Still Diverging And Target Zones Hitting

2:33pm EST: VIX is right up against 16.02 with a gap at 16.02 - 15.72. The market will likely 'nickel and dime' it's way into a turn signal which is typical behavior at tops with everyone cooing about record highs.

ES cash and SP-500 hitting new highs, SVXY is not yet but the 5-month pattern is trending down so it may not matter whether volatility derivatives do follow or not- a divergence still exists either way. A turn signal will likely resolve the issue.

Expecting a crossover down to begin on SVXY daily indicators any time in the coming week[s]. A subsequent turn signal print could create fireworks when that happens. Inset at chart right is an August thumbnail close up.

See previous post for overall critical perspective view.

VIX has a daily gap at 16.02 - 15.72. Current cash low is 16.11. Probably this will require closing so that's going to be the waiting game at the moment whatever else happens in the meanwhile.

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Divergences Are Popping Out- Targets Are Hitting

Too many alignments to be ignored. ES targets are hitting.

A corrective somewhere near here could set it up for a grand finale later this year. Specifically there needs to be a 'tail-down' in the NYAD weekly 50ma print. Currently it's at the 448 level and it needs to drop to 250 or thereabouts so some serious attrition needs to occur in breadth. The coming correction could get us close. New all time highs will be required later on. Quite a lot more activity yet needs to happen. Fasten your seat belts.

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Make Or Break Target Zone Entry

See updated weekend post

EOD: Likely the 'long' 3 will create a pullback and then a mini-top higher in ES which would be typical. It could do this with inverse volatility SVXY derivative going lower as volatility moves up per the recent projection.

Unless the analysis needs re-vamping, the current leg could complete with a 'long' 3 waves up. A turn signal up in volatility that creates adjacent mkt. declines in the following sessions will be required to confirm.

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28-Year Chart Of Rising Volatility. Mini-Top Turn Signal Watch Active.

See new posting

1:19pm EST: ES futures target [three waves] up at 4509 price zone. Let's see what the reaction is, if any. Meanwhile, other vectors are hammering on their targets, if any break through it could mean the current analysis will need re-vamping.

VIX weekly chart ma's tell a story.

SP-500 vx SVXY still on track so far. Waiting for turn signal towards a mini-top. Yesterday's vectors were neutral as are today's so far so market moves most likely to remain in a range. Any dramatic surge out of range will require a new analysis.

Potential TODAY is there for a WEEKLY max'd up move on 50ma breadth [NYAD] into a topping area. The 50ma is printing what looks like an expanding diagonal triangle up and the current leg has all the hallmarks of an E wave up. This could be significant timing for a pivot to commence soon [or more likely- a pre-pivot decline of some degree]. A market terminal top is some way off yet.

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Mini-Top Potential

Volatility often leads/lags market tops. Derivatives many times give a better clue as to what the underlying conditions are like. Such is the case at the moment. Some underpinnings at the daily [and some weekly] levels may be showing a corrective inclination.

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Vix Gap Up From 8/16/21 May Need Filling

EOD: The close printed a small divergence between $vix [+ 0.41%] and vxx [- 0.37%] so nothing definitive to report except the door remains open.

2:44pm EST: After reviewing- the short-term gap up in VIX does not need to be of concern at this degree A longer term gap has already closed opening the door to a minor decline in the market. So far all vectors look to be aligning in support of a turn signal up in volatility on the daily chart which, together with the weekly turn up that just printed, will likely produce a reaction. A turn signal watch is now effective. Depending on how today closes, that could elevate to a warning. A warning is not required however, it is just a possibility and often takes the form of an exhaustion vector down in VXX. Current conditions are indeed lining up an exhaustion vector down in VXX but it will need to print at the close to confirm.

Original post-
Waiting to see if VIX gap up will fill from 8/16/21. The daily turn signal that printed at the close on 8/17/21 [unpublished] did not have the VIX gap filled which meant surrounding criteria supporting the turn signal was lacking [which was why a post wasn't issued] - the turn up signal in volatility only produced a minor short-term decline. Since there is the expectation for another daily turn signal up in volatility soon- the question begs- will the VIX gap stay open? It may not matter at a near-term degree:

On 7/6/21 a VIX gap up preceded a 10-day decline of minor degree so the option is open even with an unfilled VIX gap up created in a local time window.

A prior VIX gap up that was being watched from 7/6/21 was filled on 8/13/21 just before the above mentioned turn signal on 8/17/21. The current gaps are local inside a shorter time window and are entirely appropriate in a volatility launch up leg situation.

