Retrace On It's Way- Target Projections

EOD: SP-500 and [UPRO] continuation signals printed at the close so still looks good for a retrace target to hit 2/3/22 +/-1.

A 'momentum turn signal' [34 / 37-53optimal] printed on 1/28/22 at the close- less than a full on turn signal so expectation is for the retrace to possibly complete by 2/3/22 +/-1. ES 4643 is the upper 76% target zone. After that- more down to a higher or lower low. Odds favor lower or double-bottom.

Current status: ES may retest the potential upper trend line of the contracting triangle where it is attempting to break out.

Make sure to see post: Tops-you can't make this up.

Note that target date highs could be filled by- index highs, inverse volatility highs or derivative instrument opposite pair highs/lows- separately or all together. Whichever way it divides [rotates] the higher degree trend is the driving engine.
Current examples- SVXY high 11/4/21 holding, ES high 1/5/22 holding [both high target dates +/-1 were published in advance and were filled at that time significantly by an index or instrument]

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)

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Similar At Tops - You Can't Make This Stuff Up

More similarities with a major top..

Critical take-away is that an index turn signal just ahead of a double-digit decline in the SP-500 with no adjacent volatility turn signal printing is rare and here it is at the 2022 short term top. The parallel with the Jan 2000 pre-top which also had an index turn signal on 1/18/2000 is very noteworthy. Historical data from 2000 is no longer available to determine whether a volatility turn signal printed then or not. The importance of the volatility turn signal is that it would normally print at higher degree [terminal] tops. However- expect a terminal top to be approaching as it did in Sept 2000 when another index turn signal printed on 9/5/2000 and likely, a volatility turn signal printed thereabout resulting in a high degree decline next.

Note the 8.6 yr time cycle [derived from the geometry 'Pi' constant applied to wave cycles via time interval rotations]. Here it is at the x 2.5 time factor from Jan 2000 until now. Currently also at the 2.15 yr mark since 2020 top and quarter cycles are often significant.

[A search on the internet will produce many good descriptions and examples for the 8.6 yr cycle. It is very significant especially at the x quarter time intervals and here we have 10 of them back-to-back. Round number factors have been shown to have importance in this 'Pi' derived time process.]

Current ES status: retrace target date is 2/3/22 +/- 1 then more decline likely.

Note that target date highs could be filled by- index highs, inverse volatility highs or derivative instrument opposite pair highs/lows- separately or all together. Whichever way it divides [rotates] the higher degree trend is the driving engine.
Current examples- SVXY high 11/4/21 holding, ES high 1/5/22 holding [both high target dates +/-1 were published in advance and were filled at that time significantly by an index or instrument]

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)

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Current Set Up Fits Expectations Moving Higher Short-Term

EOD: A 'momentum' size turn signal, value 34% printed at the close slightly less than a full-on turn signal [range 37% - 53% optimal]. This value does fit the surrounding criteria and supports an expected short term retrace up. The indicator 'ind.vspike' did turn up +25%, a target area of +37% is expected at full retrace around 2/3/22 so progress is good. After a retrace, a further decline to a low is anticipated. Once the low completes, likely heading for the diamond upper trend line [or more].

original post-
A revised date for a retrace high is now 2/3/22 +/- 1. Presuming a 3-day [3 session] climb to reach it or thereabouts, that would fit timing-wise for a move up to begin perhaps on 1/31/22 - 2/1/22 so the lack of a break up or a low retest/new low currently would also fit that expectation. From the retrace, a likely move lower will begin possibly to a new low or higher low for the apex leg bottom of the diamond structure still printing. Structures of this type are rarely better than 67% reliable so the geometrical symmetry that is holding so far is both interesting and surprising. Morphs in any structure are always a possibility.

Indicators short-term do seem to be trying to pause/move up modestly which also would fit. A positive divergence on breadth histo bars is developing below it's zero datum which is severely attenuated on the daily and weekly level overall but may be setting up a positively diverging move since 12/1/21 on the weekly chart which likely still permits short term retraces and a new low prior to a higher move up in the market [towards a terminal top].

