EOD: Retraced almost the whole of the diagonal 'a' through 'e' which is also a likely bounce zone. An index-based turn signal did print on SPXU so hard to say with this amount of whipsaw and no volatility turn signal yet so better to wait this out until date targets get closer. There could be a deeper test to come because of the index-based turn signal down. Not much of a reaction in the put-call ratio so far. ES 4464 and 4447 are lower fib extensions. The triangle has probably failed the retest and a low could print tomorrow.
3:44pm EST: Looks like the triangle center is being tested. That is also a typical spot for a bounce if that's what is occurring. Anything else should give us a turn signal at today's close or soon.
original post-
A typical triangle breakout retest occurs as the break up hits 0.62+/- fib high of the triangle widest hi/lo vector (vector is light blue) and then tries to get back into the triangle. If it is any more than that, a turn signal most likely needs to print soon and it will fail the retest of the triangle but that happens very rarely. The retest could continue into tomorrow at the fib target shown [4503 zone]. In addition, the diagonal up 'a' through 'e' typically pulls back almost 76% before continuing up. So the two structures are sharing similarities in pullback amplitudes.
The date targets for next week to print a bigger event are still valid until then. The 2.5:1 UPRO/SVXY intra-day advancing ratio mentioned yesterday was a short term 'heads-up' that the market was stretched. There was also lots of cooing over the Dow advancing in the media. Today/tomorrow is likely a clearing out of those complacencies.
All this action is likely to cause immunity to cries of 'the sky is falling' so that the actual higher degree decline will also be bought creating more targets for the squeeze inventory. Unfortunate for many caught on that side.
Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
3:44pm EST: Looks like the triangle center is being tested. That is also a typical spot for a bounce if that's what is occurring. Anything else should give us a turn signal at today's close or soon.
original post-
A typical triangle breakout retest occurs as the break up hits 0.62+/- fib high of the triangle widest hi/lo vector (vector is light blue) and then tries to get back into the triangle. If it is any more than that, a turn signal most likely needs to print soon and it will fail the retest of the triangle but that happens very rarely. The retest could continue into tomorrow at the fib target shown [4503 zone]. In addition, the diagonal up 'a' through 'e' typically pulls back almost 76% before continuing up. So the two structures are sharing similarities in pullback amplitudes.
The date targets for next week to print a bigger event are still valid until then. The 2.5:1 UPRO/SVXY intra-day advancing ratio mentioned yesterday was a short term 'heads-up' that the market was stretched. There was also lots of cooing over the Dow advancing in the media. Today/tomorrow is likely a clearing out of those complacencies.
All this action is likely to cause immunity to cries of 'the sky is falling' so that the actual higher degree decline will also be bought creating more targets for the squeeze inventory. Unfortunate for many caught on that side.
Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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