ES 5000+ ANYONE? [see bottom chart]

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Volatility Derivatives Are Confirming The Turn Up Signal [Market May Correct]]

EOD: ES cash gap is now filled. If a turn up signal in volatility is setting-up, most likely it will print in the next few sessions or near the week ending close [on Fri. or before/after]. So far all the vectors look as expected. A departure from expectations will require a new analysis.

The weekly turn up signal in volatility that printed at the close on Fri. 8/20/21 may be confirming with today's action. A few more sessions may produce a daily turn up signal in volatility that would be a 'heads up' to watch for a near-term decline. After that completes-new highs will most likely print in either a pivot or a terminal top [later this year perhaps]. If this analysis is premature, the pattern may be more closely resembling that on 6/14/21 with new highs to come in SVXY almost immediately which would negate the negative divergence shown so far. Data as of today is leaning with the turn up signal in volatility. Keeping watch on SVXY behavior,

5-months of daily MACD below looks intimidating.
 
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Might Need To Re-Cork The Champagne At Least For A While

8/21/21: After a more detailed review, it certainly looks like conditions are favorable for a new leg down to materialize in the coming sessions next week. Likely a topping process for a pivot top- not a terminal one: that should come later on this year.

Original post-
Note-  'turn up signal [ratio]' in volatility = [market declines begin nearby]

EOD: Strange as it may seem- there was a weekly 'turn up signal' in volatility at the close that remained pretty much in place the whole day. This is on the WEEKLY degree chart. The daily obviously was a different ratio due to the bounce. How do we resolve this? As the character says "just the facts Ma'm" -

Weekly signals carry more weight as long as they meet surrounding criteria. This signal does. Since it indicates a 'turn up' on volatility, prices in ES may go wherever they wish but upside near-term is probably limited. There will be a continuing watch daily and weekly on turn ratio signals in both directions until a resolution appears.

3:45pm EST: If current vector ratio holds through to the close, the setup will be- a continuous 4-week negative breadth signal line [below zero] on the weekly NYAD MACD chart together with a favorable 'turn up ratio' [in volatility] on the weekly vector itself. This will take more time to resolve one way or the other.

Original post-
Nice expected bounce right at the target zone HOWEVER there could be a weekly turn signal [breadth could be heading down again] due to conditions developing on the NYAD MACD - currently the signal line is below zero and has been for a few weeks. The previous posts on weekly turn up signals on volatility were premature at a higher degree though they did have an impact causing a market near-term smallish decline [mid July '21] and more importantly- several technical underpinnings also took a serious hit at that time*. Notice in the chart, the weekly turn signal [down market potential] at ES price, if it materializes by the close today, could be aligned with the daily signal that printed on 8/17/21. A gap was created in cash just above and around those two [daily degree] turn signals.

* daily summation index 50ma dropped -6% and crossed below 200ma on 7/20-7/21. Since then it has continued in a straight-ish diagonal line down to -29% currently, That total drop is from it's previous lower high on 6/24.  Not a great signal for a near term positive market to continue without some correction along the way. The weekly has not crossed over downward yet but it appears to be  rolling over.

The near-term bottom in ES could certainly be established but the door may be open for a retest of some kind before a confirmed up move in the market happens. The closing ratios will provide a better clue. There is a gap at [ES cash] price zone 4454 - 4470 that may need to fill but it is not required for a turn-up signal in volatility to print at the daily level.

Technical Memo Note: For the majority of the week, volatility derivative VXX was not at max performance and then on Thurs. 8/19 it was overbought compared with standard volatility measures at a ratio of 5:1- anything above 1:1 often pegs the market at that location due to exhaustion which is why it may well hold near-term. No guarantees however. The market is in stretched ground. A new leg-down, if it materializes, could certainly attack it.

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.and this you might expect to see when a weekly 'turn up signal' in volatility prints albeit after a strong daily bounce- [cheers!]. Hint: a contrarian signal perhaps? :

'Nominal' Turn Signal Posted Monday + Current Targets

EOD: Closing ratios look like the decline has max'd out. Let's see if it retests tomorrow or goes even lower. Overall, the decline so far has been timid with VXX accumulating +20% compared to VIX moving up +50-60% o/all. Could be done for now. Most likely falls under the category of part whiplash / part signal

Update: 2:55pm EST: There were two back-to-back daily turn signals - one at the close on 8/16 and one at the close on 8/17. The second turn signal was valid and not marginal like the first on 8/16 that was posted on. The second was not looked at unfortunately so that apparently made up for the fact that there wasn't a crossover up on the VXX MACD short term. At least it was spotted eventually. In this case, possibly the decline that is underway will continue until a turn signal in the other direction [up] displays.