Note that target date highs could be filled by- index highs, inverse volatility highs or derivative instrument opposite pair highs/lows- separately or sometimes all coming together. Whichever way it divides [rotates] or not, the higher degree trend remains all-encompassing.
Current examples- SVXY high 11/4/21 holding, ES high 1/5/22 holding [both high target dates +/-1 were published in advance and were filled by various instruments]

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High Targets Are Likely Back On The Menu [Maybe- See Updated Chart]

Pre-Open 1/28/22: Reviewing the target date for a retrace high at 2/3/22 +/- 1 and presuming a 3-day [3 session] climb to reach it or thereabouts, that would fit timing-wise for a move up to begin perhaps on 1/31/22 - 2/1/22 so the lack of a break up currently would fit that expectation. Currently could be waiting on a 4 - 5 day half-span sub-wave to trough and pass zero and head to a peak which appears to approximately fit the 4 daily candles printing at the lows. Maybe.

Indicators short-term do seem to be trying to pause/move up modestly which also would fit. A positive divergence on breadth histo bars is developing below it's zero datum which is severely attenuated on the daily and weekly level overall but may be setting up a positively diverging move since 12/1/21 on the weekly chart which likely still permits short term retraces and a new low prior to a higher move up in the market [towards a terminal top].

EOD: The indicator 'ind.vspike' has turned up modestly so that is a good sign short-term and favors the retrace scenario. In that case, a retrace rise-and-drop is increasingly likely. If a retrace is successful, a calculated target date of 2/3/22 for a retrace high is a potential and does fit with the existing date targets +/- 1. Target dates will be updated if the elapsed time/price set up appears to conflict.

3:33pm EST: A continuing retrace up is looking to be more on the cards. A preliminary calculation at target dates for a final bottom in the declining leg from the Apex of the diamond is indicating more time to go overall. A retrace up and drop back down has room to fit into that layout time-wise. Whether a new Apex leg low prints later or a higher low are both possible given current data.

12:37pm EST: Special indicator 'ind.vspike' is having difficulties turning up. See updated chart at bottom. If unsuccessful then likely lower lows now or continue to retest the lows. High dates are not valid to actually go higher in the range very far until this indicator reverses.

11:10am EST: Still early in the day but a promising start with indicators inverse VIX and 'ind.vspike' both turning up. The close will be needed to confirm the reversal being on tap for today. Breadth began mildly oversold then overbought but has since subdued to a manageable 'elevated' so far.

Original post:
Diamond structure continues to look very much the potential so far [it is past half-way in unless a new longer Apex leg develops]. ES target potential goes up to 4710.75 using the applied [cyan] arrow fib extensions. If ES clears 4453.00, it's likely on it's way.

Note that target date highs could be filled by- index highs, inverse volatility highs or derivative instrument opposite pair highs/lows- separately or sometimes all coming together. Whichever way it divides [rotates] or not, the higher degree trend remains all-encompassing.
Current examples- SVXY high 11/4/21 holding, ES high 1/5/22 holding [both calculated target dates +/-1 were published in advance but not instrument specific]

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Retrace Target Then More Down Likely

The retrace is struggling to gain traction and it did succeed at a decent sized retrace in volatility derivatives [-62%]. The original target was for either side of 1/29/22 and this could still produce an event moving lower as two other targets have initiated continuing down moves as noted previously. A special indicator [ind.vspike] has dropped over 200% signaling 'high' target dates are more likely to create a downward continuation so that would fit.

IF a retrace is forthcoming -given the delay, a better time wave calculation is for 2/9/22 which is interesting as a very long term target from 2009 wave has been on the radar for several weeks for 2/14/22. Until there is a sustainable retrace, the date estimates for a target are very temporary. The diamond structure is still in play given the compliant symmetry so far that has printed. A continuation of that structure would necessitate lower highs yet to come below the current all-time high unless it breaks up [fakes up, perhaps] to a new apex or more [does not seem likely at the moment]. In the lower chart, 'new-month money' could be the spur to a target date high 2/1/22+ [but only if the indicator 'ind.vspike' turns up].

If you missed it, see prior post referencing the wave from 1995.

Upper chart is a new updated version [shows inverse vix at bottom]. Note that 2/14/22 is a local and a long-term target so the credibility goes up. Lower chart is original post.

