VectorSpike: December 2020

Thursday, December 31, 2020

Time And Price Confluence Projected High Still Holding

EOD: This setup may warrant short-term caution: Expectation is for a short-term pullback that takes the breadth MACD lower and then a large 'E' to print near 3800. VXX low from 12/9/20 is still intact and just successfully re-tested a prior gap at the 12/9 low so could be a move in volatility about to transpire sooner than later.

original post-
The post on 12/24/20 that reviewed a potential time and price confluence targeting 12/30/20 is still holding the high that was created on 12/29/20. There has not yet been any drama in price action but it may be a touchstone for some kind of structural action prior to a top printing. Breadth continues to print towards the negative direction but is not yet a negative signal on the weekly. A high above 3747.75 could still print short-term and remain in the time confluence window so we will have to see.

There is another time confluence potential on 2/7/20 but that is a small way out from here. The market may need time between now and then to establish a decent looking negative weekly MACD signal line.

Currently- Looks like ES futures is attacking the trend line and may need to hit 3747.75 or more in cash.

If the small megaphone shown prints an 'e' correctly, then there could be a modest decline of some sort inside it.

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

SP-500 Monthly Potential Projection

First target zone begins: 3740-3800 SP-500 cash (SP-500 3756.12 & ES 3747.75 needs to be taken out)
-click here to see previous post: hourly target hit on ES futures

This layout was posted previously as a potential path for the SP-500. The only item modified is the grey line pullback to the 2900 area as an alternate which may become the preferred zone later.

Next higher target zone begins: 4000 SP-500 cash during 2022.

NOTE THAT THIS IS ENTIRELY SPECULATIVE BASED ON CURRENT VECTOR PATTERNS AND NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING AS PATTERNS PROGRESS.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

3 Waves Up From 12/21/20 Low

Target zone begins: 3740 SP-500 cash (ES 3733.25 taken out)

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Time & Price Confluence Is Coming Up

Target zone begins: 3740 SP-500 cash (CAVEAT: ES 3733.25 HAS TO BE EXCEEDED FIRST)

SEE LOWEST CHART FOR RE-VISIT OF POTENTIAL LONG-TERM PROSPECTS.
It's entirely possible that point 'A' (purple bubble- pullback peak high on SVXY) has not yet been reached.

On occasion, the 'Pi time' signal gives a clue especially when adjacent to price and other vector targets. The end of the year certainly looks appealing as far as a target zone shown below. VXX still is showing very close to it's pegged value since 12/9/20 while VIX is still elevated on the weekly above it's lows so let's see how these conclude. There is a little room for VXX to hit close to it's current low. That would also fit a topping situation.

On the bottom chart there are also 30 Pi days from 'b' (9/24/20-'alt iv-d' upper chart) that targets the end of the year which is also a round, whole number lending more evidence to the 100 Pi days that arrives at 12/30/20 shown. That time and price zone needs careful watching.

Waiting For Megaphone To Conclude

Possible holiday hiatus- center of a megaphone typically will take at least as long as the prior move (6 trading days?) which could take us into the new year before anything significant moves again at least as far as hitting upper targets. We would not discount a volatile period anywhere right now but a top often ensues with new highs and optimism. We do have a wave 4/B top potentially already printed on SVXY volatility derivative (where VXX is also 'pegged') so caution is warranted as 'E' may not print if 'C' was the conclusion to the market up move.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

3 Waves Up On Small Leg- Nice Drop On VXX

Expectation was for VXX to strike towards it's lows which we had considered as being likely "pegged" from 12/9/20. ES futures needs more upside and the cash market has not hit the anticipated highs yet. Will that happen on this leg? No matter- sitting tight watching breadth deteriorate and waiting for targets to connect.

As we continue to state- a weekly negative breadth signal on the NYAD MACD is typically what we see at tops. Not yet there. It is not necessary in every case, but at higher degrees it is almost a required signal.

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Megaphone Under Construction- More Targets To Print

In a best-case topping scenario, we are watching to see if the breadth signal deteriorates prior to a top printing at 'E'. It is not required but would be high odds for being typical behavior.

We see more "sell the VIX" with the argument that it is up and should decline in the next month. Entirely a possibility except it is not risk-free and sometimes it leads the market and does not pull back enough to make a decent trade you can buy and hold at least for more than a week. That may be were we are headed. There is plenty of room for volatility to keep surprising. After this next 'top' occurs and bottoms, that should be better timing.