However, the unconventional nature of these patterns beyond 'normal' make that difficult to predict. More care will be taken in future monitoring closing signals even when one shows up since the back-to-back signals on weekly and daily are now starting to appear short-term. Perhaps as a way to burn off excess over-bought prices rather than the dramatic down move that was expected as a result of the weekly hard drop in the NYAD MACD recently posted on.

Original post-
Regarding the turn signal announcement on Mon. 8/16/21 after the close- the higher daily MACD print requirement may have been partially fulfilled without a crossover owing to the fact that this was #3 daily higher print over a period of four months with prior lower crossovers up on 4/19/21 and 7/1/21 which created a growing positive divergence in VXX and perhaps some of that required 'burning off' prior to something larger setting up. Also of note- the weekly VXX MACD retested and crossed back up above the signal line on 6/14/21 after hitting and sustainably moving up from a 2-year low previously.

Emphasis is also on the 7/1/21 crossover up time window as two weekly turn ratios back to back printed immediately after. However it cannot easily be discounted that a crossover up and a filling of the VIX gap is typically a requirement for a larger degree decline in the market [not withstanding a weekly turn signal usual at major topping price zones]. Progression in this current decline may or may not be the beginning of something larger. A new analysis is under review. 

A watch is now in place for a turn signal in the other direction [up in the market]. There may or may not be a timely turn signal as whipsaws tend to bounce very quickly whereas a sustained higher degree decline often creates a turn signal in a more timely fashion. This move looks suspiciously closer to a whipsaw than a sustained higher degree decline. The weekend session may provide a better clue.

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Measured Moves Down Hit Extension Targets

Thurs. 8/19/21 5:47 am EST: Looks like it's going for 5 waves down or a longer 3 down. See new posting.

Original post:
Potential for a reversal back up soon may fill VIX lower gap. Once that gap fills, a second turn signal watch is definitely activated. [An early turn signal was flagged on Mon 8/16/21]

If the extension targets are valid in completing this week's decline that was announced at the close on Monday, there could be some attempt to retrace or begin a new leg up.

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Update: Wave [V] Still In Play

EOD: VXX daily MACD is finally in contact with the signal line and is just a hair below it. This is encouraging towards completing conditions necessary for a turn signal that could facilitate a short-term market decline for those inclined to trade it. VIX still has a gap lower that most likely requires to be filled before a more serious decline [potentially a short-term drop at a degree higher than the current few day's decline] can happen. That event may also necessitate a new high in the market somewhere. Regardless- the VXX MACD daily plot needs to remain clear and above the signal line going forward. A cross back below will cause a re-set to occur if not a total invalidation of the structure. If it simply 'kisses' the red signal line and still continues up, that keeps it on track for a mini-top to develop. Closing ratio looks encouraging for more decline in the market to continue at this degree but still do not have all the conditions for a larger decline. Perhaps we have an exception to typical criteria being unfilled- that remains to be seen. If we have missed something critical - that will soon become apparent.

Original post-
Breadth was oversold somewhat so a retrace or more could occur on the daily print. VIX daily still has a lower gap to fill- that could initiate a retrace up in the market.

Summation index daily STOCHASTIC is rolling over from a high and VXX daily MACD is TURNING UP. The VXX MACD needs to cross upwards over the daily signal line in order to process a turn signal near that event. The market is likely setting up for a larger decline than this week's attempt which probably will begin in the current price zone upper range or higher. It is not required to go higher of course. It could begin to decline once the other criteria are in place. In that case wave [V] likely will be done.

The UPPER chart shows the large degree progress regarding weekly closing breadth for an estimate on a terminal top to arrive later. A minimum 'tail-down' on the 50 ma exists at the 325 level. The average target level is at 260. Current intra-week shows level 344 so there is quite a bit more to go.

The LOWER chart shows that the VIX has something in mind for it's future. The last print at 17.91 is for the current week and has a few more days to run before it has a final weekly print showing so it could change direction and amplitude. It could double back to retest the last low in which case the MACD could kiss the red signal line again. Patience is required.

Any sudden, large breadth or price surges up or down may require a new analysis.

