See latest post
A top of nominal size just flagged so we will need to see how this develops as it is still inside a potential megaphone or other structure so it could prove to be an internal leg or something greater. All vectors are on board the move so far. A retrace to less than 2965.00 is expected. A marginal higher high without volatility lows being taken out will still be potentially valid. Unlike the previous violent drop, expectation is for this one to build momentum in some way prior to the previous lows being challenged.
The signal level on the daily advance-decline ($nyad) is positive at +160 which probably needs to decline into negative territory prior to conditions facilitating a larger down move.
Note: Yesterday 4/29/20 is very close to 30 x Pi calendar days (94) from 1/26/20 -a price top on the previous megaphone. As noted in prior posts, whole round number Pi days (number of days / 3.1416) that are counted between specific dates of prior events can coincide with new events. The theory demonstrated on numerous occasions is that the swinging of a pendulum which is essentially a segment of circular motion is connected to many natural cycles including market timing at various scales- the 8.6 yr cycle being significant (1000 x Pi days) for example. It is only mentioned here for reference. It is never used to create a VectorSpike signal but it is nonetheless of unique interest.
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Thursday, April 30, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Topping Structure Printing- Watch Is Active
See latest post
EOD: Pullbacks are all being bought until they aren't. VXX looks like it is bottoming so caution is warrantied.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
EOD: Pullbacks are all being bought until they aren't. VXX looks like it is bottoming so caution is warrantied.
See Important Long-Term VIX Study
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/6/20, 3/9/20, ? } x 3**
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
Added 5/2/20: note that the Pi distance (calendar days total / 3.1416) between each megaphone 'B' is 30. Whole round Pi numbers (30) are often significant date markers.
Added 5/2/20: note that the Pi distance (calendar days total / 3.1416) between each megaphone 'B' is 30. Whole round Pi numbers (30) are often significant date markers.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
15min Projection Targets
EOD: Waiting for a top confirmation at the megaphone (large B). A non-confirmation could still produce some downward movement but it would most likely only be a whipsaw so we would rather wait for the clear top flag signal to trigger. Looks like a 1/A down at ES 2851 so a retrace back up from there could potentially get us to an acceleration top lower than 2913.50 or a final top higher up. Either way, it is getting much closer and now there is the advantage of seeing more clearly what structure we are likely dealing with.
Update 1:52 pm EST, Megaphone top or triangle structure /other? - the perfect device to shake out both sides of market positions. Targets at top (large B) may or may not have printed yet. Could be in the zone currently. More downside may confirm leg large B to C is underway. Looks impulsive down and corrective up so far,
Update 11:00am EST, Looks like an a-b-c up completed and could be a 1/a down beginning. VXX hit its bottom target number from yesterday (36.95 zone) and appears to be moving up. Not all the vectors are on board just yet so could be another whipsaw.
Update 1:52 pm EST, Megaphone top or triangle structure /other? - the perfect device to shake out both sides of market positions. Targets at top (large B) may or may not have printed yet. Could be in the zone currently. More downside may confirm leg large B to C is underway. Looks impulsive down and corrective up so far,
Update 11:00am EST, Looks like an a-b-c up completed and could be a 1/a down beginning. VXX hit its bottom target number from yesterday (36.95 zone) and appears to be moving up. Not all the vectors are on board just yet so could be another whipsaw.
Original post-
It was anticipated that there would be range movement for a while to burn off negativity and that is definitely bearing out. Newer ES highs have not created new volatility lows since 4/14/20 but a new low in volatility is now on the radar or at least something close. We may have printed 2 pre-top moves which is unusual but if true, then this next print should take us to a final target higher in ES.
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Monday, April 27, 2020
Price Targets- Cash Highs
Update: 2:47pm EST. Looks like ES will target prices a little higher (2887.25) but still getting close to a resolution. VXX has a possible lower fib. target at 36.95 zone. it is currently 37.91 low. It is not required to hit the lower fib. target -it's just a possible extension target within a standard range heading down = 38.22 to 36.95 (today's calculation)
Could be nearing completion unless new cash highs are in the market intentions. The remaining gaps lower in VXX (volatility derivative) are closing so that is important although it is not far away from taking out it's low from 4/14/20. A not surprising development given how many were expecting another leg down. The negativity burn off continues until it completes. Prior ES high of 2885 from 4/17/20 (o/night) is still holding as is VXX low from 4/14/20. All the vectors look to be trying to reverse which will support more market downside so we will see how well those close out today.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Could be nearing completion unless new cash highs are in the market intentions. The remaining gaps lower in VXX (volatility derivative) are closing so that is important although it is not far away from taking out it's low from 4/14/20. A not surprising development given how many were expecting another leg down. The negativity burn off continues until it completes. Prior ES high of 2885 from 4/17/20 (o/night) is still holding as is VXX low from 4/14/20. All the vectors look to be trying to reverse which will support more market downside so we will see how well those close out today.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Friday, April 24, 2020
Target Prices- Negativity Burn-Off
EOD Vectors did indeed indicate a move that went higher (2832.50 zone). Potential '5/e' price at 2836.75 still holding and a vector reaction at the close looked unsupportive of anymore immediate highs so we will see next week.