Monday, December 21, 2020

Timing On Prior Post May Have Hit This Mark

There still may be more to go if a megaphone is printing. It would fit but isn't required for a larger decline to begin. Certain vectors are already in place so we will have to see. Readers of this blog will have seen this type of move mentioned before (penultimate move in a megaphone) if that is what we have now. A weekly negative breadth signal may result from the current price correction which would fit our expectation for a more significant top to print, if that's what develops.

Also- as we have stated many times, news events do not drive the market, however- given the cyclical nature of everything in the created realm, there is often a coincidence within cycles to the point where it seems as if there has to be a connection and from the theories around cycles, a connection is often intrinsic just not in the form of a cause/effect/exact timing. We also have a conjunction of planets rotating in a path, a virus mutation surging, a peaking of financial markets- all within their own cycle behavior. Sometimes coinciding very closely. It is an amazing testament to the nature of the created universe. If you adhere to 'selectively created realm' as an alternate, the same theories apply. It's still physics by nature. Try to keep that in mind. We don't much use cycle timing even though it is remarkably accurate on occasion- there are better timing signals inside behavior vectors and breadth patterns.

For those who missed it- What Typically Occurs Near Tops?

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The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
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Sometimes big and small cycle periods arrive close together like (Jupiter and Saturn-today) and price peak on dates (11/9 - 12/10). Natural rhythm of everything working in it's own cycle. Think of a clock with big and small wheels. Sometimes it strikes the hour or the new year or just an odd minute. The Pi function is universally inclusive and the increment value of elapsed cycles can be very significant at varying degrees. It is not how we analyze the market but it is a useful marker to be aware of.

Saturday, December 19, 2020

What Typically Occurs Near Tops?

Statements like this appear a lot more- "SVXY: Short The VIX"- Could that be correct? Depending on your time-frame, perhaps that's one avenue but we would like to offer the caveat that if it isn't based on a reliable repeatable historical pattern, it may require extreme caution over anything more than a short term position.

We also see analysts calling signals out like 'cash on hand' and even connecting those to historical examples but the similarities are tentative at best. The point is though that as things like "Santa Rally" and complacency become the 'normal' bullish outlook, it may be correct but it may not be sustainable when viewed in a correct perspective. A distraction from reality is always a bad thing in trading and 'feelings' and 'good mood' is not how it all works. What is the market likely doing? Are we close to a trigger-point? How close?

We are fortunate enough to have many peaks in a four-year span. Let's take a look: see chart.

Note- VXX volatility derivative has hit a measured tier 2 price extension which could cause a reaction up for volatility pretty soon. Tier 2 is not as great as a tier 1 move which we expect much later next year or in 2022 which is why the red target box is not at a new low in the SP-500. We are still looking at 3.740 or more in cash SP-500 for the short-term top.

Friday, December 18, 2020

Still Following The Scripted Targets

EOD: Bounce up was expected. Main take-away is that we printed another daily negative (red) on breadth MACD and a lower weekly but no negative signal yet on weekly. It is not necessary for that to occur with the top we expect when it does arrive. Higher targets expected next week. VXX low is still holding and may have pegged or is very close.

Update 1:15pm EST. Looks like we are still on target- not at the top just yet but this deterioration in positive price and breadth action could be the harbinger of a subsequent decline that will scare most.

Update 11:55am EST.

..but could let go any time now.. *Breadth MACD (daily) continues it's downward trajectory (red signal line is diverging negatively from Oct 12 2020). SP-500 going higher and VXX may hold above/close to it's low from 12/9/20.

*We still do not have a negative signal on the weekly breadth but it may not be necessary in this case as we are not looking for a major top which is what we typically look for. In a similar historical situation in 2015 (Nov 23) where SVXY had not fully bottomed, breadth did not go negative on the weekly red signal line when it topped. The market recovered subsequently in that situation.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Upper Targets In Focus

Update: 12:50pm EST: Structurally, the waves are only marginally optimal. Many hours to go before the end of the week.

Update: 11:35am EST: Price and breadth have pulled back so far from the pre-opening candles. This was expected. Breadth attenuation needs to occur prior to printing a top at this level. Current daily breadth MACD signal is pushing a negative signal line (red). As we have stated, this next top should coincide with a wave 'iv-d' up on SVXY with a wave 'v-e' down subsequently stopping short of March 2020 general market lows.

