Update 6/21/2021 regarding potential timing window: Already looking at comparisons with the top on 2007 and now the top on 2000 may present another timing option. In the past, the calendar time period using the Pi constant [3.1416] has provided clues to event time windows. The top in 2020 hit a volatility derivative bottom prior to the SP-500 top exactly to the day[s] on a very long term projection using * Pi yrs projection.
The date for the top in 2000 when the SP-500 began it's decline proper was 8/28/2000 [weekly chart]. If we take 8/28/2000 [2000.75] and add 5 x half-cycles (8.6 x 0.5 = 4.3yrs), it calculates to 2022.25 so this presents another possibility for an event. If valid, the event could be a top or a bottom in the Dow, SP-500 or a top / bottom in volatility or a derivative [VXX] so we will be keeping that timing window in mind as we approach that date. Looking at the posts where a projection was estimated at 4 to 6 months, this could fit well with a top say 3 or 4 months prior to that window. Also, it could have minimal or no relevance at the half-cycle Pi year increment.
* Pi constant= 3.1416 and Pi cycle yr calendar-days: (8.6 x 365) / 3.1416 = 1000 +/-. This whole round number for Pi years has proven significant as does the half cycle increment [4.3 yrs] on occasion.
see post for 6/21/2021 here
Original post-
Best estimates using current conditions can change if prices suddenly and dramatically lurch up or down. We will re-analyze if that occurs. A small correction is expected to happen in the coming weeks likely to take out lows below the bottom prices from the decline beginning on May 10 2021 but no major top is showing using standard signal markers yet.
Some chatter regarding extended P/E ratios, margin debt levels, 'crash talk', bitcoin correlation with the market - all of those tea leaf type readings most of which are accurately portrayed but do not tell you when that convergence has any meaning. Markets will stay leveraged [overbought. diverging etc] until that critical tipping point is hit. THAT is determined by market participation ONLY. in fact, all of this chatter is a great contrarian signal that the market is NOT DONE short term. Whatever 'term' one is looking at as far as a time window.
IF a major top [or series of tops] is building, we are inclined to look at events around 2007 at least as far as current conditions seem to be emulating. Readers of this blog will have seen all the lead up posts recently to describe in more detail how we got here in our estimation. For others, you can catch up on key prior posts shown lower down.
Market Breadth: [upper chart] Readers will be familiar with our continued references to advance-decline weekly charts simply because they historically have been a reliable benchmark for market potential price moves at critical points. Rough draft time estimate to a potential top from here = 4 months. Also- four total weekly [deep] histogram bars either intermittent or concurrent that also move the red signal line closer to zero, could put us into a pivot top zone.
Summation Index: [lower chart] An adjunct indicator to weekly breadth. Rough draft time estimate to a potential top from here = 6+ months.
It should also be noted that at the end of another 4 - 6 months, the chatter will likely not seem so impressive even though the leveraged nature of the market will likely be even greater. Top calling [crash talk] will probably have exhausted everybody.
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