically a requirement for a larger degree decline in the market [not withstanding a weekly turn signal usual at major topping price zones]. Progression in this current decline may or may not be the beginning of something larger. A new analysis is under review.
A watch is now in place for a turn signal in the other direction [up in the market]. There may or may not be a timely turn signal as whipsaws tend to bounce very quickly whereas a sustained higher degree decline often creates a turn signal in a more timely fashion. This move looks suspiciously closer to a whipsaw than a sustained higher degree decline. The weekend session may provide a better clue.
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