Note that some target date highs could refer to index highs, inverse volatility highs or derivative opposite pair highs/lows separately. Similarly- all of these could coincide on occasion. However it divides, the trend is usually all-encompassing.

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Wavelength Study - 1995 Origin Full Wave Hits November 2021

An expanded wavelength search to help confirm the current frequency targets for 2021 - 2022 has a full-span target date coinciding with current target highs 11/4/21 - 11/16/21 that are holding for volatility lows [and associated instrument inverse volatility highs]. The local time target calculation stretches to 3/27/22 or more which could produce an index high / inverse VIX high / inverse volatility instrument high in that window - However it looks like the high for SVXY / inverse VIX high could be in. This is a second exploratory study- a primary study using different indicators is also targeting the same dates long term / medium term and short term [local]. Upper chart: SP-500. Lower chart: SVXY - and there is the 11/16/21 top and decline event.

Current live charts: watching for turn signals but potential for another visit lower has favorable odds after this retrace prints. 1/29/22 is a frequency target calendar date [sessions 1/28 - 1/31] which certainly could be the retrace high time frame. An ES marginally lower low could still print on the diamond lower trend line and maintain the symmetry relationship in the structure. Either way, another low is likely.

A critical volatility derived indicator [in combination with the 11/4/21 - 11/16/21 long term frequency target] is not yet bullish so the local time frequency target dates are for lower highs and until that indicator reverses, that will likely remain the case. It is currently down over 200% from those highs so it will take some major leverage to reverse it. If a sufficient reversal does occur, it will be reported in a post.

Terminal top outlook: A volatility turn signal [market down] is likely required to print at a terminal high degree top since that has occurred at all major tops in the last few decades. Most likely the market is printing a double digit [pivot or prequel] decline currently as happened in 2000 [similar decline %] with a market turn signal down [upro on 1/13/22] but without a volatility turn signal which may come later [late March/April '22]. An all-time higher inverse volatility top is not required for a volatility turn signal to print so the current highs 11/4 - 11/16/21 could remain unchallenged until then.

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Potential Larger Diamond Apex Leg Just Printed

Whether a diamond top or some other structure- no matter. Looks like a terminal top is closing in.

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Potential Minimum Breakdown Target Approaching

11:17am EST: SP-500 dropped 13.7% between 3/24/2000 - 4/10/2000 [3 week decline] but the real top arrived at a slightly lower high 9/1/2000 when chronic decline occurred [another lower high also occurred at 11/3/2000] so the opportunities for the high degree top to make it's arrival still exists. There is a price extension resistance target at ES 4267.50 zone; ES 4199 is the next- a 12.5% total drop very similar to 2000 pre-top numbers and also approaching a 3-week decline [or more].

Breadth is oversold. Sustainable high degree declines often drop on modest reductions in breadth relatively speaking in order for the acceleration towards lower prices to continue often until breadth begins to diverge positively.

Original post:
A UPRO turn signal printed on 1/13/22 and a minimum target from the ES diamond is likely just below the current position near 4320. Likely an inverse VIX larger diamond [or similar top structure] is also printing [see bottom chart]. A frequency wavelength target date of 3/11/22 or more would fit that scenario. Note that a wavelength target date can refer to either a high event in a main index [with turn signals demonstrated in leveraged UPRO/SPXU or similar instruments] or a high event in volatility [with turn signals demonstrated in leveraged SVXY/VXX]. The main index and volatility instrument events can occur simultaneously or leading/lagging each other. 

The reports of 'brutal' selling, whilst of concern, are entirely what might be expected when approaching a higher degree top. Right on time they've gone from virus-->inflation-->fed speak-->and now Ukraine. A whirling dervish of faux reasoning but no real data.

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Market Index Turn Signal Printed But No Volatility Turn Signal

UPRO is likely on it's way to tracking the volatility instruments more correctly. It [and by default, market indexes] needed to 'catch up' with volatility increases that began on 11/4/21. A turn signal in UPRO has been observed from 1/13/22. However, a volatility turn signal has not yet printed which is most often required to demonstrate that a large degree terminal top has begun. Turn signals on market related instruments [UPRO] are much less common so the timing of the appearance of this one in the higher degree wavelength date zone could be significant.