Update 2:12pm EST. Vectors are trying very hard to reverse directions to move the market upwards. It is a mid-channel move so will have to see how committed the move is going to be.
ES Prices at zone 5/e may not have concluded. Or they have. Either way the negativity needs to be burned off before any more downward movement with earnest can begin. Daily breadth has not returned to a negative signal but it is descending. Weekly is definitely in negative territory and ascending but it is slowing so a move could be coming within the ensuing week. Could be in for a wait. Ignore the politics and the nasty bug (only regarding those things as being drivers of the market)- it's all about the money on or off the table and always has been- can't restate this enough. The charts mostly tell us where things are headed. Even before the 'bug' arrived the posts here were warning big stuff was coming. How did we know? We didn't- the charts did.
Yes- it 'looks' like a head-and-shoulders on ES prices but the so-called 'classic' price patterns are notoriously unreliable. The vectors tell a much more (90%) reliable story.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update 2:12pm EST. Vectors are trying very hard to reverse directions to move the market upwards. It is a mid-channel move so will have to see how committed the move is going to be.
ES Prices at zone 5/e may not have concluded. Or they have. Either way the negativity needs to be burned off before any more downward movement with earnest can begin. Daily breadth has not returned to a negative signal but it is descending. Weekly is definitely in negative territory and ascending but it is slowing so a move could be coming within the ensuing week. Could be in for a wait. Ignore the politics and the nasty bug (only regarding those things as being drivers of the market)- it's all about the money on or off the table and always has been- can't restate this enough. The charts mostly tell us where things are headed. Even before the 'bug' arrived the posts here were warning big stuff was coming. How did we know? We didn't- the charts did.
Yes- it 'looks' like a head-and-shoulders on ES prices but the so-called 'classic' price patterns are notoriously unreliable. The vectors tell a much more (90%) reliable story.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
See Important Long-Term VIX Study
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/6/20, 3/9/20, ? } x 3**
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
Chart 1 from 4/23/20- this high still holding: Chart 2 (below) from 4/24/20 (afternoon)
Chart 1 from 4/23/20- this high still holding: Chart 2 (below) from 4/24/20 (afternoon)
Thursday, April 23, 2020
Projected Higher Retrace Targets
See latest post
EOD: Move down from 2836.75 looks to have vector support for the down trend to continue.
Update 1:54pm EST. If 2836.75 does not get taken out by the close / next session, it looks very much like that is it for the retrace. Vector gaps all closed and wave 5/e = 1.6 x wave 1/a (measured up from 4/d low).
VXX (volatility) has filled it's gap lower and measured waves up looks to be nearing completion on ES.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
EOD: Move down from 2836.75 looks to have vector support for the down trend to continue.
Update 1:54pm EST. If 2836.75 does not get taken out by the close / next session, it looks very much like that is it for the retrace. Vector gaps all closed and wave 5/e = 1.6 x wave 1/a (measured up from 4/d low).
