Update 6/6/20 3:52am EST. Looks like we needed to include the alt (W) vector point in the VXX layout which we had debated but weren't convinced on it's validity yet. The W point moves to 36.23 from 34.98. The resulting Z point moves to 28.96 zone or lower. ES moves to 3172.25 zone or in that vicinity so far o/night hours. The final ES target will likely be an extension higher (3182 zone shows up potentially on the radar) or wherever VXX meets it's Z target. If VXX fails to take out 31.03 current low zone or thereabouts (there is a potential marginally lower target just below 31.03) and accelerates up, then the original W anchor target will come into focus again. The pattern is a tad complex because it could be a 'nested' form in the VXX print with the previous low at 28.82 (outside leg at higher degree). Both positions for W anchor seem to have valid arguments for the moment at least.
Daily breadth may have peaked as it moved towards zero from negative values during a 12-day period. It is typical for tops to be created in this type of action. Lei's see what follow-through we get. Vector signals were identified and triple-checked at all the fib extensions moving down in VXX as shown. Fib extensions with vector signals typically align in increments finally hitting the 100% extension zone. The final VXX hit also matches an alignment with the ES upper price extension which looks favorable for a top print to be imminent if not already completed. Could the moves morph into something other than what is observed?- of course but we can only analyze what is apparent currently and what we have learned historically. Using empirical models we created last year we have a proven track record that is in the high 80-90 % reliability area.
The main take-away from the lower speculative chart is the outside megaphone. Readers of this blog will have been introduced to this layout some months back just prior to the C - D leg occurring and it was predicted during that period except the speed of the move was impressive. It should be noted that this action in a megaphone leg often predicates the final move (up to E). The fact that it did happen this way reinforces the idea that the outside megaphone as shown is indeed a valid projection. Megaphones are corrective structures which also reinforces the idea that a Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 is completing with a corrective move. The Wave 3 'corrective' finish structural idea was proposed by Glenn Neely and has been observed historically just not at this degree.
The alternate scenario on this chart has to be given equal possibility due to the lack of recovery in SVXY. Comparing behavior with 2015, it can be seen that SVXY also experienced an impressive drop but did not recover until a second move lower while the S&P moved up impressively and then had to go lower with SVXY in a second move down. This second medium degree move lower did the trick and SVXY recovered. Could it require 3 medium degree moves with a third arriving later this year? We are dealing with a serious corrective wave up and down that can and does go anywhere which is why it is important to stick with the empirical criteria that keeps us aligned and not 'visualize' where we 'believe' it has to go- therein lies distraction and likely failure to react correctly.
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