A coincidence of vectors is pointing to a completed top at today's close. Let's look for follow-through to confirm. If VXX fails to take out 33.41, chances are good that will be a confirmation, even if ES prints a marginally higher price. Note the NYAD daily breadth has been in negative territory and today it spiked but the blue signal line is still quite low. The weekly NYAD still has positive breadth which is why it can only be seen as a short term potential top at the moment.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Friday, June 26, 2020
Potential Low- Then New High Price Targets
It is very typical for market tops to be more reliable when they synchronize with a decline in breadth particularly on the weekly NYAD (see lower left).
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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Projection- Building Negative Breadth Prior To ST Top
See latest post
Please- Ignore All The Nonsense Headlines Connected To Every Move- This Encourages 'NO SENSE' Trading Strategies. What The Market Vectors Tell Us Is Mostly Borne Out Eventually.
Let's see if we get another daily negative breadth (8 out of 14= 57% down sessions). Also, could be a second consecutive down breadth print on the weekly chart since 6/15/20 but we need to wait for the closing values to print to verify. 'Y' targets still apply. Patience is required when important junctures are forming.
Update 12:25pm EST. Looks like a resistance at 3003 zone (-161.8% on chart) so far, intra-day. Down breadth is still a strong negative value.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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Please- Ignore All The Nonsense Headlines Connected To Every Move- This Encourages 'NO SENSE' Trading Strategies. What The Market Vectors Tell Us Is Mostly Borne Out Eventually.
Let's see if we get another daily negative breadth (8 out of 14= 57% down sessions). Also, could be a second consecutive down breadth print on the weekly chart since 6/15/20 but we need to wait for the closing values to print to verify. 'Y' targets still apply. Patience is required when important junctures are forming.
Update 12:25pm EST. Looks like a resistance at 3003 zone (-161.8% on chart) so far, intra-day. Down breadth is still a strong negative value.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
Bottom Target Then Gap Fill Top?
EOD: Could still require another wave down to complete at 2955- 2986 zones or simply a retest of the current low at 3005. Hopefully, that would give a weekly decline in breadth that might set it up for a top to arrive higher up on ES.
Another day or two of declining breadth averages would set up a divergence to form so that a hit on Y may precipitate a short term decline in the market.
Expectation going forward is that moves will generally be 'bigger than normal' so the scale of movements will deceive price watchers which is what has been occurring for a while now with alternating panic and then exuberant headlines quoting price moves in the market major indexes. Wrong approach- we use empirical vector moves and let prices fall where they may. The same empirical vector moves and signals will apply equally to huge price moves as well as lesser ones. As long as we perform the analysis accurately, the process is a superior way to disseminate the rise, fall and reversals in the market.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Another day or two of declining breadth averages would set up a divergence to form so that a hit on Y may precipitate a short term decline in the market.
Expectation going forward is that moves will generally be 'bigger than normal' so the scale of movements will deceive price watchers which is what has been occurring for a while now with alternating panic and then exuberant headlines quoting price moves in the market major indexes. Wrong approach- we use empirical vector moves and let prices fall where they may. The same empirical vector moves and signals will apply equally to huge price moves as well as lesser ones. As long as we perform the analysis accurately, the process is a superior way to disseminate the rise, fall and reversals in the market.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Price Moves Still On Target
EOD: Should be a sling shot to new highs in the next session(s). Then watch for hits on Y in VXX that could print a reversal in the market.
Update: 12:50pm EST. Lower targets at 3017.25 and 3003.25 zones. Hourly histo bars have flattened at 3019.75 so that is a good candidate for a reversal back up to new highs in the market although we need to wait for the closing print to confirm.
The large down print on breadth has brought out the 'panic' headlines again. More often- dramatic, continuing down moves occur on minimal but increasing down breadth and with an existing negative divergence which we do not have yet on the weekly. Market may have already put in it's low for today at 3019.75.
See Chart Updated 10:30am EST below (could be a retest of the 6/23 overnight low)
Nothing so far to divert from the Y target zone shown. Daily breadth signal (blue on lower left NYAD chart) is negative. Minor adjustment to W and X positions based on yesterday's vector move.
It took 11x 4 hr candles to print X after W. So far, we have 2x 4 hr candles after X has printed so could be in for a wait- perhaps while the breadth signal digs a deeper negative value. Best scenario regarding declining breadth would be for daily negative signals to print sufficient to create a decline on the weekly. It is not required of course. As targets print, we will note vector reactions.
Reminder- it does appear that the VXX low which printed on 6/5/20 may continue to hold. We have seen this before at a number of 'tops'. While ES and the general market print higher prices, the next higher VXX 'low' target prints, then it's off to the races. Let's see if that transpires here.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update: 12:50pm EST. Lower targets at 3017.25 and 3003.25 zones. Hourly histo bars have flattened at 3019.75 so that is a good candidate for a reversal back up to new highs in the market although we need to wait for the closing print to confirm.
