Friday, January 22, 2021

Top Requires Weekly Breadth Decline(s)

EOD: Enthusiastic dip buyers may have saved the day. However, we got a second consecutive weekly negative print on the NYAD MACD CHART just not a negative signal (red) yet but it only printed +15 so there is room for the structure next week to make a third weekly negative print. Meanwhile, SP-500 new weekly highs are printing so it is definitely negatively diverging and has been since 11/30/20. Downside pressure continues to build but is not yet at optimum expected higher price or lower breadth levels. 

Is A-B-C up done? There was reaction at 3845 zone so we will have to see how that develops next week.


UPDATE: 12:52pm EST: VIX has closed it's opening gap.

Apparently. yesterday's VIX penetration lower occurred right at wave 'iii' shown. It was a signal for a minor pullback. It was also posted here as being part of the signal group required for a pending top event. We could be entering that final countdown. As posted, expectation is for this next medium term top to be a partial correction prior to the next ATH. Many will panic and call it the 'crash'. It may not be pretty but the vectors and long-term pattern looks much bigger and require objective focus and patience. Hopefully, the analysis here will help with that.


If there is a weekly breadth decline at close today, that will print TWO CONSECUTIVE NYAD MACD WEEKLY NEGATIVE PRINTS which could set it up nicely for a top during the next several sessions following. Today could also print the first negative weekly (red) signal print as it currently sits at zero so we shall see.

There could be an opening gap up in VIX that will require closing either today or in another session so that remains to be seen

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2 comments:

  1. What are the odds for a gap down on Monday?

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    Replies
    1. Varun: We have been seeing gaps in both directions in different places (VIX, SP-500) as is typical in an overlapping environment so difficult to call that one. Stuart

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