The much larger overall market top could be anticipated later next year or possibly 2022 and then a wild ride to historic lows from there. That's the anticipated prognosis currently- subject to adjustments as moves develop. Buckle up.

original post
More attempts at the target zone. Cash resistance: ES 3730.00/3740.00 zone.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Rocking The Baby Until The Wheels Come Loose

EOD: Trying to complete a leg up one more time.. 'E' target up at 3730/3740 zone nominal. Most likely up/down market while breadth MACD is progressively deteriorating prior to a top hit.

original post:

Rocking the market until the breadth deteriorates enough for the wheels to come off tipping the baby out.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Monday, December 14, 2020

New Leg Up

EOD: not surprising - just a bunch whipsaws down from 'iii-c'. Probably start a new leg up somewhere. Not guaranteed of course.

Update 10:21am EST: ES 3697.75 aligns with +61.8% extension shown. Potential wave = 'iii-c'. Gap fill will most likely need to happen.

Note: '0-A' = ' B-C ' down.

Saturday, December 12, 2020

Changed Outlook Projections

After a detailed review of vector action over the last few weeks, we are now considering this top to have a chance of having printed (a volatility bottom) on Dec 9 at least as far as VXX which is now displaying hits at two degrees (medium and short terms) at the same price target (16.20 zone) that occurred on Dec 9 2020.

While technically it is still possible for ES to reach a new high, the chance odds for that have gone lower since VXX may have bottomed at the degree that encompasses this leg. Often VXX leads/lags the market so if this is a case of leading, it could remain close to it's low while the market moves into a top wherever that occurs- higher or not -a similar set-up happened between Jan 24 and the top on Feb 20 2020 where VXX stayed above it's low while ES cash went higher daily. We will remain patient and closely watch all vectors for more clues.

Friday, December 11, 2020

Low Target Projection- Next Up: The Real Top

EOD: Lower targets are still in focus. Vectors look like there's a little more down needed.

Update 1:34pm EST: See chart- very short term targets hit. Small bounce back up pending.

original post-
However much more there is to go down may not be significant other than the decay in breadth that accompanies it prior to eventually printing a top. A weekly decline in the breadth (nyad) print today would be a good start towards that objective.

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Reaction At Fib Extension/ 'Pi' Date- Likely Prequel Moves

Update 12:12pm EST: Chart shows internal leg fib target zones currently. It's possible that the market needs to print more negative breadth numbers prior to facilitating a negatively diverging top which is how these moves could be the prequel to a top. A retest in cash of the futures lows may happen given this potential scenario.

Pre-open: 9:09am EST: Looks like minimum 5 waves of 3 down at lower degree printed yesterday followed by wave 4 up so wave 5 down may now be printing at next degree higher.

Chart from 12/9 pre-open did react at fib extension and adjacent to Pi days increment = 10. So far Counts 5 waves down on 5min chart but could be 5 sub-waves of 3 down which would leave more to go.

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Measured Fib Extension Hit Pre-Open

EOD: Looks like 5 waves down on 5 min chart down to 3659.50 zone so could retrace from there back up. Note: 'Pi day' [=10]

Update 1:05pm EST: See upper chart

Will this ES level have any significance in consideration of incremental Pi days [= 10] zone now occurring (today/tomorrow)?

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Molasses Market Continues- Targets Still Waiting

Update 2:27pm EST: Unless ES futures lurches upward towards final targets from here, there is a chance that the approaching "Pi' date may signal a partial reversal or a pause before proceeding.

One way or another we need a hit with ES futures at 'E' zone and/or a hit on VXX at 15.77 area. Either hit could be a signal level indicating it is getting closer to a reversal.

'Pi' Date: Coming up to a Pi days increment= *10 since ES futures hit a significant prior high on 11/9/20.
*(total elapsed calendar days/3.1416). Round number 'Pi' dates from a prior noted move may produce a reaction.

actual values: 9.86/10.18 on 10/11 December respectively. Let's see if proximity to these dates shoves the molasses any faster up or down.

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Two Analysts Now See The Same 'Tell' In This Chart

It was nice to read another analyst finally spotting this 'tell' we have discussed recently on VectorSpike.

Bottom Chart is the ES futures price progression. As always- many will be blind-sided when this next decline begins so likely, there will be some structural pattern fake-outs in prices before we get there.

Courtesy of-
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/
See Critical Long-Term Review Here

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)

This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Friday, December 4, 2020

Potential Wave 'v' Length Closing In On Wave 'iii' Length.

ES 3700 price zone equates to a distance close to wave 'iii' distance if labelling applies correctly.

ES 3693.25 is a hit on the trend line drawn. If the potential megaphone pattern is valid then a pullback anywhere inside it's internal structure may occur. A few more hits on that trend line could set it up for a small top on the leg.

See Critical Long-Term Review Here