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Wave '[V]' Likely Showing Intent To Complete

10:47am EST: Today's ratio so far shows a supporting momentum for the market engaging in a daily decline overall but not a technical turn signal just yet. 

VIX has a gap below it that probably needs to fill and DAILY VXX MACD is required to cross-over upwards above the signal line. That will create conditions to facilitate a turn signal if that's what we are seeing developing. A wave '[V]' may terminate in that proximity either with, ahead or behind VXX turning up.

Original post-
Potential turn signal looks to be under construction as of yesterday's closing ratios. If so, likely not at a terminal top just yet but a near-term decline that could get hairy.

Also note this is week 4 for the NYAD MACD WEEKLY signal to occupy a below zero position which puts the market in the running for a correction at some degree pending. The average time spent prior to a decline is 7 weeks and the smallest is 5 weeks so it is closing in on a time window historically. The next decline is likely to be a 'pivot' which is still not a terminal top- historically that is what the market often does.

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Terminal Top 'Some' Distance Away

EOD:  Technically, we had a nominal turn signal structure but it was very minimal and looked premature but was a hopeful sign for those looking to short the market near-term in the coming sessions. A more complete turn signal may appear soon. Specifically the daily VIX up gap needs to close and VXX MACD needs to cross up above the signal line. Once those are in place a turn signal may then be forthcoming. It will be announced here when spotted. Breadth closed today about 20% lower than an average first day's negative breadth in a turn signal week so that is within expected parameters.

:15pm EST:  Looks like there may be intent to create a turn signal soon however, VIX has a gap up that will likely need to be closed and VXX needs to print a daily crossover up on it's MACD though it has closed it's gap up today.  These events could still materialize in the coming sessions unless a surge up in the market occurs which will invalidate potential current short-term patterns for now.

10:22am EST:  Once again there is an early morning attempt to create an intra-day turn signal but as noted before on numerous occasions, early intra-day signals rarely make it to a closing signal so there will be a watch for the data to show one at the close or not. The price levels however might favor one appearing soon even at the close.

Original post-
After a re-examination of the weekly turn ratio flag on NYAD breadth chart, there may have been a premature signal inside the stricter criteria framework normally associated with this particular flag type. In other words- on a weekly advance-decline basis, this signal is typically effective as a higher degree signal when it appears after the NYAD MACD weekly signal print crosses below zero.  In this case it was immediately prior to that cross-over below zero. This puts it in question. There was also a second weekly turn ratio immediately following which is highly unusual and also puts the first one in question regarding the significance at this location [only in regards to the larger degree potential]. There was a short term burst down in the market that had many running for the hills at the time which is also a clue as to that event not appearing in it's correct location as typically it does not cause an over-reaction in negative sentiment.

Adding to this is the 'tail-down' requirement in the 50ma print in NYAD weekly advance-decline [not the MACD] that also looks to be insufficient. The concluding projection is that likely there needs to be another weekly turn signal at the correct location which could appear after the NYAD MACD signal line is below the zero datum for 3 + weeks which it currently is. There may well be short-term volatility but a terminal [final] top does not seem to be imminent as of this post.

As always- if this revised analysis is off, it will become apparent soon enough at which time a new analysis will be forthcoming- AND please ignore attempts by tea leaf reader's to connect news events to markets in order to either spook or encourage everybody. Unbelievable number of errors created this way. Stick with the 'historically established probability' data analyses.

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note: in the chart, the label marked '+275' [Oct 2018] is actually closer to +260.

Critical Now: A Turn Ratio Flag Or Invalidation Of VIX Low

2:11pm EST: Looks like next stop in ES is 4469.25 zone or thereabouts.

11:39am EST: CHART UPDATE- THE ORIGINAL VECTOR PROJECTION AT THE WEEKLY TURN SIGNAL LOOKS TO BE IN PLAY.


10:06am EST:Intra-day started out with a promising attempt to print a turn ratio from the VXX low however, rarely do morning propagations survive through to the close so we will have to see if this one has any staying power. One good thing is that this is the closest we have come to a turn signal even at the intra-day level so perhaps one will be forthcoming soon. It will need to scale up as it is currently only marginal so perhaps a better prospect will appear in the coming sessions if not today.

After reviewing the VXX action, it looks like a 'clean' vector hit at the close from a vector that commenced on 8/3/21. There could be more but not much more if a daily turn signal in volatility flags somewhere near here. If the VIX low is pierced from 7/9/21, the projection will likely will require a fresh analysis otherwise the turn signal 'watch' remains active. Note: that the VIX gap has not filled yet [14.0 zone] so that would probably get us a lower VXX print somewhere.

