Friday, May 27, 2022

Turnip Mania Hits The Skids

Sorry for all the 'investors' that are getting beaten down but the signs were written long ago about timing any mania. At least Tulips had flowers to look at and Beanie Babies had cute furry critters. Cryptos seem to grow under ground in an 'electric-energy mine' but have only dirt that holds them together. Big surprise if and when any of them go to zero.
 
As Follows- [note the 'english logic' -sounding explanations]:

"The Luna cryptocurrency is relaunching on a new blockchain, two weeks after playing a role in the collapse of the Terra blockchain.

The original Terra blockchain had two tokens, luna and stablecoin terraUSD (UST). Luna played a part in pegging UST to the US Dollar, but when UST lost its 1:1 pegging with the US fiat currency, the Terra algorithm began issuing more luna coins to rebalance the system. The hyperinflation caused luna to lose nearly all its value.

In what’s known as a ‘hard fork’, the new Terra chain will separate from the old Terra Classic chain. Terra’s native token will be luna, while Terra’s Classic’s will be luna classic.

Referred to as Terra 2.0 by the project’s creators, the new project will cast off the terraUSD (UST) stablecoin.

Previous luna and UST holders will receive new tokens via airdrop today (Friday 27 May). Those with more than 10,000 tokens will receive 30% now and the remaining 70% over two years to prevent another crash caused by sell-offs."

-Quote from Forbes Magazine. Can someone tell us what 'non-fungible' means from further down in this article? We are astounded by the incredulity of the speech grammar and made-up descriptors in attempts to give the crypto-verse real-world credibility [where many of us live]. The peddlers and promoters have made the biggest cash takings as always. Again. we sympathize with any and all caught up in the pursuit of profits without enough understanding of what they got into. Perhaps [like dot.com boom bust], a new and more meaningful product will be born later on from all the innovation the money infusion has begun.

From a year ago- [the picture below says it all with bitcoin prices at bottom of chart]- 'I got bit by bitcoin'- see article

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Thursday, March 17, 2022

News Of The Market's Demise Is Badly Timed

2:00pm EST: Chances are good that this next leg will expand the diamond as a leg did previously, confirming the structural construction as on-going: expanding up and out over the existing trend line and down to a new apex low. This next decline could be it for the apex if that's what it is. Daily inverse-VIX closings are still in a down trend and the vspike indicator is in a deeper down trend and showing a small turn down currently in the live market. Need to see how that closes today.

12:03pm EST: VIX 25.31 zone looks like a potential fib target - it's just a few percent lower down. UVXY is filling it's gap now and some overlap/delay could be expected just to make sure all the inventory is covered. Today is also day 8 in a 8-0-8 frequency. The target date has a +/- 1 tolerance so this estimate also includes tomorrow 3/18/22. UVXY now has an overlap fib ext. target at 16.31 zone a tiny percent lower beyond the gap.

original post:
Yes- there is most likely a decline to finish the structure but the likely slingshot back up will delight everyone. Longer term, either a megaphone or diamond is printing. The scale of it and long term wavelengths say much more time to go yet. Panics will be happening but they do not make for a long term top.

Live charts: short-term- a turn signal [market down] is expected in proximity to current price levels. Longer term megaphone or diamond is nowhere near completion. UVXY has replaced VXX in comparison usage as VXX no longer has issuance for new purchases and as such is not reliable. UVXY is an ETF as opposed to VXX which is an ETN. ETN's have intrinsic susceptibilities to shutting down occasionally and are generally regarded to be avoided. Specifically UVXY does not normally complete it's down legs with gaps open. Only occasionally will it make a terminal up move leaving a gap in it's wake. 

Commentary: praying the war cycle does not also have another down leg in it as sometimes there is conjunction between cycles. Please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Possible New Leg Down Setting Up

EOD: Diamond construction sloping trend line beckons and aligns with fib extension targets at ES 4371.5 / 4422.25 zones. Potential short term local '8-0-8' count tomorrow regarding a frequency count so could be getting close to a high printing at or just above the diamond construction trend line.

original post:
Probability that a new leg down may print soon better than 50% odds.


"World stocks recover on Ukraine talks, Fed hopes buoy U.S. yields" - sorry, we wish that were true but readers of this blog understand whipsaws do not define reliable structural patterns- wavelengths do and they are saying the market is well inside the end-game at a higher degree. Still lots of room for down moves and retraces up to keep everyone alert as is expected at larger degree tops.