The large down print on breadth has brought out the 'panic' headlines again. More often- dramatic, continuing down moves occur on minimal but increasing down breadth and with an existing negative divergence which we do not have yet on the weekly. Market may have already put in it's low for today at 3019.75.
See Chart Updated 10:30am EST below (could be a retest of the 6/23 overnight low)
Nothing so far to divert from the Y target zone shown. Daily breadth signal (blue on lower left NYAD chart) is negative. Minor adjustment to W and X positions based on yesterday's vector move.
It took 11x 4 hr candles to print X after W. So far, we have 2x 4 hr candles after X has printed so could be in for a wait- perhaps while the breadth signal digs a deeper negative value. Best scenario regarding declining breadth would be for daily negative signals to print sufficient to create a decline on the weekly. It is not required of course. As targets print, we will note vector reactions.
Reminder- it does appear that the VXX low which printed on 6/5/20 may continue to hold. We have seen this before at a number of 'tops'. While ES and the general market print higher prices, the next higher VXX 'low' target prints, then it's off to the races. Let's see if that transpires here.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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Tuesday, June 23, 2020
Vector Pattern Projection- Clearing Price Targets
A more reliable pattern has been spotted for price projections. The muddy advancement on ES CASH vs volatility derivative VXX now appears to have settled into a recognizable sequence. Expectation is that once the target zone Y-Y is hit, there could be a reversal from there in the market.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Monday, June 22, 2020
Possible 5 Down - 3 Up Underway With Targets
A negative breadth signal on the NYAD intra-day but a strong positive on the weekly may point to a short-term topping signal developing. VXX may need to complete the move it has started somewhere higher up prior to a reversal back down as the market reverses to higher prices later on.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Friday, June 19, 2020
This Down Move Could Prove Significant
Commentary: Trading blogs are showing little to no concern as the majority are in the bullish camp. While entirely possible that there could be more upside, if the majority see blue skies, well, you know, we look at charts and underlying vectors and only report on those potential signals. There are still gaps higher up in the DOW and S&P 500. The weekly breadth has not printed a negative value yet but the daily has just crossed into negative territory. Looks likely there will be a continuing short term move down at the least. Anything more will show us most likely in the next few sessions.
EOD: There are now two reasonably significant down moves- the second could be the beginning of the topping pattern acceleration down. There is a fib extension hit so there could be a retrace (or more downside to go prior to a retrace). The second move did print marginally higher in cash so technically the pair could be a pre-top/top as these do occur in sequence about 60-70% of the time. Associated vectors supported the first move as being significant and so far on the second move, vectors could stand to print more which may happen if the leg has more to go beyond 3056.75.
Original post:
Higher targets versus declining breadth (lower chart- daily NYAD) and a potential pre-top move in ES cash. Let's see how the week closes today.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
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EOD: There are now two reasonably significant down moves- the second could be the beginning of the topping pattern acceleration down. There is a fib extension hit so there could be a retrace (or more downside to go prior to a retrace). The second move did print marginally higher in cash so technically the pair could be a pre-top/top as these do occur in sequence about 60-70% of the time. Associated vectors supported the first move as being significant and so far on the second move, vectors could stand to print more which may happen if the leg has more to go beyond 3056.75.
Original post:
Higher targets versus declining breadth (lower chart- daily NYAD) and a potential pre-top move in ES cash. Let's see how the week closes today.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
Market Target- Close That Gap!
EOD: Finally got a daily close with negative breadth signal- so that is at least a start.
Update1:20pm EST. Market is trying very hard to create a negative breadth signal print on the daily. There may not be any real down moves to talk about until negative breadth signals start printing at least on the daily. The weekly has a long way to go before it turns negative.
Original post:
Looks very much like the gap will need to be closed before the market can create the next move. VXX is holding a strong position relatively so we will see how much more the market will advance. The down move on 6/16/20 had sufficient vector movements to consider it a pre-top move unless down side follow-through occurs prior to a new high which would make it a top move. The pre-top scenario looks more likely with the lack of downside follow-through today together with the fact that breadth still does not have a negative signal value on MACD: [12, 26 (+1.793), 29] but the signal 26(+1.793) could easily slip to a negative value if the potential pre-top move heads a tad lower.
If it is a pre-top move, more downside could be possible prior to a new high. Potential downside targets are 3050 to 3000 ES zone (cash) before a new high at or above 3162.75 at which time a negative breadth signal could be in place facilitating a more likely potential top.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update1:20pm EST. Market is trying very hard to create a negative breadth signal print on the daily. There may not be any real down moves to talk about until negative breadth signals start printing at least on the daily. The weekly has a long way to go before it turns negative.
Original post:
Looks very much like the gap will need to be closed before the market can create the next move. VXX is holding a strong position relatively so we will see how much more the market will advance. The down move on 6/16/20 had sufficient vector movements to consider it a pre-top move unless down side follow-through occurs prior to a new high which would make it a top move. The pre-top scenario looks more likely with the lack of downside follow-through today together with the fact that breadth still does not have a negative signal value on MACD: [12, 26 (+1.793), 29] but the signal 26(+1.793) could easily slip to a negative value if the potential pre-top move heads a tad lower.