VXX (volatility) has filled it's gap lower and measured waves up looks to be nearing completion on ES.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Retrace Up Projections- Downside Target Hit
See latest post
Update 1:53pmEST. While the vectors are printing support of the continuation in the down trend to resume eventually, the vector values are not supporting a violent move. As a result, it will not be unexpected to see overlapping retracements as opposed to the violent fast moves down seen previously. That could change but more likely will continue for a while until negativity gets replaced by complacency,
ES 2716 price zone target projection from yesterday was hit and a bounce has begun. Vectors are holding up overnight supporting the downside trend in market continuation (so far)- let's see what today's session prints. VXX (volatility) printing higher and has not yet challenged it's lows.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update 1:53pmEST. While the vectors are printing support of the continuation in the down trend to resume eventually, the vector values are not supporting a violent move. As a result, it will not be unexpected to see overlapping retracements as opposed to the violent fast moves down seen previously. That could change but more likely will continue for a while until negativity gets replaced by complacency,
ES 2716 price zone target projection from yesterday was hit and a bounce has begun. Vectors are holding up overnight supporting the downside trend in market continuation (so far)- let's see what today's session prints. VXX (volatility) printing higher and has not yet challenged it's lows.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
Target Projections- Breakdown Potential
See latest post
Initial leg down from a probable top may not have completed quite yet. A deep retrace from a lower target would most likely be the confirming signal but it is not required. Any higher high might produce an alternate scenario but vectors are not supporting that just yet. Waiting game again. Volatility derivative VXX is gaining strength after breaking up. That does not look promising for ES to create higher highs in the near-term. If that did occur- it is anticipated that VXX would not take out it's lows.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Initial leg down from a probable top may not have completed quite yet. A deep retrace from a lower target would most likely be the confirming signal but it is not required. Any higher high might produce an alternate scenario but vectors are not supporting that just yet. Waiting game again. Volatility derivative VXX is gaining strength after breaking up. That does not look promising for ES to create higher highs in the near-term. If that did occur- it is anticipated that VXX would not take out it's lows.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Monday, April 20, 2020
Projection Targets- Volatility Likely Bottomed- Too Much Negativity
See latest post
EOD: ES filled it's gap down and didn't look back. It also overlapped the pre-top high from 4/14/20. Very likely done- volatility derivative VXX broke out upwards above 4/16/20 previous high. If there is any more ES upside left, it probably will not be much.
Update: 11:20am EST. Looks to be going higher somewhere- perhaps a cash high equal to existing after-hours: ES 2885 zone? Or possibly today's gap down fill.
Not expecting much while everybody is anticipating another leg down. Probably have to wait until everyone gets comfortable. It isn't required of course so will have to see. Either that or it just bounces in a range for a while until the majority believes it won't happen.
EOD: ES filled it's gap down and didn't look back. It also overlapped the pre-top high from 4/14/20. Very likely done- volatility derivative VXX broke out upwards above 4/16/20 previous high. If there is any more ES upside left, it probably will not be much.
Update: 11:20am EST. Looks to be going higher somewhere- perhaps a cash high equal to existing after-hours: ES 2885 zone? Or possibly today's gap down fill.
Not expecting much while everybody is anticipating another leg down. Probably have to wait until everyone gets comfortable. It isn't required of course so will have to see. Either that or it just bounces in a range for a while until the majority believes it won't happen.
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Friday, April 17, 2020
Projection Targets- Pre-Top Move Completed
EOD; There are higher cash targets but there are also more than a few completions right here so need to look for downside follow-through. There may or may not be more in the breadth tank as it gave all it had this week but only created a lot of price overlaps along with the price advancements
Update 3:00pm EST. ES cash may need to hit the ES overnight high prices so will need to be patient.
Update 1:00pm EST. Could be setting up for another shot at a higher price target (intra-day, lower high or higher high). Negative divergences continue to print. (day seven of a steady negative trend-line divergence on ES- 4hr chart MACD). Not counting on it though-alignments still favoring a top to occur somewhere close in this price zone.
Update 12:00pm EST. Looks to be on shaky ground as in a topping formation but could still print higher as vectors are not decisive yet. Pressure is building as in a serious move when it does break.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/15/20-pre-top)
Update 3:00pm EST. ES cash may need to hit the ES overnight high prices so will need to be patient.
Update 1:00pm EST. Could be setting up for another shot at a higher price target (intra-day, lower high or higher high). Negative divergences continue to print. (day seven of a steady negative trend-line divergence on ES- 4hr chart MACD). Not counting on it though-alignments still favoring a top to occur somewhere close in this price zone.
Update 12:00pm EST. Looks to be on shaky ground as in a topping formation but could still print higher as vectors are not decisive yet. Pressure is building as in a serious move when it does break.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/15/20-pre-top)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Projection Target Hit/Top Flag Forming
EOD: So far on track to flag a top but need more time to let the retrace play out fully. There are lower gaps in VXX (volatility derivative) that would look better if filled so we will have to see. Vectors are still holding required optimal positions.
Confirmation Signal to follow as long as the retrace does not take out the highs. All vectors are correctly aligned. Alternate scenario: highs could get taken out which would define the current move as being a pre-top move especially since vectors are aligned correctly for either scenario. Pre-top moves are closely connected to the full top move when it arrives and are usually within a narrow percentage of the previous high prices.
Everything is aligned correctly so far for either scenario to complete soon.