The current decline in the market could continue [as far as a time target] until 1/29/22 or thereabouts [with retraces on the way] based on how observed frequencies have printed since 1/5 [high] and 1/19 [lower high].

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Nested Structure Encloses The Projected Targets

10:36am:EST: UPRO is overlapping SVXY an appropriate amount. Readers of this blog will understand that to be a significant factor for a reliable sling shot higher to occur next. This could set up a break of the structure or more towards a terminal top that was anticipated to be a necessary pre-requisite. A turn signal up will likely support a strike much higher. Anything less could still create a move to the top of the structure with some limitations for going much higher. The alternate is a continuing decline so a turn signal up is likely very much needed now. ES is above the pre-open lows and Fridays often bring out the buyers so the close will give us a clue. Next week should create a directional move if it is pending.

A prior gap in SVXY will be a likely target [< 54.58]. So far UPRO is tracking SVXY down nicely. Breadth may be catching a break. All these developments are fitting expectations of the larger view.

Original post-
Preamble: Note that patterns of this type succeed only in 67% on average so not a high reliability structure. However, the ultimate intent looks to be reliable. A terminal top is likely setting up. A surprise slingshot to the upside perhaps breaking the structure would fit in order to quench the fear first.

Finally, there is a better perspective in focus: a whipsaw ES futures 'diamond' printing inside it's parent VIX structure no less. The strategic location fits inside the latter half of the parent structure. Watching the VIX parent structure for confirmation moving forward. Some confusion is definitely eliminated looking at this set up. [two bottom charts]

It does appear that the 1/19/22 wavelength target date did in actuality create another [lower] high. The 'event' was notably a break out of the diamond pattern. The wavelength was spot on the timing with that event. 

Note that the lower VIX chart is an inverse plot of the VIX keeping it more in parallel with the market turns pictorially for an easier read going forward.

Technical note: the modest turn signal that printed on 11/10/21 [adjacent to the 11/4/21 wavelength target] appears at the potential apex of the parent structure. Similarly two weekly turn signals appeared at the commencement of the VIX structure. Monthly breadth has also noticeably declined steadily in that time frame.

Extra commentary:
Headline: Why are crypto coins falling All of A Sudden? -Amazingly they neglected to spot that the correlation with market expectations is very close. No surprise if you are looking at the right data. Note the wavelength overlay beginning in March/'18 and ending at 3/14/22. Not indicated is the lower wavelength between Dec '18 and July '21 which also correlate with declines. Apparently El Salvador is planning funding the whole country with them- not just a huge red flag but one that's visible from another galaxy. Like any speculative trade, the more that get onboard, the closer to correction [and even failure- think XIV 2018 destruction]. Not to mention tulip bulb mania/bubble/collapse.

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New Leg Inside The Pattern Likely Beginning

Target wavelength date for 1/19/22 inverted creating a low instead of a high at just about the right spot for a pattern leg up [or more] to get underway. This can occur when volatility is increasing and the arms index is hitting new large percentage moves lower in an extended period [this one began 1/5/22 which was the corresponding target date high]. Chart is a reprint from 1/19/22 pre-open. Today's pre-open puts ES above the lower trend line so far.

The summation index is beginning to initiate moves lower in the indicators starting yesterday. Particularly, the stochastic has moved lower to value 83 from upper 90's. This area may provide support for the indicators to recover or pause while the leg up in market prices completes.

If a turn signal up in the market prints, that would be significant so watching for either an up or down flag after each daily close. The last turn signal of any merit was at the Sept '21 lows. None of any significant size or placement inside expanded criteria have printed since then. Whipsaws may continue.

UPRO is keeping up locally relative to SVXY but missed a minimum overlap of 50% at the larger decline low relative to SVXY on 12/3/21. That magnitude of parallel move in UPRO is most often required to sling shot the market significantly higher so that puts a limit on the market making any large moves above the current range at least in certain instruments.