If it is a pre-top move, more downside could be possible prior to a new high. Potential downside targets are 3050 to 3000 ES zone (cash) before a new high at or above 3162.75 at which time a negative breadth signal could be in place facilitating a more likely potential top.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Micro-Leg Minimum Target Gap
See latest post
Context: Be sure to read post 'Something Is Very Wrong With This Picture'
Update:11:27pm EST. Daily breadth is making another attempt to break negative ($nyad MACD signal). A negative daily closing could be significant in the current environment.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Context: Be sure to read post 'Something Is Very Wrong With This Picture'
Update:11:27pm EST. Daily breadth is making another attempt to break negative ($nyad MACD signal). A negative daily closing could be significant in the current environment.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Something Is Very Wrong With This Picture
EOD: All the vectors aligned today as in a reversal scenario. Whether the island tops close or not in the next session, it looks like a market acceleration down is most likely imminent.
Update 12:00pm EST ES futures Sep 16 2020 (3156.25) is very close to a fib extension at 3151.00 so that puts that hit close in to a potential top. So far there has been a downward reaction from there in the market. The vectors that moved after that hit did so in a typical topping fashion. Follow-through will be needed to confirm as the breadth is holding up so far and not at a negative value as far as the MACD signal. It is not required but would be more typical to see a negative value on breadth if there's to be a follow-through. There is overlap into the gaps on INDU and SPX 'island tops' so we will have to see if they will be closed up which will void the island top as a defined structure.
Original post:
At VectorSpike we have gone out on a limb more than once recently only for the market to outdo even our extreme scenarios. The situation looking at these charts looks unlike anything we have encountered and we are not sure how it is going to resolve exactly but it looks very precarious at the moment and almost un-definable in conventional terms. Look at the potential 'island top' and the relative retrace shortfalls between SVXY and INDU (and SPX). Even with the adjustments to SVXY at the beginning of 2018, it does not look any where near the correct relative positioning. Typically, lagging this way would mean more downside to exhaust SVXY's bearish move so it can rebound. That has not happened yet. Short term moves could of course do pretty much anything but the longer term looks extremely odd if it is to continue in a bullish market scenario.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update 12:00pm EST ES futures Sep 16 2020 (3156.25) is very close to a fib extension at 3151.00 so that puts that hit close in to a potential top. So far there has been a downward reaction from there in the market. The vectors that moved after that hit did so in a typical topping fashion. Follow-through will be needed to confirm as the breadth is holding up so far and not at a negative value as far as the MACD signal. It is not required but would be more typical to see a negative value on breadth if there's to be a follow-through. There is overlap into the gaps on INDU and SPX 'island tops' so we will have to see if they will be closed up which will void the island top as a defined structure.
Original post:
At VectorSpike we have gone out on a limb more than once recently only for the market to outdo even our extreme scenarios. The situation looking at these charts looks unlike anything we have encountered and we are not sure how it is going to resolve exactly but it looks very precarious at the moment and almost un-definable in conventional terms. Look at the potential 'island top' and the relative retrace shortfalls between SVXY and INDU (and SPX). Even with the adjustments to SVXY at the beginning of 2018, it does not look any where near the correct relative positioning. Typically, lagging this way would mean more downside to exhaust SVXY's bearish move so it can rebound. That has not happened yet. Short term moves could of course do pretty much anything but the longer term looks extremely odd if it is to continue in a bullish market scenario.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Monday, June 15, 2020
Another Retrace Up Attempt- Targets Hitting
Update 8:42pm EST.
Update 1:00pm EST. ES gap from 6/12/20 filled.
Intra-day breadth has a negative value on the signal indicator for the first time since 5/13/20. Vectors are not yet showing an indication of the market bottoming. It is not required but in the present environment they would normally be expected to print a signal prior to bottoming. Most likely, the market is filling some open inventory.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Update 1:00pm EST. ES gap from 6/12/20 filled.
Intra-day breadth has a negative value on the signal indicator for the first time since 5/13/20. Vectors are not yet showing an indication of the market bottoming. It is not required but in the present environment they would normally be expected to print a signal prior to bottoming. Most likely, the market is filling some open inventory.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Friday, June 12, 2020
Possible Retrace Completed- Price Targets
See latest post
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Not So Fast Crash Callers
We have looked at the this 'crash' scenario and surmised it could go either way. You heard that right.
The Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 high may yet need to print. In that event, there may be a slightly better chance for the green arrow move. See ES chart print below:
If this scenario is to play out, we should see some vector signal clues soon.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
The Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 high may yet need to print. In that event, there may be a slightly better chance for the green arrow move. See ES chart print below:
If this scenario is to play out, we should see some vector signal clues soon.
1918 Pandemic Did Not Tank The Market!
See Critical Long-Term Review Here
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