If the potential leading diagonal down '1' thru '5' retraces 95% [ES June17 4316 zone], that would be important to note as it likely confirms another wave 1 down is in from 3/11/22. Regardless, a turn signal down soon has a total decline potential larger than the previous ones since 1/13/22.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Monday, March 14, 2022

New Analysis Showing Another Outcome

The previous assessment that a medium-term diamond top was printing is now being questioned. Rather than attempting to fit an appropriate structure, a new analysis looked deeper at wave lengths and frequencies that hold obvious merit. This is part of the on-going re-evaluations at the higher degrees especially when developments appear to be moving away from expected outcomes within certain time-frames.

Whatever the structure ends up being, wave alignments are signaling a potential earlier termination to events in the market at least in the medium term. The next expected decline is still anticipated after a turn signal [mkt down] prints. If no signal prints within the next several sessions then other routes will need to be looked at.

Note the last downward conjunction of the two frequencies shown was approx. mid-2017 which was only a few months prior to the catastrophic collapse in inverse VIX derivative 'XIV' which was destroyed at that time. Also note these are not random wavelengths but are based around the Pi constant which we have eluded to in prior posts as having historical proven significance in the market oscillations as well as it's obvious presence in time cycles in the physical world. This is always a best estimate based on observations, they do however align with other wavelength calculations all the way back to 1995.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Saturday, March 12, 2022

Likely Will Not See Anything Like This Again Soon- The Great Unwind

Precise, predictable symmetry is almost uncanny and has been ongoing since the end of Oct '21 almost like a draftsman's design. All trend lines holding precisely. The diamond is building like an architect designed it. Amazing. Still not sure how it is holding but here it is! Nothing to do with world events. This has been in process since end of October '21.

Bottom chart is from 3/2/22.

Live status: Three touches on the sloping trend [A]-#9-#12 could be it with a turn signal imminent. The v.spike indicator continues to plow lower. It has not mis-directed yet. Closing numbers said more down to continue. Also adding greater numbers to the count since this declining sub-leg began which will effectively create an even larger time span on the next move down compared to those already in. We shall have to see how much. Increasing possibility this next move will create an apex bottom to the diamond with a reaction back up towards the center of it by late '22.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.


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Friday, March 11, 2022

Even More On Target

EOD: Market hit a small oversold ratio which leaves room for another strike higher next week but it may not be much higher and the potential decline count is now approaching 15 +/- 1. Previous decline count potentials were '12' [1/13/22] and '9' [2/10/22] so this is looking higher degree. The alternate is that we keep going down without any more turn signals. That seems less likely - another possibility is that next week sees more down as the closing numbers are saying more of the same [down]. Then perhaps another attempt higher meanwhile adding more numbers to the count. Then comes the turn signal [market down] with an even larger time span on the decline. We shall have to see how much.

2:47pm EST:
 FORGET THE NEWS CYCLE AS FAR AS THE MARKET. We are all hoping for better news, of course but the market is fixed in frequency and wavelength and it is not saying 'go time' yet for moves higher [option for one more small move perhaps on Monday- and that would fit an even larger micro-count inside the decline]. Some inventory gaps are not yet completely filled and that would also fit with one more push up to finish the waves.

Witness the opening pop and drop that main stream media attributed to something 'said' by a foreign govt. leader. No, that's not it but there was a frequency alignment exactly at that time coinciding with a wavelength micro target. The market is not driven by news other than the occasional whipsaw. Nothing humans do or say changes the frequencies [as disturbing as that may seem to some of us, it is demonstrated time and again]

Original post:
Nothing fundamental has changed- still in the target zone and now closer to a couple of date frequencies that often are in proximity to a turning point. More days up were expected to increase the overall decline count when it arrives and to complete the associated indicator criteria. There is the option for one more strike higher after today's highs are hit but time is running out and the longer the retrace attempt, the more downside days will be added to undo all that inventory that's being bought.

Chart is from a couple of days back but only whipsaws since then and the pre-open print is still in the expected zone-anything much higher will be a bonus when it does let go. Inventory gaps are the attractant currently, once they are filled, there won't be much to hold it up. A turn signal down will be the cue. Week-ending often brings in short term buyers particularly around date frequencies when some optimism shows up.

Most likely- after this next low hits, a fairly decent-sized reaction back up to mid point on the diamond is expected going forward as a weekly positive divergence is developing on breadth. Once the mid-point +/- is attained later this year, could be some fireworks unless the structure morphs into something else prior to Sept '22. 

Mid '23 is also on the wavelength charts but not sure if that is a new ath or a lower high from a retrace attempt after the diamond lets go and hits it's downside targets.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Setting Up For The Next Leg Down

Odds favor the pullback developing a turn signal to move the market down.

