1/18/22 11:00am EST: Breadth is oversold so likely a short-term whipsaw again. Sentiment may improve via whipsaw boredom and might create it's own sense of complacency as these drag on inside a range. This could work to set up a minor decline / pivot to begin.
1/18/22 Pre-open: Looks like ES is hitting the proposed 'diamond' trend lines and now going for a re-test of the lower [beyond half-way in] pattern point. This is more likely since there was no turn signal down confirming a more serious decline which has been the case for every mini-leg inside the 'diamond' so far. If it is a more reliable decline beginning, a turn signal will most likely print soon probably after a retrace up since this is a range decline so far. A wavelength target date for tomorrow was projected but sometimes, it prints on target date +1 or occasionally [to a lesser extent] +2, so a retrace up may fit that scenario.
Original post-
The blurring is starting to develop more focus as the long-term wavelength targets arrive from 2009 lows. Best current estimate based on macros in wavelengths, the summation index and breadth data is anywhere from late March/April through June '22 [latest]. These target dates should degrade the current worry sufficiently for a top to print correctly. This is an absolute necessity for terminal tops to print.
Note the weekly breadth MACD over a 2-3 year span is very similar in 2000 compared to the 2022 current set up. There are other mitigating levels on these chart comparisons that could radically alter the expected pattern going forward, positively or negatively. No two tops are identical but the potential for alternation between a high degree 2000 top and a 2022 top [-if it develops as expected] also would fit.
A review of a medium term event target from a wavelength that initiated on [Aug '19] is calculated for 1/19/22 +/- 1 so perhaps that will create a high [lower or higher] for an index or an instrument / derivative / volatility. There is also a cluster of previously calculated targets spanning 1/22 - 1/29 so perhaps there will be some interesting developments soon with various instruments setting up minor tops throughout this window. A primary turn signal, if it prints, should confirm any significant date in this window if the market is to decline prior to a terminal top- [a decline often referenced here as a 'pivot' event]
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
1/18/22 Pre-open: Looks like ES is hitting the proposed 'diamond' trend lines and now going for a re-test of the lower [beyond half-way in] pattern point. This is more likely since there was no turn signal down confirming a more serious decline which has been the case for every mini-leg inside the 'diamond' so far. If it is a more reliable decline beginning, a turn signal will most likely print soon probably after a retrace up since this is a range decline so far. A wavelength target date for tomorrow was projected but sometimes, it prints on target date +1 or occasionally [to a lesser extent] +2, so a retrace up may fit that scenario.
Original post-
The blurring is starting to develop more focus as the long-term wavelength targets arrive from 2009 lows. Best current estimate based on macros in wavelengths, the summation index and breadth data is anywhere from late March/April through June '22 [latest]. These target dates should degrade the current worry sufficiently for a top to print correctly. This is an absolute necessity for terminal tops to print.
Note the weekly breadth MACD over a 2-3 year span is very similar in 2000 compared to the 2022 current set up. There are other mitigating levels on these chart comparisons that could radically alter the expected pattern going forward, positively or negatively. No two tops are identical but the potential for alternation between a high degree 2000 top and a 2022 top [-if it develops as expected] also would fit.
A review of a medium term event target from a wavelength that initiated on [Aug '19] is calculated for 1/19/22 +/- 1 so perhaps that will create a high [lower or higher] for an index or an instrument / derivative / volatility. There is also a cluster of previously calculated targets spanning 1/22 - 1/29 so perhaps there will be some interesting developments soon with various instruments setting up minor tops throughout this window. A primary turn signal, if it prints, should confirm any significant date in this window if the market is to decline prior to a terminal top- [a decline often referenced here as a 'pivot' event]
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
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Right now breath is negative and growth stocks are hit hard, due to which sentiment is negative. Broader indexes are hold by FAANG + MSFT + NVDA & JPM, BRK.B, UNH (plus few more). Recently, Amazon, FB, NVDA, Netflix and JPM got hit, so I was thinking we could be in pivot followed by terminal top shortly.
ReplyDeleteWith your recent analysis, for sure terminal top can drag for few months, only part I was wondering how can sentiment recover. On top of that even yields are spiking.
Varun, excellent observations. The potential for a terminal top to commence sooner than expected is always a possibility. The sentiment around 11/4/21 was pretty much 75% positive [Dow high] and that high has not yet been breached. However- an updated wavelength analysis has strong indications for highs to print on 1/19/22 and 3/11/22 which are targets for a very high confidence primary wave which so far has hit several unambiguous targets in succession. Sentiment can move in strange ways either using time and / or price combined with positive news cycles. Watching for turn signals to guide it now so those will be posted after the close when applicable.Stuart.
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