ES 4400+ Was Always The Target Zone

Lower Chart is reprint of chart posted on 3/12/21 [note- ES 4417 fib. ext. on both charts]. Likely ES 4417 is the pivot high target zone. Final high will be above that in that case.

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Explosive Breadth Moves Are Likely Telegraphing An Unstable Situation

See morning chart for 7/13/21

Upper Chart: The evidence supporting the unusual nature of this market keeps adding up... still no top but better buckle up!

Top left inset is the NYAD weekly MACD [lower half] with the SP-500 [upper half]. The MACD plot is looking like huge 'square' waves which indicates sudden, extreme directional changes with little to no transition periods. This is erratic behavior extending over several weeks and looks like it's threatening to create even more volatility going forward. A pattern in weekly breadth this volatile hasn't been seen since 2007 top and it created a large and extended pivot prior to the decline proper.

The potential for the market to take-off to the upside in sustained weekly/monthly moves similar to previous periods this year seems much less a possibility because several primary vectors we watch have hit and penetrated target zones projected from the lows around 3/23/20 so the analysis based on that evidence is that we are seeing instability and not a fresh attack up. There are new highs yet to come but they may be short-lived. The red signal line on the NYAD MACD is still in positive territory but declining. When [and if] it goes below zero on the weekly print. that is our next heads-up moment.

Lower Chart: ARMS Index speculative study: Since 1990 evidence is that major tops have occurred when weekly 200ma is below 1.161. Current level is 1.084 therefore a major top at this level cannot be ruled out and is a higher than average possibility going forward when added to all the other evidence that has been presented recently. The idea of a head-and-shoulders forming [currently- right-shoulder] is tempting.

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Volatile Moves Were Always Coming As These Alignments Demonstrate

7/9/2021 5am EST: Some short-term declining breadth relief was expected today. Let's see how it closes week ending.

Corrective pullbacks. Who knew?

Simple Answer Weekly Breadth [NYAD] MACD:
Expected next upper target zone- ES 4391.50 [current price @3:25pm- ES 4306]

Note: the 'typical' scale of price moves is most likely about to get larger in both directions. Breadth looks oversold so may improve tomorrow [less negative]

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Volatility Derivatives Setting Up

10:58am EST:  Breadth is looking oversold but may continue to print a weekly negative histo bar by tomorrow which, if it holds, will print a fourth negative bar on the NYAD MACD. A consecutive four negative weekly histo bars demonstrates downward pressure increasing that will eventually break new highs and produce a market decline. Another one or two will likely do it as far as a pivot decline to commence. A terminal top is highly likely subsequent to a pivot move especially if the NYAD red signal line breaks below zero on the weekly chart. Could well be a relatively slow grind to ES 4391.50 target zone.

Comment: more than a few 'bullish' comments beginning to take hold in the blogs. Optimism typically increases into tops not necessarily supported by good evidence so let's see how that works out.

Original post:
VXX bounced from the intermediate target zone of 28.08 [28.07 actual low]. This action is likely preliminary to the pivot high about to arrive when VXX takes out it's recent lows. Could be more than a few whipsaws in this market first.

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Topping Fractal From 2000 Using Weekly Vix

Overnight 7/8/2021: High so far is ES 4352.25. ES 4353.25 was a target from 6/1/2021 for a wave 'v' high so let's see if that begins a pivot process. [right hand side square box on chart below]

Intra-day update: watching now for this to develop:


Original post:
As readers of this blog will be aware, VectorSpike is not shy when it comes to plugging in evidence-based scenarios. Going with the VIX weekly chart pattern from 2000, an estimated similar stream of VIX aligned waves may have brought us to the current 'e' location. [yellow square border, next chart, bottom right]. This is of course a very highly speculative projection and the unfolding pattern going forward could potentially vary or be much more complex given the advanced nature of the market since the wave 1 up in the DOW Industrials from 1929. The Dow has now penetrated the significant 86 yr cycle period as can be seen from the confirmed alignment dates at the bottom of next chart. SVXY is shown on the inset at the bottom as some time alignments are very significant with regard to volatility derivative price moves as well as to the market price moves. Note the first dramatic drop in SVXY occurred almost exactly on 1929.75 + 86 yrs = 2015.75!. Subsequent moves have aligned with  *2.15 yr increments since then. Pure chance? Seems unlikely with this much evidence now in the rear view mirror. *[(86 /10) / 4 = 2.15]

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Extension Target Zone Penetrated + 3rd Weekly Negative Breadth Bar Print

This pattern of three consecutive deep weekly histo bars on the NYAD MACD together with new highs and an arrival at a target zone is likely to create a situation quite soon as these divergences tend to resolve with an implied decline or pivot [decline/new high- fourth down bar]. Since the $VIX has printed new lows, some additional time may be required until we see it elevate as the market hits greater highs. Still no top but may get hairy. ES 4349.25 is the actual [local leg] target zone [classic extension w5 = Lw1 x 2.2381]

ES 4374 is the next 'long' target zone up from wave '4' low [w5 = Lw1 x 2.618].

Alternate count for the lower degree waves inside higher degree wave '5' are 'small A-B-C / alt. small 1-2-3'  up to 4349.25 zone or higher and a small wave '4' pullback expected after that. 

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Finally Clawing To 'v' Target [Pivot Zone]

This was about as hard a sub-leg that is printing compared to the sprint up since the low zone on 3/23/2020. Weekly breadth is not impressive. Still no top. Another week of lower breadth after this one [if it does not reverse up hard] may create concern for long holders.

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