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Saturday, March 5, 2022

Set Up Has Favorable Odds

3/7/22 11:09am EST: Cash needed to catch up with overnight futures lows. Price and volatility patterns both are developing the potential to print a turn signal [mkt down] soon.

original post:
Live Status: Odds favor one more leg down on the daily to expand the diamond as shown. A leg down of an expanding size will likely require either a volatility or an index turn signal in the coming sessions. Eventually, the market will not go gently into a 'medium term nap' - as compared to a high degree long term decline but, as indicated, the correction may prove to be quite large and contrast it from the 2020 decline.

Since economic drive / investment forces are now in what is known as a 'private wave' [which means that individual, group and corporate forces are beginning to outweigh government sponsored 'easing' and other inventions]- some historical seemingly 'normal' market behaviors will likely come under challenge so being even more on point analytically is required. The current stepping decline is a good example and very unusual since very few volatility turn signals have printed and volatility values have remained relatively attenuated. Hence, the impeccable 'diamond' symmetry.

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Sunday, February 27, 2022

Corrective Is The Near-Term Word / Updated Projections

9:46am EST: There is a 3-day positive divergence developing on inverse-VIX with today being day 4 if it continues. Upside is still limited based on the current set up but buyers are buoyed by the vacuum that's being filled above.

Original post-
Very little outside the time and amplitude waves / frequency cycles that drive celestial and earth-bound events matter inside the trading fraternity. Think of these 'cycles' as very reliable influences if that makes for better understanding and acceptance. It's not even a 'market' decision. We each make a choice in regard to buying and selling but only as a reaction to the master forces driving nature and human events. Understanding the barometers and thermometers that tell us what is likely happening with the weather inside is key. Even a country with the largest land-mass in the west or east has little to no effect on waves already set in place apart from short-term whipsaws. Stick with discerning the data. It's what we've got.

If the analysis is still on track, it looks like a structure is still in it's early stages and hasn't yet 'taken-off' to the downside or anywhere else really- whether a diamond is building or not. The next decline could give the structure a bottom [of an apex?]. Expectation is for this structure to get even larger. A terminal top may appear at or slightly above the all-time highs later in the year / early-mid '23?. That is, according to the wavelengths from pre-1995. There is no other magic [or sadly, invasion] involved.

What we've got right now is mostly air rushing back in to fill the vacuum left by the steady unwinding from big players. They aren't done yet in either direction.

A target high estimate date is for Friday 3/4/22 +/- 1. It could also be a low or an event. As it closes in, a better understanding will probably become clearer from VVIX movements at that time. Increasing VVIX will be a heads-up for a potential retrace top especially if an adjacent turn signal prints [market down] in either an index or a volatility instrument. The next potential high date window after that is 3/23/22 +/- 1.

Expect the news to change and be tied to market events as the week proceeds- apart from knee-jerk whipsaws, not much to write home about while trying very hard to draw that connection. You could be studying the waves from inside a cave with no news feed whatsoever and perform respectable analyses. There are also war cycles proceeding as separate entities although that is a horrible concept and sometimes they overlap with market cycles where the phases get close - peak to trough, peak to peak, other alignments at various degrees etc. This is often how the 'cause-effect' in the general consensus is created.

Technical comment: A potential fourth hard leg 'g' down is being assessed - [7-wave corrective a-b-c-d-e-f-g decline] OR: [readers will know we push the envelope out if data supports it even 50% = moving to 'b' or 'd' - 'd' may have the edge.]:

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Saturday, February 26, 2022

More Indicator Ammo - Could Be Huge

See latest post 2/28/22 Corrective is the word

2/27/22 8:32am EST:
 Just a quick heads-up on the move up that has occurred from the recent calculated mkt low / 4hr frequency count number [9+1] posted here: the very short-term dates 2/28 thru 3/2/22 +/-1 are potential event date zones so a pullback might fit either zone which do overlap each other given date tolerances. Lots of compacted date alignments are in focus reflecting the current volatility [mkt up or down]. In consideration of more downside pending according to current analysis, caution is advised on this retrace. More likely, a bit more time will be needed to create a meaningful position for any decline to begin, if that is the intent of the developing patterns.

