Action In A Wave 'iv' Bullish Strength 40% - Target Projection

2:02pm: VXX hit a fib target at 11.57 - 11.58 zone. Could be closing in on a trigger. Volatility has been headed down most of the last few hours along with the market declining and that most often results in volatility spiking and market retreating further to bring everything back into balance. We shall see.

12:23pm: Several path options are always available but best route now would be for a sustained move lower to develop reaching towards strength > 50% so that a failure parameter can print and a reversal up can commence. Either that or it just abandons the down moves and rears back up but we prefer to see a reversing signal from a low otherwise it may just expand the range up some more before heading back down. Currently there is little to no strength in either direction but bias is still down. Not sure if a right contracting triangle is trying to print. If so, that will likely help resolve direction going forward.

12:07pm: Market is having difficulty regaining bullish strength. Vectors lacking any real motive in either direction.

Close on 3/29 from 3/25 low fell to 40% cumulative bullish strength. No confirmed top and no intra-day failure vector parameters yet so potentially consolidating or in a fourth wave.

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Trending Pattern Building To A Target

Dow, SVXY, UPRO, ES futures, SP-500 hitting marginal new highs relative to each other over the last several sessions but not in the same session could be a domino topping action underway. As stated, a minor top is expected. Today's closing action could be an expanding wave 'iv' after a 'iii' hit 3/26. Cash high from 3/17 is holding but is being challenged. The cumulative strength on vector parameters has fallen daily from 91% - 53% - 40% (3/25 - 3/29 close) without an intra-day failing parameter (reversal down) nor a confirming top yet so evidence suggests an expanding wave 'iv' so far.

Note on the histo bar daily counts for #1 and #2 we had approx 6 and 11 days respectively before an accelerated move down. So far we are at daily count 13 for the third pattern if that is what it is developing and that would make sense from a combined total structure point of view involving '3' waves on the breadth patterns.

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Possible Wave Tops And Targets- Marginal Strength Signals Showing

3:40pm Could be an expanding wave 'iv' and now there is identifiable negative divergence on daily breadth showing especially if we close at a new cash high.

12:10pm: Acting like a wave 'iv' so far which might posit the alternate wav 'iii' (greyed out) is the preferred. Other vectors support the higher targets for wave 'v' so let's see how it closes.

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Needs More Stable Top Structure Build

EOD: Looks like the construction line upper targets are where the market did go. Not sure yet about the strength to follow through by a lot more though. Certainly could print a higher number as SP-500 still has a first draft target at 4029 zone which is 1.3 % higher.

12:02 pm Instability in vectors is still elevated but not at extremes so far today (inversion condition) so prices keep plodding along. Inversion conditions occurred at blue arrows on 3/20 and 3/24 for a few hours prior to the slap down for example.

11:11 am: 3927.50 was a tiny 'iii' up and the vectors are unstable so far today so we shall see if that smooths out or if it is simply a tiny wave 'iv' behavior before the upper target 'v' prints. Bets are off regarding upper targets printing without more stability showing or if they do print with instability, it likely will produce a slap down.

The potential for a gap fill is still on the table.

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Could Be Headed For Cash Gap

4:45PM: Daily breadth NYAD MACD looks ready to create a bounce with a lower closing price below 3/24 close.

3:54pm: Looking a lot like an expanding triangle as ES approaches what would be the center zone of a megaphone structure. Either that or it goes straight through to new highs. However, the lower cash gap in ES still beckons and VIX volatility -VVIX  looks to be completing a reset lower in preparation for a move higher in consort with VIX moving higher and the market heading lower perhaps to finally fill the cash gap. That opportunity still exists as long as the 'b' wave (yellow border) high holds. ES high zone 4018 - 4068 remain first draft medium term targets based on current wave patterns at a larger degree subject to updates as live structures dictate. 

2:51pm: Looks like VVIX (volatility of 'volatility index VIX') needed to fill a lower gap which it may now be in the process of doing. Once that has completed, VVIX will be free to move up so the attempt to fill the cash gap shown in ES may resume at that time. Perhaps tomorrow. Currently. bullish strength is well balanced and optimum so we shall have to see. Also ES is approaching the internal triangle lower trend line so watching that for a reaction.

Volatility derivatives are not indicating a bigger issue than a tiny pullback in pre-open. Let's see if that follows into the close.

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Potential Right Triangle Closing On Volatility Target

AFTER HOURS: Looks like headed down short-term if prices fail to retake the right triangle:

EOD: Lower cash closing vs 3/19 closing price so slight positive divergence on breadth could create a bounce soon. Still looking for a low in VXX to create a continuing minor corrective in the market.

2:42pm: Whipsaws- but up trend signal still intact from low on 3/19 to 3/24 at 66/50 (vectors) over that period. Still overheated so waiting for it to consolidate or reset at a higher low.

1:07pm: The prices were definitely overheated and looks like it needs to correct back a bit. Most likely, it will not take out the low. We are looking at a right contracting triangle potential. Stand by for updates later.

There may be some work to be done in order to get to the volatility target before a small downward continuation continues. Price advance today is a little overheated so it may need to settle down before the low in volatility is hit.

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Likely Pull Back Then Sling Shot Higher

Still Bullish after likely pull back possibly to cash gap or higher.

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