The pattern could keep printing until mid-March '22 getting narrower each week or there could be an event at the end of January/Feb as target dates are aligning in that time window also. Likely those will be pattern highs inside the diamond. A high degree terminal event is increasingly a possibility as patterns and frequencies are reminiscent of the 2000 high 

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Diamond Pattern Continues To Confirm

12:16pm EST: The projected target date 1/19/22 was correct except for the fact that the frequency initiated at an inversion point which was just spotted so we got a low target date rather than a high. This may also imply that negative momentum is taking hold in the market as this type of inversion is unusual and could be significant moving forward. - Otherwise resuming normal service and watching other target dates coming up.

Original post-
The high of the potential diamond pattern was called on this post back on 12/31/21. So far it is continuing to print expectations. It should be noted that patterns of this type are only 67% reliable on average. The chances that this one will break up cannot be dismissed even if only partially which is why turn signals are critical at junctures. The market will continue to blind side until a signal prints. Odds for a decline eventually are the most favorable when considering the indicator patterns and wavelength targets. A terminal top is not expected to print until later but the set-up currently could surprise and shake more than a few out of position when it does break.

Also note that each of these declining legs is creating a net attrition in the weekly breadth numbers which is not being reversed on the retrace up legs [beginning around 11/4/21 - which is the date of the DOW recent high].

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News Cycle Distractions - ES Likely Testing / Printing New Pattern Lows

The diamond pattern is still viable until it isn't. A short term minor decline that breaks the range could transpire after a hit on a target date and a turn signal prints. Target date range is 1/22/22 - 1/29/22 +/- [with an option for 1/19/22 +/- 1] - the holiday interruption in the sessions vs calendar dates may add a day or two. Different indexes / instruments may print highs prior to a market decline inside this date range. Dow has already hit a local high on wavelength date 11/4/21.

Chart is a reprint from 1/12/22 and essentially remains intact so far.

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How A Terminal Top Could Develop

1/18/22 11:00am EST: Breadth is oversold so likely a short-term whipsaw again. Sentiment may improve via whipsaw boredom and might create it's own sense of complacency as these drag on inside a range. This could work to set up a minor decline /  pivot to begin.

1/18/22 Pre-open: Looks like ES is hitting the proposed 'diamond' trend lines and now going for a re-test of the lower [beyond half-way in] pattern point. This is more likely since there was no turn signal down confirming a more serious decline which has been the case for every mini-leg inside the 'diamond' so far. If it is a more reliable decline beginning, a turn signal will most likely print soon probably after a retrace up since this is a range decline so far. A wavelength target date for tomorrow was projected but sometimes, it prints on target date +1 or occasionally [to a lesser extent] +2, so a retrace up may fit that scenario. 

Original post-
The blurring is starting to develop more focus as the long-term wavelength targets arrive from 2009 lows. Best current estimate based on macros in wavelengths, the summation index and breadth data is anywhere from late March/April through June '22 [latest]. These target dates should degrade the current worry sufficiently for a top to print correctly. This is an absolute necessity for terminal tops to print.

Note the weekly breadth MACD over a 2-3 year span is very similar in 2000 compared to the 2022 current set up. There are other mitigating levels on these chart comparisons that could radically alter the expected pattern going forward, positively or negatively. No two tops are identical but the potential for alternation between a high degree 2000 top and a 2022 top [-if it develops as expected] also would fit.

A review of a medium term event target from a wavelength that initiated on [Aug '19] is calculated for 1/19/22 +/- 1 so perhaps that will create a high [lower or higher] for an index or an instrument / derivative / volatility. There is also a cluster of previously calculated  targets spanning 1/22 - 1/29 so perhaps there will be some interesting developments soon with various instruments setting up minor tops throughout this window. A primary turn signal, if it prints, should confirm any significant date in this window if the market is to decline prior to a terminal top- [a decline often referenced here as a 'pivot' event]

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Dow Showing Reaction From A Wavelength Arrival Date

EOD: Most likely more whipsaws while breadth and summation index unwind towards the finale dates.

Original post-
Macros and micros seem to be aligning: The Dow so far has hit a high on [1/5/22] which was an expected short-term wavelength arrival date - see bottom chart on this post on 12/31/21

36,338 monthly closing high on the Dow could be a target. A monthly closing high above that could still be below the 1/5/22 daily [36,952] high.