Original post-
VVIX index or 'volatility of VIX' may at first seem redundant but when used in context with target estimates either dates or price levels, it can flag a strong response in proximity to those locations and also during those impulsive days. It acts almost like an accelerometer flagging sudden changes in positions- not usually a positive at extremes. See recent patterns. Not convinced that a terminal top has arrived yet but everything is looking like a **'medium'-sized generational top is about to print perhaps in the fall [early-mid '23?]. A high degree wave 3 top that possibly corrects moves up from the 2007/2008 high. The current moves are likely part of the unwinding of positions that leads towards that scenario. 

**'medium' as being considered relative to wave 5 being the end of a major up leg from a very deep starting position in the stock market wherever that may be [somewhere prior to 1995].

Looking at the very bottom chart note the lower panel SVXY daily / weekly, odds are that when that pops above it's current highs later on there will be a reckoning. That is typically how it has behaved at every degree level.

Live environment -
The short term leg decline count did conclude where expected albeit right up to the edge. There is a deficiency on the larger degree decline count which is why there seems to be more downside to complete it successfully. The depth can be estimated using fibonacci extensions.


Tech note: top target >= turn signal [mkt dn] date zones: Wed 3/9 - Sat 3/12/22 [+/-1, range: Tue 3/8 - Mon 3/14/22] OR SOONER..watch is active- index or volatility t.s.

See also higher degree pattern / likely unfolding diamond structure

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Thursday, February 24, 2022

More Downside Likely On Tap

The short term leg decline count did conclude where expected albeit right up to the edge. There is a deficiency on the larger degree decline count which is why there seems to be more downside to complete it successfully. The depth can be estimated using fibonacci extensions.

Tech note: top target >= turn signal [mkt dn] date zones: Wed 3/9 - Sat 3/12/22 [+/-1, range: Tue 3/8 - Mon 3/14/22] OR SOONER..watch is active- index or volatility t.s.

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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More Targets

2:14pm EST: A long-term and local time frame wavelength study is indicating the retrace could top around 3/4/22 +/- 1 [to be determined] date zone and continue to decline into 3/21/22 [to be determined by a wave count in the current down leg]. Turn signals may print at the end of this retrace leg up but this far down the structural decline may not print a clean market up signal until after the final bottom prints.

12:11pm EST: Double-checking the wavelength using the formula for a market low date is calculating to today's date +/-1 so that leaves tomorrow for a technical completion. A turn signal up in the market will be expected to follow soon after. Other critical indicators seem to be supporting. This leg is one of several in the sequence of the diamond and more structure is likely to print going forward. If a successful turn signal materializes, the next leg up could move towards the center zone of the diamond or more. A difficult turn is required to occur first. The threat of more downside is likely even with a retrace up.

The projection marches on unhindered. Technically it is now count #10 of 9 on the waves [ 9 +/- 1 tolerance = 10 still valid]. Signs of continuing into weekly closing through Friday. Breadth on weekly may be showing a leaning towards positive divergence as new low prices print. Likewise, inverse vix is showing a developing positive divergence. A turn signal [mkt up] somewhere near here is still expected. A longer time-frame through Sept '22 / mid-'23? is still in focus. Major tops take a very long time to unwind. Put-call ratio is not showing distress beyond an elevated status which is not a positive in this set-up yet.

See this post for original longer term projection regarding the diamond pattern. [lower chart on page that opens]

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Still No Turn Signal

The projection marches on unhindered. Technically it is now count #10 of 9 on the waves [ 9 +/- 1 tolerance = 10 still valid].

See this post for original longer term projection regarding the diamond pattern. [lower chart on page that opens]

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Close But Upside Not Verifying

EOD: A fibonacci full span has alignments printing at 0.0 / 0.380.76/ 1.0 [1.0=4178.50 is pending]. Count #9 of 9 looks to be printing after hours which technically makes it count #10 [#9 +1]. The fib span laid out has failed so the next plot lower is ES 4112 zone which is a vector extension wave 3 from the leg that commenced on 2/22.

12:00 PM EST:
Mid-session aligns with count #9 of 9 so there could be a reaction.

Upper 
Live chart: [ES] Option for one more down move to finish is 50%. No turn signal [market up] has printed yet. Maybe today. However, even a correct strength index/volatility turn signal is not yet sustainable for very long as the v.spike indicator is very low and not favorable for upside to continue for longer than short term at these levels. Also- the larger down leg frequency does not appear to have concluded [start 1/3/22 or sooner] at it's wavelength target date or decline count.