This may be a tad premature- want to mention one essential comment going forward regarding new lows below 3/23 if that occurs. There is the likelihood of a huge sling-shot move up to potential new all-time highs similar to the alignment that created the rapid drop on 2/20/20. That has been discussed before so it will become clearer as we move forward from here but it's a worth-while thought in and amongst all the gloom and doom that's pervading.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/15/20-pending)
Confirmation Signal to follow as long as the retrace does not take out the highs. All vectors are correctly aligned. Alternate scenario: highs could get taken out which would define the current move as being a pre-top move especially since vectors are aligned correctly for either scenario. Pre-top moves are closely connected to the full top move when it arrives and are usually within a narrow percentage of the previous high prices.
Everything is aligned correctly so far for either scenario to complete soon.
This may be a tad premature- want to mention one essential comment going forward regarding new lows below 3/23 if that occurs. There is the likelihood of a huge sling-shot move up to potential new all-time highs similar to the alignment that created the rapid drop on 2/20/20. That has been discussed before so it will become clearer as we move forward from here but it's a worth-while thought in and amongst all the gloom and doom that's pervading.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/15/20-pending)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Target Projection- Top Flag Watch Activated
EOD: Targets are showing a hit at 2846.00. Now looking for downside follow-through with a retrace that does not take out 2846.25 or whatever final high prints overnight/tomorrow. Vectors are arriving at optimum positions so expectation is high for a top to flag.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Thursday, April 9, 2020
ES Reaching For Target Zone 2
EOD: The following micr-count might give us a marginally higher target or there could be a bust straight up through to new levels higher up still. We wouldn't normally try a count this tight but it could fit what we are seeing with the remaining vector alignments that need to fully bottom out first and are mostly very close so giving it a shot:
Update: 3:37pm EST Vectors that showed some intention have pretty much faded at this point with the exception of VXX which is still holding it's low price from 4/7/20 so either more time/and or price highs are required (if the VXX continues to hold it's low) or perhaps we need to blow through everything to set uo a new top price somewhere in the next few weeks.
Update: 3:08pm EST. So far the new high has not produced supporting vectors with any optimal value so still could go anywhere with prices. Could be that new highs are still required to set up a top that the vectors can signal against. They are still in a preliminary position where the values could become optimal but the timing window is closing for that to happen today. There will be an update if that occurs.
Update: 12:35pm EST. If ES 2803.5 high holds, a minor pullback may begin. All vectors are on board the small pullback move possibility but they are not at optimum values which is why only a potential 'minor' signal. Could also be a 'pre-top' signal indicating the next high (2809.5? area) , if it occurs, might produce a better result. VXX low still holding so far.
Original post: Volatility derivative VXX may have bottomed on 4/7/20 (which is also a 'Pi' function date**). So we will see if there is a reaction at zone 2 markers. If VXX takes out it's low 40.78 from 4/7/20 that would be significant otherwise there could be a pullback in ES of some degree soon.
**4/7/20 (15x pi days fm 2/20/20 -top)
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
Update: 3:37pm EST Vectors that showed some intention have pretty much faded at this point with the exception of VXX which is still holding it's low price from 4/7/20 so either more time/and or price highs are required (if the VXX continues to hold it's low) or perhaps we need to blow through everything to set uo a new top price somewhere in the next few weeks.
Update: 3:08pm EST. So far the new high has not produced supporting vectors with any optimal value so still could go anywhere with prices. Could be that new highs are still required to set up a top that the vectors can signal against. They are still in a preliminary position where the values could become optimal but the timing window is closing for that to happen today. There will be an update if that occurs.
Update: 12:35pm EST. If ES 2803.5 high holds, a minor pullback may begin. All vectors are on board the small pullback move possibility but they are not at optimum values which is why only a potential 'minor' signal. Could also be a 'pre-top' signal indicating the next high (2809.5? area) , if it occurs, might produce a better result. VXX low still holding so far.
Original post: Volatility derivative VXX may have bottomed on 4/7/20 (which is also a 'Pi' function date**). So we will see if there is a reaction at zone 2 markers. If VXX takes out it's low 40.78 from 4/7/20 that would be significant otherwise there could be a pullback in ES of some degree soon.
**4/7/20 (15x pi days fm 2/20/20 -top)
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
Possible ES Flag Forming
See post 4/9/20
EOD: Vectors missed the chance to synchronize so prices could move either direction until they become more cohesive. VXX may be needing a gap fill overhead which could indicate a minor pullback at some point prior to new market highs.
Vectors are displaying medium strength somewhat staggered moves which could be indicating a delayed scenario as in a flag or other structure.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
EOD: Vectors missed the chance to synchronize so prices could move either direction until they become more cohesive. VXX may be needing a gap fill overhead which could indicate a minor pullback at some point prior to new market highs.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
Our favorite go-to site: McVerry Report
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