If expectations manifest, the to and fro in the current set up will wear most media pundits out and quite possibly replace a slight negative mood with a more positive 'consolidation' attitude- only then can any real action commence one way or the other. 

Next expected wavelength arrival date window is 1/22 - 1/29/22 [or closest trading sessions to these dates]. Market highs should be expected [lower or higher] followed by possible declines as volatility moves up from the lows. Volatility instrument VIX has not taken out it's lows from June '21 which looks like a pivot occurred in that indicator.

Note on the upper chart, if the projection fits correctly with no more large price advances, it helps solve the apparent debate and confusion over wave labels from the 2009 lows. Also, if you missed it, see prior post [pattern update- passing halfway point].

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ES Pattern Update - Passing The Half Way Point

Not necessarily married to specific structures as they are reliable about 67% of the time. However, there seems to be credit attached to this one given the background macros.

Commentary- there seems to be confusion in the blog sphere. Hardly a surprise given the potential pattern showing so far. By the time it gets done, most will have given up guessing and not trust a final signal when it does print- a perfect set up to wash out as many traders as possible. An even better set up would be a break up out of the 'diamond' to confound the pattern-spotters- however, unless the macro frequency decides to extend at the short-term or even jump it's long-term origin [the first a possibility, the second less likely], a break-up may not have enough staying power but it should remain a consideration. 

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Two Flags And Counting...

10:00am EST: A second leg up has commenced from the low that printed after the decline from the 12/5/21 high. No detected turn signal has printed so the market is still under the influence of the Sept lows turn signal. No change to the outlook until the 11/4/21 high is taken out in SVXY.

Originsal post-
Wherever prices land [indexes, volatility instruments etc.] - all indicators are lining up for the arrival of a wavelength at the end of Jan / - Feb '22 to create an event. SVXY may already have topped for this market exactly on the long term projected date of 11/4/21 [or be very close to it].

notably-
i) since Feb' 21, SVXY has struck into new high territory 4-7 weeks [tops] from a prior high. Currently it exceeds 9 weeks and still no new highs.

ii) summation index [daily] is in a topping set-up and looking to roll over very close to the anticipated date time window of late Jan with a lower MACD peak potentially than November [when the 11/4/21 long-term wave high printed].

iii] not only has UPRO not declined from the November high to create a persistent sling-shot much higher for the market overall, it is making highs relatively higher than SVXY likely signaling euphoria and most likely creating the opposing side of a negative divergence generally. Conversely, if it has created a positive divergence, then a strike above the range will be apparent when and if that happens but that seems increasingly lower on the odds given the current background macros. 

iv] ES futures is continuing to linger around 12/23/21 prices.

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Next Targets In Focus

11:08am EST: Some negativity might be expected for today according to the internal waves on the retrace up. Once we clear today, a more positive [or less negative] aspect should take hold. A weekly negative print today will however go towards creating breadth attrition for a stronger decline later on at the target dates.

original post-
Next best estimate for a high is the window enclosing: 1/22 - 1/25 - 1/29/22 [use the +/- 1 closest actual session dates]. Expectation is that breadth and summation index will have declined sufficiently to print a turn down signal in the market [volatility turns up]. This is a preliminary draft estimate but does fit required positions expected later on. Time is likely running out from the 2009 [low] wave. There are always more time and price extensions to consider but the data is not favoring that just yet. A break out of range now will require an updated analysis.

Note the 50ma in the chart pinching towards the 200ma after a strong width printed in August '21. July '21 printed two large weekly momentum turn signals that seemed to kick off the roll-over move. 

As always- very little or nothing to do with virus developments, economic report numbers, Fed speak etc, etc. Everything to do with price and time waves first and foremost. These drag everything else along with them like the wake behind a mega-sized freighter. Belief in the power of humans over cycles fails. Success has a better chance when disseminating the real evidence correctly.

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Two Frequency Highs Have Now Printed

Possibly an extended time delay may be on tap so that breadth can hit lower numbers and fear can dissipate. A larger degree roll-over on indicators is now required since the time limit from 2009 is expiring and highs could well be in place.

The alternate is that UPRO declines sufficient vs SVXY to create a bounce large enough to challenge current highs. The decline from 11/4/21 failed to take UPRO down far enough to reset it.

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