This could be in a stealth 3-leg decline with part [ii of iii] of the second leg about to print and the final third leg [parts] yet to come. Perhaps then a trip higher into Sept '22. It would certainly fit with the market situation at a larger degree akin to a major topping process. Mood and put-call suggests protracted correction prior to a major terminal top which could be a long way off but more relative short-term declines to come before a turn-around upwards of any real strength. Likely many big participants are unwinding overdue long term positions. 3/27/22 has been a long term target date zone for a while now and alignments could be heading towards fulfilling that event date- either a high/accelerated decline/low. Better focus will come as that date gets closer.

Bottom Chart: These target calculations will continue to be reviewed as advancing patterns develop. There is also a long term target into June '23 but it is unclear what that event might be [terminal/other high, or a low]. Several experienced analysts are projecting this year for the terminal top [including here] - contrarian thinking often wipes the table clean of all these ideas first so it may need to wait for 'everyone' to give up on that idea first whether Sep '22 or June '23.

"Excessive fear and paranoia tend to drive out useful judgement."

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Monday, February 21, 2022

Potential Big Picture Timeline / Targets

Latest deep review on all time scales [long. medium, local] looking at wavelength criteria / formulae is pointing towards Sept '22 for a final top to print. Coincident with that wavelength target date shows an alignment with the 8.6 yr cycle x 1.75 from 2007 top. Quarter cycles are also points where events can and do occur frequently so this conjunction should be noted. 

These target calculations will continue to be reviewed as advancing patterns develop.

Live chart: lower targets are in focus from 2/18 chart layout. Weekly breadth is showing a positive divergence so this next low in the target zone could create a large response upwards. The current diamond lower trend line is approaching and that also supports the bounce scenario. After the bounce, possibly a new apex low could print creating another take-off point for the expanding diamond structure. This is likely to go on for a while.

Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Thursday, February 17, 2022

ES About To Enter High Target Zone - Projection

EOD: Testing triangle / lows. No closing 'next-higher-degree leg' turn signal [mkt down] in either the index or volatility instruments yet but probably getting closer. Possible more down tomorrow according to closing signals: a-b-c down completed today.

10:35pm EST: About to test the triangle center at 'b'. Previous triangle backtest on 2/8/22 at 'b'  broke up and then failed. It then created this current triangle on 2/14/22. That particular date aligns with a frequency target so there could be a reaction [new leg starting up or turn signal market down]

Once the high target zone is entered, a turn signal [mkt down] is expected. In a second study, the potential for the diamond apex to print lower is being looked at. Evidence is definitely pointing to that as a possible scenario. [see bottom chart- looks a tad outrageous but that never stopped us before- more data is beginning to show up in favor]. Either way, the diamond looks to be holding it's trend lines.


Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Potential Directional Change Target Area

EOD: Nominal/marginal continuation [mkt up] signal printed at the close. The volatility instrument components were strongest but values for the index signals were less convincing so upside has limits. This fits with a nearing high target date referred to below.

3:29pm EST:
 A local session span frequency is targeting a high date for tomorrow 2/17/22H +/-1 [1/3/22H>1/26/22L<2/17/22LH]. This could stretch to Fri 2/18/22. A turn signal [mkt up/down] watch will be in effect. Odds favor a turn signal [mkt down] from high date frequency targets that confirm with new highs on or near the target date.

Update 2/16/22: The small continuation down attempt signal that printed on 2/14/22 could be a heads-up which has an equal chance of setting up a decline to a cash bottom in the SP-500 diamond print. That signal could begin to set up from a market high today, 2/16/22 [pre-open?] followed by a small decline / retrace up - then the signal [mkt down]- or yesterday's cash high was it and a signal [mkt down] prints at today's close or later. The timing 'looks' right as far as maintaining diamond structure symmetry. 

The recent thought was that the symmetry cannot continue to print so precisely and yet the market seems to be inclined towards that objective so far. Volatility over-reacted yesterday so a little retrace up in the market is on tap.

Less favorable odds:
Potential pullback [mkt lower] could set up a turn signal [mkt up] most likely from the gap close in the cash market. UPRO price 59.38 / 59.13 are fib extensions that would close it's gap.


Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Set Up To Initiate A Turn Signal- Projected Targets

Update 2/16/22: The alternate small continuation down attempt signal that printed on 2/14/22 [which is a target event date] could be a heads-up which has an equal chance of setting up a decline to a cash bottom in the SP-500 diamond print. That signal could begin to set up from a market high today, 2/16/22 followed by a small decline / retrace up - then the signal [mkt down].

Original post:
Potential pullback could set up a turn signal [mkt up] most likely from the gap close in the cash market. UPRO price 59.38 / 59.13 are fib extensions that would close it's gap.


Flags will be posted here when a top is detected. (1/25/202/20/20)
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