Retrace Up Continues- Projected Target Zone Unchanged

If the contracting triangle (?) trend line holds going forward in time, it may meet up with the top of the projected price zone. VXX bounced off one of it's low markers at the 24.29 zone so there may be a small market pullback from there.

The high at 3384.0 does complete a measured fib extension on the leg up from today's low 3291.25 so it is a candidate for a small pullback as noted on the coincident VXX low hit and bounce mentioned above.

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Outlook Changed- Likely Structure Now Printing

Could be a contracting triangle and aligning VXX target area with the ES futures upper target zone, it could make for a rapid decline from the top of the structure. As always- this projection is only if patterns track expectations.

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Wave [iii] Extends- Target Zone

EOD:  The short-term outlook is quite possibly changing with a retrace up currently underway which may not reach new all-time-highs since the expected divergence between a lower market price together with a positive breadth MACD value may no longer materialize. We will review once more and publish an updated chart outlook. If this confirms, then the larger decline will possibly come forward in time after the current retrace leg up completes.

Update 11:07am EST: ES 3366.75 zone (or more?) is now a valid upside target.

Low target is ES (dec) 3154-3115 price zones. (needs reviewing)

VXX still holding it's low. Watching for any reaction at ES 3340.50-

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Weekly Finish Potentially At Another Top- More Downside Still Needed

Lots of 'crash' talk in the media will probably need to be nixed before the next medium term correction occurs. The media often reflects the crowd mood which is usually incorrect or mis-timed.

Low target is ES (dec) 3154-3115 price zones.
See All Three Charts Below:

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Low Target Coming- Next Up: Bounce

The market within it's continuous upward progression (at various degrees) likes and needs to rebalance as it gets out of symmetry (price/time/both). As can be seen we currently have a relationship between the ES futures (including the cash market) and VXX that have inconsistencies of inverse symmetry. There is frequently a phase difference between VXX and the general market but the best signal occurs when inverse symmetry is close. The projection going forward we created accounts for several criteria requirements including lack of inverse symmetry between VXX and the market. Watching to see how closely this tracks. Market is in no hurry and we need to see more weekly breadth declines. 

Low target is ES (dec) 3154-3115 price zones.

Could be another three weeks before a proper decline occurs if the situation and timing is similar to Jan 21 2020 on the weekly advance-decline (nyad).

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Most Likely A Corrective Down In Process

See latest post

Overlapping prices plus other chart criteria not at optimum yet may suggest a deep retrace up after the low is hit, Otherwise we could also describe it as a 'slow unwind' prior to a medium-term corrective drop in the general market later. Chart overlay on the right is VXX which has yet to challenge it's lows one more time. 

Overnight has taken out the 'x' price so could be on it's way to completing the 'y' target(s).

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Leg Down Yet To Complete At Target Zone

Still no acceleration down at a higher degree so window is open for deep retrace whenever the low hits [A-B-C?] or more? VXX low has held since 8/26/20 but it was recently challenged within just a few pennies so looks like a significant support zone short-term. However, since the 'sweet spot' has not yet been hit (market declines at a larger degree) VXX may well need to hit something slightly lower or it could continue moving up over second resistance which is at 27.78, retrace back towards it's lows and then take-off. Patience is required right now. All alignments look like they're steadily moving in for the eventual kill.

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Still Setting Up For Next Larger Leg Down

Once the down leg has hit - either wave 3 or 5 and a retrace completes, we should be off to the down-side races again. If a new all-time-high ensues instead of a retrace then a recalculation will be forthcoming. Daily VIX has penetrated up beyond it's 200ma [29.0] so that could be significant. VIX volatility (VVIX) looks to have bottomed in the last session breaking the previous low from June 1 2020 and currently bouncing above 2 other lows subsequent to June 1 [intra-day 12:00 noon]. We would like to see the daily VIX 50ma begin to close the gap on the 200ma from here as that would support the anticipated scenario that could be developing.

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Updated chart 1:20pm EST. [TARGET ZONE 50]

Weekly Breadth In 'Bear-Cross' Territory

Either it's done with the 'A' setup or we go on to the 'B' completion.

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Weekly Vix At Support- Target Zone Likely 50-55

Update 2:07pm EST: ES futures (Sep) 3372.50 looks like a resistance zone and breadth may be testing it's intra-day lows. VXX kissed it's low price.

Update 10:31am EST: Daily VIX is bouncing between 200 and 50 ma's. Previous set up that began on 2/11 took 7 days prior to accelerating up on the daily. Currently we may be at 6 days and counting.

After the VIX hits the upper target zone (Oct/Nov?), most likely, it will head to new lows longer-term as the market rebounds to new highs in time for the next large down-leg in the unwinding of the Super Cycle third wave (wave 4's at differing degrees?)

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Fast 3 Down At Close

Update 9/17/20 7:54am EST: Top called on 9/4/20 still very much active. Wave '5' on the chart from yesterday looks more likely. Move up from 9/11 is almost fully nixed back down. For a general situation review, we have put a new chart together-

Still no conclusion to the structure.

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Upside Targets Continue

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Another Five Up- Targets

Update: 1:12pm EST: Likely NYAD confirming signal at VXX 27.78 zone if and when that occurs together with a 50ma decline which can also occur prior to the 200ma being pierced.

Update 10:16am EST: 3409.50 zone is also an extension target. Other vectors are supporting it as a potential end to this leg so watching the reaction from here. Still need a downward move on the daily NYAD 50 ma through the 200 ma to confirm but let's see how close that comes by the end of today.

