Long and Short of it - At Least For Today!

Update: 2:45pm EST: Looks very much like it is going for 'broke' at VXX 13.46 zone and potential UPRO 90.04 which would make sense if that zone is where an 'ALT W3' prints.

Update: 12:23pm EST:  One of these directions may produce a better signal at the next level up or down due to the nature of the leverage in UPRO: 

(Definitely closing in on VXX critical target zone 13.46. Expect twist and turns on the way. Stay focused.)

Crash calls abounding... we see corrective waves. Is this analysis way off? An update will be forthcoming when that pattern seems more clearly substantiated. Hang tight.

It is still the most likely scenario according to the vectors that a wave 4 down (brown border- bottom chart, alt position) may print when VXX hits 13.46 zone at a market peak (expanded wave 3 top?) and subsequently declines to a wave 4 low proper. There will be swings prior but that remains the primary focus for now. Waiting for an expanded wave 3 top to print. Otherwise, we are in a long term wave 5 up but that seems less likely at the moment.

Note that actual wave labels are less critical than credible wave extensions and vector analysis since it appears that expanding waves are printing at a large degree. Lots of focus and reliable analysis is very critical at the moment.

pattern techniques by reputable bloggers
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Revised Outlook: Medium Degree Wave 4 Down Likely

Update: 3/11/21 11:16am EST: Watching price level ES 3957 which gives us a cash level close to the no cash high at 3960 zone from 2/15/21. Still expecting a wave 4 to be printing as an expanding triangle so new highs in cash can be expected.

original post-
After reviewing all the main indexes, the proposed projection is that we have indeed most likely hit a major overhead resistance in ES futures and very possibly UPRO. The overlapping action looks like a wave 4 down underway at a medium degree that has yet to conclude.  A wave 5? (of alt 3 top chart) up should trigger after that which takes VXX to it's expected target giving us a medium top.

Top chart: Very Long Term: shows a potential resistance extension at 4030 price zone using white arrow wave lengths. A smaller, medium term wave 3 could now pull back to 3650 zone for a strike at the wave 5 (of alt 3?) high above 4030. See lower chart. Could also be a large monthly terminating megaphone with much higher highs to come. Potential for a pullback into the 2700 zone is possible first (megaphone center) after VXX 13.46 hits.

Labels may be off but basic price level intent may well be the correct analysis based on vector patterns.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Potential Attenuated Wave ' V ' At Close

Update 9:58am EST: Looks like a new small leg up started at ES 3856.25.
ES 3927 that was a target from yesterday looks to be the intended print so far that could give a full optimum wave ' V ' at a higher degree. VXX  took out it's prior low and is now printing a positive divergence on daily indicators albeit a small one so we will have to see.

Ultimately we are watching for VXX to hit the low zone at 14.36 as a top zone in the market whatever SP-500 does to get there.

Pre-open 3/10/21: Tiny 5-waves down to 3856.25 and 62% retrace to 3883.25. Technically still in a small ' v ' up until takes out ES 3850.25 (small ' iv '). An aside note: VIX  may have printed a leading expanding diagonal and almost fully retraced by 1pm yesterday where it filled it's lower take-off gap.

Looked like a struggle to get to 3901.25 exactly as VIX closed a low gap and bounced (temporarily or more?). VXX stopped short of it's prior low. VXX indicators still above lows.

Wave length ' iv - v ' [yellow border labels] was optimal based on length wave ' i '  ( ' i ' x 1.815 ) but was less than maximum target length ' ii - iii ' which accounts for the attenuation. Small ' iv - v ' today extended to make the less than maximum target on the next degree higher - could indicate possible weakness short-term or more.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Stuck In The Muddle

Whichever hits first will most likely create a reversal.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Repor

Vix Gap Up Pre-Open

EOD: UPRO closed 1% below it's 50 ma.

VIX structure looks like it is about to proceed upwards after the current overnight gap closes. '10/8' in the comment at top is an error- should read '3/8'.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Repor

Reaction At A Lower Trigger Or More Up to Come

A reaction fractionally very close to the ES price point where SVXY and VXX both stalled for several weeks on 12/9/20 could be expected as a 'reset' that pulled UPRO back from it's over-extended high was needed. UPRO has now taken out it's daily 50ma by a good amount and ended the week 0.7% above it which does leave room for more down. UPRO's total drop of 17% from it's top now straddles the 50ma about evenly. As we noted in an earlier post, UPRO hit a very significant high recently which most often leads to a large market corrective.

The technicals look as if it needs more time but less certain at this point which probably was the intention as oversold conditions in the market were persisting and now UPRO may need to 'oversell' further into a positive divergence so the wave 'C' down can print near ES 3654 followed by a large retrace up which fits the projection to begin the main decline proper from higher up when VXX hits it's low target. Increasing pierced levels of UPRO's 50 ma could be significant. 

Also note that as UPRO pulled back (and then re-elevated some) VXX remained in a small-ish range and still has room to go up from here. It's daily indicators are holding onto an upturn. If we have missed the correct analysis, then that will become apparent sooner rather than later.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Repor

Daily Medium Term Targets On ES Futures- Bigger Moves Likely

EOD: Odd-looking overlapping structure. Could be close to completion. We will have to see what the next sessions bring us. Breadth closed on a slightly positive weekly red signal line on the NYAD MACD (+16). It is still lower than the peak on 1/4/21. If a new structure is underway, that will soon be apparent. No matter what- the VXX low target zone is still the one that we will ultimately key off. Currently that is 13.46. 

 Update 3:06pm EST: Looks like 5 waves up in the terminal leg of a small megaphone up targets 3851 - 3862. Counts as an "e' leg with the kick off 'a' leg starting yesterday afternoon. It could be part of a higher degree bearish megaphone in which this price target hits a center symmetry that may lead to a rejection at this zone (confirm next week).

Update 1;11pm EST: VIX looks like it could be about to hit a support trend line (3rd touch today).

Update 12:23pm EST: Price looks like it needs to eat up more time. Possibly into next week- week #7 of a negative NYAD MACD red signal(?) if that works out and potentially it will be in a precarious overall condition even though the red signal is at a shallow value so far. It is however, if nothing, very persistent. A support area at 3702 is not surprising given it's proximity to the price point in ES where SVXY stalled for several weeks (temporarily topped).

Sorry- Fed Watchers- this was always coming as can be seen from our recent posts. Sure, cycles can and do coincide/overlap but a news event is often only what was always being foretold by sturdy, proven market analysis. When 2B up happens just watch the relief and complacency return- "market shrugs it off", "it was over-rated" etc. Maybe that will be correct but statistical vector analysis may well proffer a different intent. We will see.

If the expectation for wave 1A down materializes, then this could resolve down with a very deep move after 2B up completes (or anything higher). Eventual downside could even challenge the 3/23/20 low but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet - that might be less likely if new all time highs print before the main descent starts later.

If we are currently in a wave 'iv' up, it could take a few sessions to resolve to fulfill alternation requirements with wave 'ii' that took a couple of days. Anything different will show itself soon enough.

VXX has prior gaps higher in the 17.21 zone. Prior gaps are often an attractant and we probably need to see candle bodies filling that area at least on an hourly basis. Not there yet (market needs to go lower with volatility going up short term).

Also note that we discuss UPRO (also SVXY, VXX) because it is one of the leveraged instruments and often accelerates beyond 'normal' market moves and as such, it can hit measured fib and or wave lengths that are ordered within it's own framework but are elevated (or attenuated going the other way) by an accelerated factor. Those price points more often than not are key signals for a reaction. It is necessary to understand how each of these instruments behave in order to get a fuller picture at extreme price points.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Repor