Sunday, April 5, 2020

Is This Position On The Wrong Side Of The Market?

See latest post

Update: 4/6/20 ES is filling a gap and should be completing it's mission soon. Meanwhile-

 "European stocks jump at the open, rising nearly 2% on data showing slowing virus cases." - Another attempt to connect the pandemic to the market as a cause. As tempting as it seems there is in all probability a sequential occurrence in the cycle between the two. Unfortunately, it is only temporary.

We wish it wasn't but the two have been following each other sequentially and surprisingly close together. We had wondered if this might happen that the two cycles would be in phase (Pandemic cycle and market cycle). Often there is a phase shift (one precedes the other etc) between any type of cycles so this phase coincidence will definitely support the 'apparent' connection. So, if this is true, we can make the next leap and say that if the market continues to print new lows going forward as per our projection forecast- will the number of cases experience one more surge? It is not a pleasant thing to ponder but we need to look at it from a cyclical perspective as unwelcome a thought as that is. We try to bring forward the true nature of the evidence in the data. We are unable to completely understand the science that connects the two- only to report on it. Martin Armstrong has done amazing work in this area and even projected the possibility that this would likely occur this year as early as the middle of 2019.



Original post:
See detailed price projection at end of week (a little more upside to come or a lower volatility print in VXX would also work).

If you arrived here from the McVerry report - click the link to see all critical current and recent VectorSpike posts including this one in chronological order.

JP Morgan strategists recently wrote an article "Bearish bets have evaporated.." and ".. the worst of the sell off from retail investors is over";

..and still another climbs on the raging bull: "Bank of America says the lows for stock prices and corporate bonds are in."

Maybe it's just us and everyone else has a more accurate analysis. We shall see.

VectorSpike says- let's compare that general outlook with the following chart:
Sorry JP and BOA, looks like only bearish leanings here-
See Second Chart down.

A) Signal line below previous
B) 50ma still pointing down
C) MACD print crossed signal line down
D) Missing component- price drop.
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/202/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20) , {3/23/20}
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