A lack of a volatility turn signal in the face of index turn signals looks like more diamond construction. A higher degree break lower could still happen but odds favor a volatility turn signal first. Perhaps another retrace attempt towards another volatility low. The width of the diamond looks like more is required if the apex just printed. Caution is urged especially if a volatility turn signal prints sooner rather than later.
If a high degree top is setting up, a span of 7.5 months is nominally how long the top developed in 2000. The current diamond structure span of about 3.5 months is on a par with a top at a little lower degree than 2000 of a total span say, of 5.5 months [terminating April '22] or 63% in now [close to a fib golden ratio value and an event printing coincident with that estimate].
Potentially a new leg up is starting with the break-up printing part of the new leg and a pullback to the previous existing trend line to base it at a higher Apex low. Meanwhile, index turn signals are driving what appears to be a whipsaw but technically, that does not seem to qualify now.
A potential 'event' date zone calculates to *2/14 and 2/21 - 2/22/22 whatever occurs, if anything. Put-call ratio finally reacted today at 1.12.
*Note- a 2/14 +/-1 event could already have occurred on Fri 2/11 [2/14-1day]. If not, that leaves Mon 2/14 or Tues 2/15 [+1] for the real primary event to occur, if it hasn't already done so.
An index or volatility turn signal [market up] will need to print to confirm that this recent decline has completed otherwise a new bottom needs to print or the structure is done and the terminal move is underway. As can be seen from the inset on the bottom chart, bullish volume vs volume during drops is still at a good level so far. The higher volume level overall also supports the criteria associated with a typical diamond structure. Succeeding higher degree tops are built on solid bullish momentum until the tipping point arrives.
Second chart down: Lots of options on the diamond where the 'X' could either be printing in the apex leg that has not yet bottomed or it is at alt.1 or alt.2. Data supports some more to go whichever option is trying to print. A volatility turn signal [market down] is the most likely terminal key at this point.
If a high degree top is setting up, a span of 7.5 months is nominally how long the top developed in 2000. The current diamond structure span of about 3.5 months is on a par with a top at a little lower degree than 2000 of a total span say, of 5.5 months [terminating April '22] or 63% in now [close to a fib golden ratio value and an event printing coincident with that estimate].
Potentially a new leg up is starting with the break-up printing part of the new leg and a pullback to the previous existing trend line to base it at a higher Apex low. Meanwhile, index turn signals are driving what appears to be a whipsaw but technically, that does not seem to qualify now.
A potential 'event' date zone calculates to *2/14 and 2/21 - 2/22/22 whatever occurs, if anything. Put-call ratio finally reacted today at 1.12.
*Note- a 2/14 +/-1 event could already have occurred on Fri 2/11 [2/14-1day]. If not, that leaves Mon 2/14 or Tues 2/15 [+1] for the real primary event to occur, if it hasn't already done so.
An index or volatility turn signal [market up] will need to print to confirm that this recent decline has completed otherwise a new bottom needs to print or the structure is done and the terminal move is underway. As can be seen from the inset on the bottom chart, bullish volume vs volume during drops is still at a good level so far. The higher volume level overall also supports the criteria associated with a typical diamond structure. Succeeding higher degree tops are built on solid bullish momentum until the tipping point arrives.
Second chart down: Lots of options on the diamond where the 'X' could either be printing in the apex leg that has not yet bottomed or it is at alt.1 or alt.2. Data supports some more to go whichever option is trying to print. A volatility turn signal [market down] is the most likely terminal key at this point.
Bottom chart strongly supports a low is close, whatever the state of the declining leg happens to be relative to the bigger structure.
Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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Chart notes- The decline from 'e' is overlapping a few points on the first low vs the third decline origin [4520]. The decline so far could be an 'a through e' down unless a higher degree decline is occurring and it's at '3' out of '4' down.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
Chart notes- The decline from 'e' is overlapping a few points on the first low vs the third decline origin [4520]. The decline so far could be an 'a through e' down unless a higher degree decline is occurring and it's at '3' out of '4' down.
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