Update 8:06am EST: there is a mathematical possibility that the targets for wave 'v' could be- 3399.00, 3405.25 and 3415.25

Waiting for a resolution- could be after the current keg completes. VXX is still holding it's low but could be ready to attack it or recover. If it hit's it's tipping point, upward acceleration could escalate (market declines). Still need a downward move on the daily NYAD 50 ma through the 200 ma- it has bounced twice so far but could quickly take out the 200 ma if that is the direction it is headed short-term. See bottom chart.

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Is The Era Of 'Dinosaur' Market Moves Now Upon Us?

The February 2020 market drop may well have heralded the birth of a new era in market history most likely comparable to the impact of the 1929 market correction and quite probably- it's 'alternation' complement. See Critical Long-Term Review Here

A very critical chart indicator (among several others) can be observed using the following. We have combined several overlapping charts so please bear with us while we try to disseminate it as simply as possible because that's what we have to shoot for. The market inter-relations are necessarily complex especially at critical junctures and where the scale is now this large. We have wrapped everything around the $NYAD (moving averages of breadth) chart for presentation convenience and because that is our most common 'go-to' chart as readers may already have often seen. 

Please see the prints for VXX - upper chart yellow color, SVXY- second segment and UPRO- lower segment instruments. The main take-away for this moment is that UPRO and SVXY printed similar parallel moves until the recent market decline when SVXY failed to show a recovery which often indicates that it has not yet 'bottomed'. Note the relative size difference between the decline-minus-retrace distances 'A' and 'B' which clearly demonstrates a divergence. The 'recovery' that all the other main market instruments have displayed (more or less) may only be a first stage in the corrective cycle. More market downside is likely required from here (or thereabouts) in order to effect a retrace move up in SVXY at this degree. Expectation is that it needs to take out it's 2018 lows prior to a bounce. It may not require a mega-decline at the moment but there is the possibility that as we move forward in time, a mega-decline will be required to finish the long-term review referenced above in paragraph one. 

Since a market top was flagged recently on 9/2/20, we are watching for a follow-through, accelerating downside move in the market. A fast crossover down in the $NYAD-'bear cross': 50ma(value=+119) below the 200ma(value=+92) is the next signal we are waiting for. That has not yet occurred and leaves the door open for a time delay or a retrace up/new high to print first so essentially watching indicators and price action for now. The time window could be about to close for this bear cross in breadth ma's to occur (or bounce back up?) so better to stay alert and not push the bullish mood as short term risk looks high. (VXX may well have 'bottomed').

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Vectors, Timing & Price At Critical Juncture

Fundamental vector targets and timing window zones are coinciding right at the time the ES futures has arrived at the trend line for the third time. A strong recovery up from here would be telling. A move through the targets downward would also give a potential signal supporting a price descent continuation.

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Retrace Leg Up- Targets

EOD: Looks like an alternate candidate for a fibonacci linear extension down.

Overshot the lower parallel trend line a little but did hit a linear fib extension (not shown) from 9/3 low so looks valid to go up to it's conclusion. (i-ii-iii-iv-v?)

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New Leg Up Off Next Trend Line Lower

The down trend remains intact (so far) as the futures makes it's way through the succeeding trend lines. There could be a larger retrace up that begins at this location as mentioned in a prior post. Nothing fundamental seems to have changed regarding the top that was flagged yet. We are waiting for a weekly print of breadth ($nyad) signal line to breach zero and go negative.

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EOD: 'C' needed to print lower in an A-B-C down into trend line.The daily 50ma on the cash market is at 3305 - which is very close so that could provide a pop back up.  The daily $nyad macd printed a lower closing without any positive divergence so any pop in the market could be short-lived.

Top Or Pre-Top: Details

The overlapping movement on the hourly (though it has some strength on the daily), could be indicating a pre-top decline. This is where the ES futures bottoms temporarily then heads higher but the VXX does not print a new low. Then comes the real McCoy down from a new ES high. There could also be no new high but a deep retrace on ES cash.

The current drop of 6.6% cash from the existing potential pre-top high is larger than the previous which was closer to 3.7% (78% less) so that could be a mitigating factor but not necessarily an eliminating factor since volatility is higher in the current environment. Either way, it looks like VXX has printed it's low.

The 'speculative chart' at the bottom is exactly that- speculative with a bullish leaning. It could be that we are currently in a wave 4 that is printing at several degrees including the 'big one' that has yet to come (click on the link 'Critical Long Term Review Here' below)- so we are relying on proven indicators to keep us in the correct projection. Wave 4's are notoriously twisty so remaining focused on fundamentals should keep us aligned as it develops.

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Top Flagged!- Beginning Retrace Targets

See updated chart below:

Everything appears aligned to flag a medium term top. Looks like the diagonal trend lines have joined the battle.

S&P cash long term speculative chart posted at bottom.

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EOD: FIGHTING INSIDE THE TREND LINES: Weekly breadth is on the cusp of printing a negative signal line. When that happens there may well be a continuation move down with some force.

Alternate closing print:

Time For The Dow To Catch-Up

EOD: Dow hit it's high first thing- down movement from there could be significant- it counts as potentially 5 waves down. Let's see where the retrace goes on ES futures next- it counts 5 waves down also but not a strong structural separation just yet so we shall watch for more to show itself.

UPDATE 3:07PM EST: BOTH ES AND DOW COULD BE COOKED! Dow took out 28290.70

UPDATE 11:38am EST: NOT SO FAST, ES MAY BE COOKED BUT DOW HAS TO TAKE OUT 28290.70 ( COUNT=3 DOWN ON THE DOW, 5 DOWN ON ES FUTURES))

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Bouncing Off The Throw-Over Trend Line

EOD: Several high ES targets now in range. VXX continues to climb. Watching for it to penetrate above the 38% fib above 28.13 to see if it will retest it's low zone from there or just continue advancing. Either ES or VXX will need to reverse since both are headed up together.

VXX still holding but probably needs to re-test it's low zone prior to a proper minor top forming.

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