EOD: Technically, we had a nominal turn signal structure but it was very minimal and looked premature but was a hopeful sign for those looking to short the market near-term in the coming sessions. A more complete turn signal may appear soon. Specifically the daily VIX up gap needs to close and VXX MACD needs to cross up above the signal line. Once those are in place a turn signal may then be forthcoming. It will be announced here when spotted. Breadth closed today about 20% lower than an average first day's negative breadth in a turn signal week so that is within expected parameters.
:15pm EST: Looks like there may be intent to create a turn signal soon however, VIX has a gap up that will likely need to be closed and VXX needs to print a daily crossover up on it's MACD though it has closed it's gap up today. These events could still materialize in the coming sessions unless a surge up in the market occurs which will invalidate potential current short-term patterns for now.
10:22am EST: Once again there is an early morning attempt to create an intra-day turn signal but as noted before on numerous occasions, early intra-day signals rarely make it to a closing signal so there will be a watch for the data to show one at the close or not. The price levels however might favor one appearing soon even at the close.
Original post-
After a re-examination of the weekly turn ratio flag on NYAD breadth chart, there may have been a premature signal inside the stricter criteria framework normally associated with this particular flag type. In other words- on a weekly advance-decline basis, this signal is typically effective as a higher degree signal when it appears after the NYAD MACD weekly signal print crosses below zero. In this case it was immediately prior to that cross-over below zero. This puts it in question. There was also a second weekly turn ratio immediately following which is highly unusual and also puts the first one in question regarding the significance at this location [only in regards to the larger degree potential]. There was a short term burst down in the market that had many running for the hills at the time which is also a clue as to that event not appearing in it's correct location as typically it does not cause an over-reaction in negative sentiment.
Adding to this is the 'tail-down' requirement in the 50ma print in NYAD weekly advance-decline [not the MACD] that also looks to be insufficient. The concluding projection is that likely there needs to be another weekly turn signal at the correct location which could appear after the NYAD MACD signal line is below the zero datum for 3 + weeks which it currently is. There may well be short-term volatility but a terminal [final] top does not seem to be imminent as of this post.
As always- if this revised analysis is off, it will become apparent soon enough at which time a new analysis will be forthcoming- AND please ignore attempts by tea leaf reader's to connect news events to markets in order to either spook or encourage everybody. Unbelievable number of errors created this way. Stick with the 'historically established probability' data analyses.
See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
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Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
note: in the chart, the label marked '+275' [Oct 2018] is actually closer to +260.
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