Typical behavior would be a VXX bottom on [or in close proximity to] a week-ending session followed by a turn signal either that same day or a few days later. ES could print higher or lower in this window but the turn signal is likely the key to an impending decline. However- too much negativity in the market blogs could derail or delay any potential terminal action but likely will not reverse what the market intends either way.

Ref- [both weekly 200ma charts are relatively unchanged]:
Precipitous drop setting up a bear flag?
ARMS index set up

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ES May Not Make 4500- Why It Doesn't Matter

EOD: VXX hit 26.66 cash target- [possible short-term support?]. ES hit 4443.25 zone early and at the close - [potential short-term resistance?]. Breadth printed a bullish histogram bar- the third longest up since 8/3/21- looks like it's trending up to a lower overall peak on the daily [expected]. VIX has not filled it's gap from 7/6/21 but is right up against it at 15.87. VIX is still above it's low from 6/29/21. It could retest that area [14.00 zone].

3:36pm EST: VXX possibly had a longer target in mind at 26.67 zone which is a straight shot fib extension ['long' x 2.6] from a vector that commenced on 8/3 - [p/b 8/4]. Let's see if that provides a temporary support.

11:24am EST:  VXX hit a [long x fib 2.6] target at 27.07 [27.08 zone plotted on updated chart] and is bouncing from there. This likely will form the first of two more vectors pointing to a final VXX target. If a turn signal prints prior to that completing- VXX is likely essentially done. Otherwise the turn signal watch remains active.

10:30am EST: VIX has a lower gap at 15.15 - 15.70 zone so that may be a target but it still remains above the weekly bottom that was flagged on 7/9/21 at 14.03. Likely more time and lower VXX prices will be added for this to fill. Meanwhile ES could go anywhere higher. It isn't required for the VIX gap to be filled but it is likely.

Original post-
Often round number targets are the attractant but the market tipping points do not care. If a gas tank holds 9.8 gallons, it won't matter that you were counting on a 10 gallon fill-up before setting off on a journey. A market tipping point is established by numerous hidden participating variables that eventually strike a limiting function. When that place gets hit it's a 'temporary' bye-bye time because even though it's always a bullish market, corrections at some degree are required.

ES4500 could just as easily show up as not. It does not matter. The only thing that matters is the size and location of a significant turn signal that likely represents a higher degree than 'normal' [and that is whatever your trading strategy permits - are you holding for decades or years/months?]. Every participant has a time-frame/strategy.

The market flagged a weekly turn signal on 7/9/21 where volatility struck a low target which signal only happens infrequently at this degree. See prior post.

The chart at bottom is a reprint from 8/6/21 and since then breadth is indeed 'advancing' in small up/down increments getting ever smaller [histogram bars are shrinking] -that action is a heads-up moment at this juncture especially if it continues as expected. When that last strike hits, the market position may continue higher or not. The die is likely cast for a correction to follow. The market acts like it is not in a selling mood so a collapse in bids may be the precursor to a selling event that escalates. That is often a dramatic move. When that happens, expect headlines like 'Virus Crashes Market', 'Inflation Fears Crash Market' etc. - all made up tea-leaf readings. Pick one. Any will do- they all work to 'explain' a drop except the real reason. The market buying ran out of buyers at this price point.

Selling at regular intervals keeps the market buoyant. Charts are showing a stretched situation and this next one has the potential to be a doozy. A daily turn signal 'watch' is now active. There could be one more small vector to print in the volatility derivative VXX after a very short-term pullback in market prices. That target has the potential to be all that she wrote for now.

Comment: Many market blogs singing the 'record highs' hymn is normal behavior and is indicative of a celebratory sentiment that often reflects exuberant 'hope' that can accelerate late in the game. In fact we pretty much count on it otherwise we would be inclined to triple-check the current analysis for anything we missed. Descriptors like 'surge' are a give-away for these less-than-impressive price advances overall even though some indexes fall behind and the 'surge' is in playing catch up- it's a buyer's rotation into 'dipped prices' [on sale] indexes. Most likely not much more than that but still potential short-term price gains that are intrinsic in the market as a whole at this point as more and more indexes finally hit the 'full' reading on their fuel gauges. Could it continue for days/weeks/months? - sure if the analysis here is way off,  that will soon be apparent.

Ref- [both weekly 200ma charts are relatively unchanged]:
Precipitous drop setting up a bear flag?
ARMS index set up

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